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Updated: 2007 OCT 13, 23:05 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Nov 12 UT, the 71 km diameter asteroid (322) Phaeo will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a path across Papua New Guinea passing near Madang. Then across north-western Australia passing near Kununurra, Fitzroy Crossing and Kalbarri.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 11.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
112 37 13 -29 0 0 15 41 7 37 11 -43 111 59 42 113 14 53 111 30 33 113 44 22
113 43 25 -28 0 0 15 40 55 38 10 -44 113 5 58 114 21 2 112 36 53 114 50 29
114 50 10 -27 0 0 15 40 43 39 9 -45 114 12 45 115 27 45 113 43 41 115 57 12
115 57 30 -26 0 0 15 40 30 40 8 -46 115 20 5 116 35 6 114 51 2 117 4 34
117 5 32 -25 0 0 15 40 16 41 7 -47 116 28 5 117 43 10 115 59 0 118 12 40
118 14 19 -24 0 0 15 40 2 42 6 -48 117 36 48 118 52 2 117 7 41 119 21 35
119 23 56 -23 0 0 15 39 48 43 4 -49 118 46 20 120 1 46 118 17 8 120 31 25
120 34 29 -22 0 0 15 39 33 44 3 -50 119 56 45 121 12 28 119 27 27 121 42 14
121 46 3 -21 0 0 15 39 18 46 2 -51 121 8 8 122 24 12 120 38 43 122 54 8
122 58 44 -20 0 0 15 39 2 47 0 -52 122 20 36 123 37 7 121 51 2 124 7 13
124 12 38 -19 0 0 15 38 46 48 359 -53 123 34 15 124 51 16 123 4 29 125 21 36
125 27 51 -18 0 0 15 38 30 48 357 -54 124 49 10 126 6 48 124 19 12 126 37 23
126 44 31 -17 0 0 15 38 13 49 355 -55 126 5 30 127 23 50 125 35 16 127 54 43
128 2 46 -16 0 0 15 37 55 50 353 -56 127 23 21 128 42 30 126 52 49 129 13 44
129 22 45 -15 0 0 15 37 37 51 351 -56 128 42 52 130 2 57 128 12 0 130 34 34
130 44 37 -14 0 0 15 37 19 52 349 -57 130 4 13 131 25 22 129 32 58 131 57 25
132 8 32 -13 0 0 15 37 0 53 347 -58 131 27 34 132 49 55 130 55 52 133 22 28
133 34 44 -12 0 0 15 36 40 53 345 -58 132 53 6 134 16 48 132 20 54 134 49 56
135 3 26 -11 0 0 15 36 20 54 342 -59 134 21 2 135 46 18 133 48 16 136 20 4
136 34 53 -10 0 0 15 35 59 54 340 -59 135 51 38 137 18 39 135 18 14 137 53 9
138 9 24 - 9 0 0 15 35 38 55 337 -59 137 25 10 138 54 12 136 51 2 139 29 32
139 47 20 - 8 0 0 15 35 16 55 334 -59 139 1 59 140 33 18 138 27 1 141 9 36
141 29 6 - 7 0 0 15 34 53 55 332 -59 140 42 28 142 16 25 140 6 33 142 53 49
143 15 11 - 6 0 0 15 34 30 55 329 -59 142 27 5 144 4 4 141 50 5 144 42 46
145 6 13 - 5 0 0 15 34 5 55 326 -58 144 16 24 145 56 56 143 38 7 146 37 9
147 2 57 - 4 0 0 15 33 40 55 322 -58 146 11 6 147 55 49 145 31 20 148 37 50
149 6 19 - 3 0 0 15 33 14 54 319 -57 148 12 4 150 1 48 147 30 33 150 45 59
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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