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Updated: 2007 SEP 25, 22:56 UT
Event Rank : 27
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Oct 07 UT, the 29 km diameter asteroid (3687) Dzus will occult a 8.7 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a large uncertainty path running down the Northern Territory/Queensland border, then gradually into New South Wales and over into Victoria,
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.9 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
154 15 3 -41 0 0 16 5 40 6 293 -32 153 39 2 154 52 19 150 56 41 158 20 27
152 17 45 -40 0 0 16 5 36 7 294 -33 151 45 45 152 50 39 149 19 0 155 48 35
150 37 45 -39 0 0 16 5 31 9 295 -35 150 8 37 151 7 34 147 53 32 153 45 48
149 10 49 -38 0 0 16 5 25 10 296 -37 148 43 52 149 38 19 146 37 54 152 2 27
147 54 17 -37 0 0 16 5 19 12 297 -38 147 29 2 148 19 56 145 30 27 150 33 23
146 46 16 -36 0 0 16 5 12 13 297 -39 146 22 27 147 10 28 144 29 57 149 15 26
145 45 29 -35 0 0 16 5 5 14 298 -41 145 22 50 146 8 27 143 35 28 148 6 31
144 50 55 -34 0 0 16 4 58 15 298 -42 144 29 15 145 12 51 142 46 17 147 5 11
144 1 46 -33 0 0 16 4 50 17 299 -43 143 40 57 144 22 50 142 1 48 146 10 19
143 17 27 -32 0 0 16 4 42 18 299 -44 142 57 23 143 37 45 141 21 32 145 21 5
142 37 28 -31 0 0 16 4 34 19 299 -45 142 18 2 142 57 6 140 45 6 144 36 49
142 1 23 -30 0 0 16 4 26 20 299 -47 141 42 31 142 20 26 140 12 11 143 57 0
141 28 53 -29 0 0 16 4 17 20 299 -48 141 10 31 141 47 24 139 42 28 143 21 12
140 59 39 -28 0 0 16 4 8 21 299 -49 140 41 44 141 17 43 139 15 45 142 49 4
140 33 28 -27 0 0 16 3 59 22 299 -50 140 15 57 140 51 7 138 51 48 142 20 18
140 10 6 -26 0 0 16 3 50 23 299 -51 139 52 57 140 27 24 138 30 27 141 54 38
139 49 24 -25 0 0 16 3 41 24 299 -52 139 32 34 140 6 22 138 11 33 141 31 52
139 31 11 -24 0 0 16 3 31 25 299 -53 139 14 38 139 47 51 137 54 57 141 11 48
139 15 19 -23 0 0 16 3 21 25 298 -54 138 59 2 139 31 43 137 40 33 140 54 18
139 1 42 -22 0 0 16 3 11 26 298 -55 138 45 38 139 17 52 137 28 14 140 39 13
138 50 13 -21 0 0 16 3 1 27 298 -55 138 34 22 139 6 10 137 17 55 140 26 25
138 40 46 -20 0 0 16 2 51 27 298 -56 138 25 6 138 56 32 137 9 31 140 15 48
138 33 18 -19 0 0 16 2 40 28 297 -57 138 17 48 138 48 54 137 2 59 140 7 18
138 27 44 -18 0 0 16 2 29 28 297 -58 138 12 22 138 43 11 136 58 13 140 0 50
138 24 0 -17 0 0 16 2 19 29 296 -59 138 8 46 138 39 20 136 55 12 139 56 19
138 22 4 -16 0 0 16 2 8 30 296 -59 138 6 56 138 37 17 136 53 53 139 53 43
138 21 53 -15 0 0 16 1 56 30 295 -60 138 6 51 138 37 1 136 54 13 139 52 58
138 23 25 -14 0 0 16 1 45 30 295 -61 138 8 28 138 38 29 136 56 11 139 54 2
138 26 39 -13 0 0 16 1 34 31 294 -61 138 11 45 138 41 39 136 59 45 139 56 54
138 31 33 -12 0 0 16 1 22 31 294 -62 138 16 41 138 46 30 137 4 54 140 1 32
138 38 6 -11 0 0 16 1 10 32 293 -63 138 23 16 138 53 2 137 11 37 140 7 55
138 46 18 -10 0 0 16 0 58 32 293 -63 138 31 29 139 1 13 137 19 54 140 16 3
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