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Updated: 2007 AUG 31, 00:58 UT
Event Rank : 61
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Sep 27 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (1036) Ganymed will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Canis Minor for observers along a narrow path across Australia from norht of Port Headland across South Australia from north-west to south east, across south west Victoria and down the west coast of Tasmania. Adelaide and Hobart are just on the one sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
147 28 37 -45 0 0 18 47 39 33 42 -12 147 5 34 147 51 33 146 18 39 148 37 30
146 48 56 -44 0 0 18 47 34 34 43 -12 146 26 4 147 11 40 145 39 31 147 57 16
146 8 1 -43 0 0 18 47 29 34 44 -13 145 45 18 146 30 36 144 59 4 147 15 52
145 25 50 -42 0 0 18 47 24 35 45 -14 145 3 16 145 48 17 144 17 16 146 33 17
144 42 22 -41 0 0 18 47 19 35 47 -15 144 19 54 145 4 43 143 34 7 145 49 29
143 57 34 -40 0 0 18 47 13 35 48 -16 143 35 11 144 19 51 142 49 32 145 4 27
143 11 24 -39 0 0 18 47 8 35 49 -16 142 49 4 143 33 37 142 3 30 144 18 7
142 23 48 -38 0 0 18 47 3 35 51 -17 142 1 29 142 46 0 141 15 58 143 30 26
141 34 43 -37 0 0 18 46 57 36 52 -18 141 12 23 141 56 55 140 26 50 142 41 20
140 44 4 -36 0 0 18 46 51 36 53 -19 140 21 42 141 6 18 139 36 4 141 50 47
139 51 47 -35 0 0 18 46 46 36 55 -20 139 29 21 140 14 5 138 43 33 140 58 40
138 57 46 -34 0 0 18 46 40 36 56 -21 138 35 13 139 20 10 137 49 12 140 4 56
138 1 55 -33 0 0 18 46 34 35 58 -22 137 39 14 138 24 26 136 52 54 139 9 28
137 4 6 -32 0 0 18 46 28 35 59 -23 136 41 14 137 26 48 135 54 31 138 12 9
136 4 12 -31 0 0 18 46 22 35 61 -25 135 41 7 136 27 6 134 53 54 137 12 51
135 2 2 -30 0 0 18 46 16 35 62 -26 134 38 41 135 25 12 133 50 53 136 11 27
133 57 27 -29 0 0 18 46 10 34 63 -27 133 33 45 134 20 55 132 45 16 135 7 46
132 50 12 -28 0 0 18 46 3 34 65 -28 132 26 7 133 14 3 131 36 48 134 1 36
131 40 3 -27 0 0 18 45 57 33 66 -30 131 15 31 132 4 20 130 25 12 132 52 43
130 26 41 -26 0 0 18 45 51 33 68 -31 130 1 37 130 51 30 129 10 8 131 40 52
129 9 46 -25 0 0 18 45 44 32 69 -32 128 44 3 129 35 12 127 51 11 130 25 44
127 48 51 -24 0 0 18 45 37 31 71 -34 127 22 22 128 15 1 126 27 51 129 6 56
126 23 24 -23 0 0 18 45 31 30 72 -35 125 56 0 126 50 26 124 59 29 127 44 0
124 52 43 -22 0 0 18 45 24 29 73 -37 124 24 13 125 20 48 123 25 18 126 16 21
123 15 57 -21 0 0 18 45 17 28 75 -39 122 46 6 123 45 20 121 44 12 124 43 16
121 31 57 -20 0 0 18 45 10 27 76 -41 121 0 24 122 2 54 119 54 45 123 3 48
119 39 6 -19 0 0 18 45 3 25 77 -43 119 5 23 120 12 5 117 54 52 121 16 41
117 35 6 -18 0 0 18 44 56 23 79 -45 116 58 31 118 10 45 115 41 24 119 20 11
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
116 0 0 -17 18 4 18 44 51 22 79 -47 -17 34 27 -17 1 47 -18 7 56 -16 29 16
115 0 0 -16 53 23 18 44 48 21 80 -48 -17 9 38 -16 37 15 -17 42 48 -16 5 0
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