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Updated: 2007 JUL 04, 19:01 UT
Event Rank : 63
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Jul 13 UT, the 67 km diameter asteroid (1306) Scythia will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path of some uncertainty across the south-western corner of the south island of New Zealand, passing over Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.8 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
167 57 44 -46 25 7 7 29 26 59 62 -22 167 28 51 -46 31 28 168 26 25 -46 18 40 166 32 12 -46 43 34 169 21 28 -46 5 55
167 26 39 -45 11 45 7 29 43 59 64 -21 166 58 22 -45 18 0 167 54 45 -45 5 26 166 2 54 -45 29 52 168 48 41 -44 52 55
166 55 29 -43 58 43 7 30 0 60 66 -21 166 27 44 -44 4 51 167 23 1 -43 52 30 165 33 23 -44 16 30 168 15 56 -43 40 13
166 24 11 -42 45 57 7 30 17 60 69 -20 165 56 57 -42 51 58 166 51 13 -42 39 51 165 3 38 -43 3 25 167 43 10 -42 27 47
165 52 44 -41 33 24 7 30 35 60 71 -19 165 25 59 -41 39 19 166 19 18 -41 27 24 164 33 36 -41 50 34 167 10 21 -41 15 33
165 21 6 -40 21 3 7 30 52 60 74 -19 164 54 48 -40 26 52 165 47 13 -40 15 9 164 3 18 -40 37 54 166 37 26 -40 3 31
164 49 15 -39 8 50 7 31 9 60 76 -18 164 23 22 -39 14 33 165 14 58 -39 3 3 163 32 42 -39 25 24 166 4 24 -38 51 36
164 17 10 -37 56 44 7 31 26 60 79 -18 163 51 40 -38 2 21 164 42 30 -37 51 3 163 1 46 -38 13 1 165 31 13 -37 39 48
163 44 48 -36 44 42 7 31 44 60 81 -17 163 19 40 -36 50 13 164 9 47 -36 39 7 162 30 28 -37 0 42 164 57 49 -36 28 3
163 12 8 -35 32 42 7 32 1 60 84 -16 162 47 20 -35 38 7 163 36 47 -35 27 12 161 58 48 -35 48 25 164 24 12 -35 16 20
162 39 8 -34 20 41 7 32 18 59 86 -15 162 14 39 -34 26 0 163 3 28 -34 15 17 161 26 44 -34 36 7 163 50 18 -34 4 35
162 5 45 -33 8 37 7 32 35 59 88 -15 161 41 33 -33 13 51 162 29 49 -33 3 18 160 54 12 -33 23 47 163 16 6 -32 52 48
161 31 58 -31 56 27 7 32 52 58 90 -14 161 8 2 -32 1 35 161 55 46 -31 51 14 160 21 13 -32 11 21 162 41 33 -31 40 54
160 57 45 -30 44 9 7 33 10 58 93 -13 160 34 3 -30 49 12 161 21 18 -30 39 2 159 47 43 -30 58 47 162 6 37 -30 28 53
160 23 2 -29 31 41 7 33 27 58 95 -12 159 59 34 -29 36 39 160 46 22 -29 26 40 159 13 41 -29 46 3 161 31 15 -29 16 41
159 47 47 -28 19 0 7 33 44 57 97 -12 159 24 32 -28 23 52 160 10 55 -28 14 4 158 39 3 -28 33 5 160 55 25 -28 4 16
159 11 59 -27 6 4 7 34 1 56 99 -11 158 48 55 -27 10 50 159 34 55 -27 1 13 158 3 47 -27 19 52 160 19 4 -26 51 36
158 35 33 -25 52 48 7 34 19 56 101 -10 158 12 39 -25 57 29 158 58 19 -25 48 3 157 27 51 -26 6 20 159 42 9 -25 38 37
157 58 26 -24 39 11 7 34 36 55 103 -9 157 35 41 -24 43 46 158 21 3 -24 34 32 156 51 11 -24 52 27 159 4 36 -24 25 16
157 20 35 -23 25 10 7 34 53 54 104 -8 156 57 58 -23 29 39 157 43 5 -23 20 36 156 13 44 -23 38 8 158 26 22 -23 11 32
156 41 57 -22 10 40 7 35 10 53 106 -7 156 19 27 -22 15 4 157 4 20 -22 6 12 155 35 25 -22 23 21 157 47 24 -21 57 19
156 2 27 -20 55 40 7 35 27 52 107 -6 155 40 2 -20 59 57 156 24 44 -20 51 18 154 56 11 -21 8 2 157 7 37 -20 42 36
155 22 0 -19 40 4 7 35 45 52 109 -5 154 59 40 -19 44 15 155 44 12 -19 35 48 154 15 58 -19 52 8 156 26 57 -19 27 18
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