RASNZ Occultation Section - 1994 JR1 Occultation Update

ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (15810) 1994 JR1 - 2007 JUL 07

Updated: 2007 JUN 06, 19:00 UT

Event Rank : 0

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).

THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

On 2007 Jul 07 UT, the 167 km diameter Trans-Neptunian asteroid (15810) 1994 JR1 will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along an extremely large uncertainty path passing near Australia or New Zealand.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 11.2 mag to 23.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.4 seconds. Note that the predicted time and path should be taken as a guide only - the time could prove to be in error by as much as an hour or more and the path could shift anywhere in the mapped region.

This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :

Event Rank : 0
Date and approx. UT time of event : 2007 Jul 07, 16:12 - 2007 Jul 07, 16:20 UT
(Refer to map(s) for your own location)
Magnitude of target star : 12.0
Magnitude drop [mag] : 11.2
Estimated maximum duration [s] : 7.4
Phase of moon, angular distance : 50 % sunlit, 108° distance
Sun : 162° distance
Rough path description : New Zealand

Data for the target star :

Name : UCAC2 23931602
Constellation : Sagittarius
J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"]: RA: 17 49 15.4950 DE: -20 08 34.237
Position source : mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2
Standard error : RA,DE ["]: ( .037, .038 )
V mag [mag] : 12.0
B mag [mag] : 0.0
Remarks : (none)

Data for the minor planet :

Number, name : (15810) 1994 JR1
Approx. diameter [km] : 167
Approx. diameter [arcsec] : .007
Distance from Earth [AU] : 34.02800
Source of used astrometry : MPC (via Astdys)
Number of used observations : 43
Number of rejected observations : 0
Time covered by the observations : 1994 May 12 - 2000 Jun 25
1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : 5.467, 0.911, 93°
Remarks : (none)
Orbital Elements for (15810) 1994 JR1 :
Update computed by : Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).

The Occultation Path :

Approximate projected width [km] : 214
Uncertainty interval [path widths] : +/- 139.19 (1 sigma)
Uncertainty interval [seconds] : +/- 5589.7 (1 sigma)
Uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["] : (+/- 5.460 +/- .954) (1 sigma)
Uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : ( 5.467", .912", 93° ) (1 sigma)
Approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 22.6133
Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Co-ordinates :

                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    112  0  0   -58 46 42   16 16  3    50   339   -54  -57 48 42  -59 45 30    5  1 22   .. .. ..
    113  0  0   -58 42 49   16 16  1    50   338   -54  -57 44 46  -59 41 40    5  7 37   .. .. ..
    114  0  0   -58 38 41   16 15 58    50   337   -54  -57 40 35  -59 37 36    5 14 15   .. .. ..
    115  0  0   -58 34 19   16 15 56    50   335   -54  -57 36  9  -59 33 17    5 21 15   .. .. ..
    116  0  0   -58 29 42   16 15 53    50   334   -54  -57 31 29  -59 28 44    5 28 38   .. .. ..

    117  0  0   -58 24 51   16 15 51    49   332   -54  -57 26 34  -59 23 57    5 36 22   .. .. ..
    118  0  0   -58 19 45   16 15 48    49   331   -54  -57 21 24  -59 18 55    5 44 29   .. .. ..
    119  0  0   -58 14 25   16 15 46    49   329   -54  -57 16  0  -59 13 39    5 52 57   .. .. ..
    120  0  0   -58  8 50   16 15 43    49   328   -54  -57 10 20  -59  8  9    6  1 47   .. .. ..
    121  0  0   -58  3  0   16 15 41    49   327   -54  -57  4 26  -59  2 23    6 10 59   .. .. ..

    122  0  0   -57 56 55   16 15 38    48   325   -54  -56 58 17  -58 56 23    6 20 32   .. .. ..
    123  0  0   -57 50 35   16 15 36    48   324   -54  -56 51 52  -58 50  8    6 30 27   .. .. ..
    124  0  0   -57 44  0   16 15 33    48   322   -54  -56 45 12  -58 43 39    6 40 43   .. .. ..
    125  0  0   -57 37 10   16 15 30    48   321   -54  -56 38 18  -58 36 54    6 51 20   .. .. ..
    126  0  0   -57 30  5   16 15 28    47   320   -54  -56 31  7  -58 29 54    7  2 19   .. .. ..

    127  0  0   -57 22 45   16 15 25    47   318   -54  -56 23 42  -58 22 40    7 13 38   .. .. ..
    128  0  0   -57 15 10   16 15 23    47   317   -54  -56 16  1  -58 15 10    7 25 18   .. .. ..
    129  0  0   -57  7 19   16 15 20    47   316   -54  -56  8  5  -58  7 25    7 37 19   .. .. ..
    130  0  0   -56 59 13   16 15 18    46   314   -54  -55 59 53  -57 59 25    7 49 40   .. .. ..
    131  0  0   -56 50 52   16 15 15    46   313   -54  -55 51 26  -57 51  9    8  2 21   .. .. ..

    132  0  0   -56 42 15   16 15 13    46   312   -54  -55 42 43  -57 42 38    8 15 23   .. .. ..
    133  0  0   -56 33 22   16 15 10    45   310   -54  -55 33 45  -57 33 52    8 28 44   .. .. ..
    134  0  0   -56 24 14   16 15  7    45   309   -54  -55 24 30  -57 24 50    8 42 25   .. .. ..
    135  0  0   -56 14 50   16 15  5    45   308   -54  -55 15  0  -57 15 32    8 56 25   .. .. ..
    136  0  0   -56  5 10   16 15  2    44   306   -54  -55  5 14  -57  5 59    9 10 45   .. .. ..

    137  0  0   -55 55 14   16 15  0    44   305   -54  -54 55 12  -56 56 10    9 25 23   .. .. ..
    138  0  0   -55 45  3   16 14 57    44   304   -53  -54 44 54  -56 46  5    9 40 20   .. .. ..
    139  0  0   -55 34 35   16 14 55    43   303   -53  -54 34 21  -56 35 44    9 55 36   .. .. ..
    140  0  0   -55 23 52   16 14 52    43   301   -53  -54 23 31  -56 25  7   10 11 10   .. .. ..
    141  0  0   -55 12 52   16 14 50    43   300   -53  -54 12 25  -56 14 15   10 27  3   .. .. ..

    142  0  0   -55  1 37   16 14 47    42   299   -53  -54  1  2  -56  3  6   10 43 12   .. .. ..
    143  0  0   -54 50  5   16 14 44    42   298   -53  -53 49 24  -55 51 41   10 59 40   .. .. ..
    144  0  0   -54 38 17   16 14 42    41   297   -52  -53 37 30  -55 40  0   11 16 24   .. .. ..
    145  0  0   -54 26 13   16 14 39    41   295   -52  -53 25 19  -55 28  3   11 33 25   .. .. ..
    146  0  0   -54 13 52   16 14 37    41   294   -52  -53 12 52  -55 15 49   11 50 43   .. .. ..

    147  0  0   -54  1 16   16 14 34    40   293   -52  -53  0  9  -55  3 20   12  8 17   .. .. ..
    148  0  0   -53 48 23   16 14 32    40   292   -51  -52 47  9  -54 50 34   12 26  7   .. .. ..
    149  0  0   -53 35 13   16 14 29    39   291   -51  -52 33 53  -54 37 31   12 44 12   .. .. ..
    150  0  0   -53 21 48   16 14 27    39   290   -51  -52 20 21  -54 24 13   13  2 33   .. .. ..
    151  0  0   -53  8  6   16 14 24    38   288   -50  -52  6 33  -54 10 38   13 21  8   .. .. ..

    152  0  0   -52 54  8   16 14 22    38   287   -50  -51 52 28  -53 56 46   13 39 58   .. .. ..
    153  0  0   -52 39 53   16 14 19    37   286   -50  -51 38  7  -53 42 39   13 59  2   .. .. ..
    154  0  0   -52 25 23   16 14 17    37   285   -49  -51 23 30  -53 28 15   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    155  0  0   -52 10 36   16 14 14    36   284   -49  -51  8 37  -53 13 34   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    156  0  0   -51 55 33   16 14 12    36   283   -48  -50 53 28  -52 58 38   .. .. ..   .. .. ..

    157  0  0   -51 40 14   16 14  9    35   282   -48  -50 38  2  -52 43 25   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    158  0  0   -51 24 39   16 14  7    35   281   -48  -50 22 21  -52 27 56   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    159  0  0   -51  8 47   16 14  4    34   280   -47  -50  6 24  -52 12 12   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    160  0  0   -50 52 40   16 14  2    33   279   -47  -49 50 11  -51 56 11   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    161  0  0   -50 36 17   16 14  0    33   278   -46  -49 33 42  -51 39 54   .. .. ..   .. .. ..

    162  0  0   -50 19 39   16 13 57    32   277   -46  -49 16 58  -51 23 21   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    163  0  0   -50  2 45   16 13 55    32   276   -45  -48 59 58  -51  6 33   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    164  0  0   -49 45 35   16 13 53    31   275   -45  -48 42 44  -50 49 29   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    165  0  0   -49 28 10   16 13 50    30   274   -44  -48 25 14  -50 32  9   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    166  0  0   -49 10 30   16 13 48    30   273   -44  -48  7 28  -50 14 35   .. .. ..   .. .. ..

    167  0  0   -48 52 35   16 13 46    29   272   -43  -47 49 29  -49 56 45   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    168  0  0   -48 34 26   16 13 44    29   271   -43  -47 31 14  -49 38 40   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    169  0  0   -48 16  1   16 13 41    28   270   -42  -47 12 45  -49 20 20   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    170  0  0   -47 57 22   16 13 39    27   269   -42  -46 54  2  -49  1 46   .. .. ..   .. .. ..
    171  0  0   -47 38 30   16 13 37    27   269   -41  -46 35  5  -48 42 57   .. .. ..   .. .. ..

    172  0  0   -47 19 23   16 13 35    26   268   -40  -46 15 54  -48 23 55   .. .. ..   .. .. ..

Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations] [Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details] [Timing Details] [Reporting Details] [Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]

[Site Map] [What's an Occultation?]
[Total Occultations] [Grazing Occultations] [Planetary Occultations] [Jovian Satellite Eclipses]
[Timing Occultations] [Reporting Observations] [Coming Events] [Software]
[About Us] [Publications] [Membership] [Links]

[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]