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Updated: 2007 JUN 02, 05:22 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Jun 06 UT, the 64 km diameter asteroid (1315) Bronislawa will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across Australia, from Sydney across norther New SouthWales and central Queensland to Arnehem Land in the Northern Territory.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.8 mag to 14.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
153 53 33 -39 12 45 14 8 15 41 68 -73 153 21 41 -39 21 20 154 25 1 -39 4 7 152 23 18 -39 36 38 155 20 43 -38 48 24
153 26 13 -38 16 54 14 8 42 42 69 -73 152 54 46 -38 25 23 153 57 18 -38 8 21 151 57 7 -38 40 30 154 52 18 -37 52 50
152 58 7 -37 21 21 14 9 8 42 70 -74 152 27 1 -37 29 45 153 28 50 -37 12 55 151 30 5 -37 44 41 154 23 12 -36 57 34
152 29 14 -36 26 7 14 9 35 42 71 -75 151 58 29 -36 34 25 152 59 37 -36 17 46 151 2 11 -36 49 11 153 53 24 -36 2 36
151 59 35 -35 31 10 14 10 1 42 72 -76 151 29 9 -35 39 21 152 29 40 -35 22 54 150 33 26 -35 53 57 153 22 55 -35 7 54
151 29 11 -34 36 27 14 10 28 42 74 -77 150 59 2 -34 44 33 151 58 59 -34 28 18 150 3 50 -34 58 59 152 51 45 -34 13 28
150 58 1 -33 41 59 14 10 54 41 75 -78 150 28 8 -33 49 59 151 27 34 -33 33 54 149 33 25 -34 4 15 152 19 53 -33 19 14
150 26 6 -32 47 42 14 11 21 41 76 -79 149 56 26 -32 55 38 150 55 24 -32 39 44 149 2 10 -33 9 43 151 47 20 -32 25 14
149 53 24 -31 53 37 14 11 47 41 77 -80 149 23 57 -32 1 27 150 22 30 -31 45 44 148 30 3 -32 15 23 151 14 4 -31 31 24
149 19 55 -30 59 42 14 12 14 41 78 -81 148 50 39 -31 7 27 149 48 50 -30 51 54 147 57 6 -31 21 13 150 40 4 -30 37 43
148 45 38 -30 5 56 14 12 40 41 79 -82 148 16 32 -30 13 35 149 14 24 -29 58 13 147 23 17 -30 27 11 150 5 21 -29 44 11
148 10 32 -29 12 16 14 13 7 41 80 -83 147 41 35 -29 19 50 148 39 9 -29 4 39 146 48 35 -29 33 17 149 29 52 -28 50 47
147 34 36 -28 18 43 14 13 33 40 81 -84 147 5 45 -28 26 12 148 3 6 -28 11 11 146 12 58 -28 39 29 148 53 37 -27 57 28
146 57 48 -27 25 15 14 14 0 40 82 -85 146 29 3 -27 32 38 147 26 13 -27 17 48 145 36 26 -27 45 45 148 16 33 -27 4 14
146 20 6 -26 31 50 14 14 26 40 83 -86 145 51 26 -26 39 7 146 48 27 -26 24 28 144 58 56 -26 52 5 147 38 40 -26 11 4
145 41 29 -25 38 27 14 14 53 39 84 -87 145 12 51 -25 45 39 146 9 47 -25 31 11 144 20 26 -25 58 27 146 59 54 -25 17 56
145 1 54 -24 45 5 14 15 19 39 85 -87 144 33 17 -24 52 11 145 30 10 -24 37 54 143 40 54 -25 4 49 146 20 15 -24 24 49
144 21 18 -23 51 42 14 15 46 38 86 -87 143 52 41 -23 58 43 144 49 35 -23 44 37 143 0 17 -24 11 10 145 39 39 -23 31 41
143 39 39 -22 58 17 14 16 12 38 87 -87 143 11 0 -23 5 13 144 7 57 -22 51 18 142 18 32 -23 17 29 144 58 3 -22 38 32
142 56 52 -22 4 49 14 16 39 37 88 -87 142 28 10 -22 11 39 143 25 13 -21 57 55 141 35 35 -22 23 45 144 15 24 -21 45 20
142 12 55 -21 11 16 14 17 5 37 89 -86 141 44 8 -21 17 59 142 41 21 -21 4 28 140 51 22 -21 29 54 143 31 40 -20 52 3
141 27 43 -20 17 36 14 17 32 36 90 -85 140 58 49 -20 24 13 141 56 15 -20 10 54 140 5 49 -20 35 57 142 46 45 -19 58 39
140 41 11 -19 23 48 14 17 58 36 91 -84 140 12 7 -19 30 19 141 9 52 -19 17 12 139 18 50 -19 41 50 142 0 35 -19 5 8
139 53 13 -18 29 49 14 18 25 35 91 -83 139 23 58 -18 36 13 140 22 5 -18 23 20 138 30 18 -18 47 32 141 13 6 -18 11 28
139 3 44 -17 35 38 14 18 51 34 92 -82 138 34 15 -17 41 55 139 32 48 -17 29 16 137 40 8 -17 53 1 140 24 11 -17 17 36
138 12 35 -16 41 13 14 19 18 34 93 -81 137 42 50 -16 47 23 138 41 56 -16 34 58 136 48 11 -16 58 14 139 33 45 -16 23 31
137 19 40 -15 46 31 14 19 44 33 94 -80 136 49 35 -15 52 33 137 49 19 -15 40 24 135 54 17 -16 3 8 138 41 38 -15 29 10
136 24 47 -14 51 29 14 20 11 32 95 -79 135 54 19 -14 57 22 136 54 48 -14 45 31 134 58 16 -15 7 42 137 47 44 -14 34 30
135 27 47 -13 56 5 14 20 37 31 95 -78 134 56 52 -14 1 49 135 58 13 -13 50 15 133 59 55 -14 11 50 136 51 52 -13 39 30
134 28 25 -13 0 15 14 21 4 30 96 -76 133 56 58 -13 5 48 134 59 22 -12 54 35 132 58 59 -13 15 30 135 53 51 -12 44 7
133 26 27 -12 3 55 14 21 30 29 97 -75 132 54 22 -12 9 17 133 57 59 -11 58 25 131 55 8 -12 18 37 134 53 26 -11 48 15
132 21 32 -11 7 0 14 21 57 28 97 -74 131 48 43 -11 12 9 132 53 46 -11 1 43 130 48 1 -11 21 5 133 50 23 -10 51 53
131 13 19 -10 9 25 14 22 23 27 98 -72 130 39 37 -10 14 20 131 46 23 -10 4 21 129 37 10 -10 22 48 132 44 20 - 9 54 54
130 1 18 - 9 11 3 14 22 50 26 98 -71 129 26 33 - 9 15 42 130 35 21 - 9 6 15 128 21 59 - 9 23 38 131 34 56 - 8 57 13
128 44 54 - 8 11 47 14 23 16 24 99 -69 128 8 51 - 8 16 6 129 20 7 - 8 7 16 127 1 42 - 8 23 25 130 21 38 - 7 58 43
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