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Updated: 2007 MAR 24, 22:29 UT
Event Rank : 30
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Apr 02 UT, the 12 km diameter asteroid (782) Montefiore will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path beginning near Derby in northern Western Australia, running across central Australia and north-western New South Wales, leaving just north of Sydney. The path then briefly grazes the southern tip of New Zealand south island, near Stewart Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.3 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.5 seconds. Note the full moon nearby.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
167 15 4 -47 0 0 10 17 16 13 336 -36 167 6 30 167 23 37 166 27 43 168 2 12
166 7 29 -46 0 0 10 17 10 15 337 -36 165 59 2 166 15 56 165 20 41 166 54 3
164 59 59 -45 0 0 10 17 4 16 338 -36 164 51 37 165 8 20 164 13 41 165 46 2
163 52 27 -44 0 0 10 16 56 17 339 -36 163 44 10 164 0 44 163 6 36 164 38 3
162 44 49 -43 0 0 10 16 49 18 340 -36 162 36 36 162 53 1 161 59 21 163 30 0
161 36 58 -42 0 0 10 16 40 19 341 -35 161 28 49 161 45 7 160 51 51 162 21 49
160 28 50 -41 0 0 10 16 31 21 342 -35 160 20 44 160 36 55 159 44 0 161 13 22
159 20 18 -40 0 0 10 16 22 22 343 -35 159 12 15 159 28 21 158 35 43 160 4 36
158 11 18 -39 0 0 10 16 11 23 344 -34 158 3 16 158 19 19 157 26 53 158 55 24
157 1 43 -38 0 0 10 16 0 24 345 -34 156 53 43 157 9 42 156 17 25 157 45 40
155 51 26 -37 0 0 10 15 49 26 346 -33 155 43 27 155 59 25 155 7 13 156 35 19
154 40 22 -36 0 0 10 15 37 27 347 -33 154 32 23 154 48 20 153 56 9 155 24 13
153 28 24 -35 0 0 10 15 24 28 348 -32 153 20 24 153 36 22 152 44 8 154 12 17
152 15 24 -34 0 0 10 15 10 29 349 -32 152 7 23 152 23 23 151 31 1 152 59 22
151 1 14 -33 0 0 10 14 55 30 350 -31 150 53 12 151 9 15 150 16 41 151 45 21
149 45 46 -32 0 0 10 14 40 31 352 -30 149 37 41 149 53 50 149 0 58 150 30 7
148 28 50 -31 0 0 10 14 24 33 353 -29 148 20 41 148 36 57 147 43 42 149 13 29
147 10 15 -30 0 0 10 14 7 34 354 -28 147 2 3 147 18 27 146 24 43 147 55 17
145 49 51 -29 0 0 10 13 50 35 356 -27 145 41 33 145 58 8 145 3 48 146 35 21
144 27 23 -28 0 0 10 13 31 36 358 -26 144 18 58 144 35 46 143 40 43 145 13 27
143 2 36 -27 0 0 10 13 12 37 359 -25 142 54 4 143 11 7 142 15 11 143 49 22
141 35 13 -26 0 0 10 12 51 38 1 -24 141 26 32 141 43 54 140 46 56 142 22 48
140 4 54 -25 0 0 10 12 30 39 3 -22 139 56 1 140 13 45 139 15 33 140 53 26
138 31 13 -24 0 0 10 12 7 40 5 -21 138 22 7 138 40 17 137 40 38 139 20 55
136 53 42 -23 0 0 10 11 43 41 7 -19 136 44 20 137 3 1 136 1 38 137 44 46
135 11 44 -22 0 0 10 11 18 41 9 -18 135 2 4 135 21 22 134 17 53 136 4 27
133 24 36 -21 0 0 10 10 51 42 11 -16 133 14 33 133 34 36 132 28 35 134 19 17
131 31 19 -20 0 0 10 10 23 43 14 -14 131 20 49 131 41 46 130 32 39 132 28 24
129 30 38 -19 0 0 10 9 52 43 17 -12 129 19 33 129 41 39 128 28 39 130 30 43
128 0 0 -18 17 37 10 9 30 43 19 -10 -18 22 52 -18 12 22 -18 46 45 -17 48 46
127 0 0 -17 50 49 10 9 15 43 20 -9 -17 56 3 -17 45 37 -18 19 46 -17 22 10
126 0 0 -17 25 2 10 9 0 43 22 -8 -17 30 13 -17 19 51 -17 53 47 -16 56 34
125 0 0 -17 0 15 10 8 45 43 23 -7 -17 5 25 -16 55 7 -17 28 50 -16 31 57
124 0 0 -16 36 29 10 8 30 43 24 -6 -16 41 37 -16 31 22 -17 4 53 -16 8 21
123 0 0 -16 13 43 10 8 15 43 26 -5 -16 18 49 -16 8 38 -16 41 57 -15 45 45
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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