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Updated: 2007 FEB 05, 23:39 UT
Event Rank : 9
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Mar 03 UT, the 24 km diameter asteroid (3345) Tarkovskij will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a narrow, uncertain path grazing the southern coast of Western Australia, then across South Australia and the Northern Territory to the Gulf of Carpentaria and across Papua / New Guinea. Albuny, Esperence and Alice Springs are close to the path, Perth is just on the 1-sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.2 mag to 15.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
140 25 14 1 12 27 13 54 13 20 130 -75 140 40 16 1 3 16 140 10 1 1 21 49 144 11 11 - 1 1 10 135 41 55 4 13 24
140 37 5 0 7 20 13 54 22 21 130 -75 140 51 38 - 0 1 28 140 22 21 0 16 16 144 17 14 - 2 1 23 136 6 54 2 57 36
140 46 23 - 0 55 41 13 54 31 21 129 -74 141 0 32 - 1 4 8 140 32 5 - 0 47 6 144 21 34 - 3 0 8 136 26 51 1 45 53
140 53 26 - 1 56 49 13 54 40 22 129 -74 141 7 14 - 2 4 59 140 39 29 - 1 48 32 144 24 19 - 3 57 33 136 42 42 0 37 31
140 58 27 - 2 56 16 13 54 50 23 129 -74 141 11 57 - 3 4 11 140 44 49 - 2 48 15 144 25 35 - 4 53 45 136 55 7 - 0 28 3
141 1 37 - 3 54 13 13 54 59 24 129 -73 141 14 51 - 4 1 54 140 48 15 - 3 46 26 144 25 28 - 5 48 50 137 4 33 - 1 31 13
141 3 4 - 4 50 47 13 55 8 24 128 -72 141 16 5 - 4 58 16 140 49 57 - 4 43 12 144 24 3 - 6 42 51 137 11 23 - 2 32 17
141 2 57 - 5 46 5 13 55 17 25 128 -72 141 15 46 - 5 53 24 140 50 1 - 5 38 41 144 21 25 - 7 35 54 137 15 54 - 3 31 30
141 1 20 - 6 40 14 13 55 27 25 128 -71 141 13 59 - 6 47 24 140 48 35 - 6 32 59 144 17 35 - 8 28 3 137 18 19 - 4 29 3
140 58 19 - 7 33 17 13 55 36 26 127 -71 141 10 49 - 7 40 19 140 45 44 - 7 26 11 144 12 38 - 9 19 19 137 18 49 - 5 25 7
140 53 59 - 8 25 20 13 55 45 26 127 -70 141 6 21 - 8 32 15 140 41 32 - 8 18 21 144 6 35 -10 9 48 137 17 32 - 6 19 47
140 48 22 - 9 16 27 13 55 54 27 127 -69 141 0 37 - 9 23 15 140 36 3 - 9 9 34 143 59 29 -10 59 30 137 14 36 - 7 13 13
140 41 33 -10 6 40 13 56 4 27 126 -69 140 53 41 -10 13 23 140 29 19 - 9 59 53 143 51 21 -11 48 28 137 10 6 - 8 5 28
140 33 32 -10 56 3 13 56 13 28 126 -68 140 45 35 -11 2 40 140 21 25 -10 49 21 143 42 13 -12 36 45 137 4 8 - 8 56 39
140 24 23 -11 44 37 13 56 22 28 126 -67 140 36 22 -11 51 11 140 12 20 -11 38 0 143 32 7 -13 24 22 136 56 45 - 9 46 48
140 14 7 -12 32 27 13 56 31 28 125 -66 140 26 2 -12 38 56 140 2 8 -12 25 53 143 21 2 -14 11 21 136 48 2 -10 36 0
140 2 46 -13 19 32 13 56 41 29 125 -66 140 14 37 -13 25 59 139 50 50 -13 13 2 143 8 59 -14 57 44 136 37 59 -11 24 17
139 50 20 -14 5 56 13 56 50 29 124 -65 140 2 8 -14 12 20 139 38 28 -13 59 29 142 56 0 -15 43 30 136 26 41 -12 11 43
139 36 51 -14 51 40 13 56 59 29 124 -64 139 48 37 -14 58 1 139 25 1 -14 45 15 142 42 4 -16 28 43 136 14 8 -12 58 19
139 22 19 -15 36 44 13 57 8 30 124 -63 139 34 3 -15 43 3 139 10 30 -15 30 22 142 27 12 -17 13 23 136 0 23 -13 44 8
139 6 44 -16 21 11 13 57 18 30 123 -63 139 18 27 -16 27 29 138 54 57 -16 14 50 142 11 24 -17 57 30 135 45 26 -14 29 12
138 50 7 -17 5 1 13 57 27 30 123 -62 139 1 49 -17 11 18 138 38 21 -16 58 41 141 54 40 -18 41 6 135 29 18 -15 13 31
138 32 28 -17 48 16 13 57 36 30 123 -61 138 44 9 -17 54 31 138 20 43 -17 41 57 141 36 59 -19 24 11 135 11 59 -15 57 7
138 13 47 -18 30 55 13 57 45 30 122 -61 138 25 28 -18 37 10 138 2 2 -18 24 37 141 18 21 -20 6 46 134 53 31 -16 40 1
137 54 3 -19 13 0 13 57 55 30 122 -60 138 5 44 -19 19 15 137 42 18 -19 6 42 140 58 45 -20 48 51 134 33 53 -17 22 15
137 33 16 -19 54 31 13 58 4 31 122 -59 137 44 58 -20 0 46 137 21 31 -19 48 13 140 38 12 -21 30 26 134 13 5 -18 3 48
137 11 26 -20 35 28 13 58 13 31 121 -58 137 23 9 -20 41 44 136 59 40 -20 29 10 140 16 40 -22 11 33 133 51 7 -18 44 42
136 48 31 -21 15 53 13 58 22 31 121 -58 137 0 15 -21 22 9 136 36 44 -21 9 33 139 54 8 -22 52 12 133 27 58 -19 24 56
136 24 32 -21 55 44 13 58 32 31 121 -57 136 36 17 -22 2 1 136 12 43 -21 49 24 139 30 36 -23 32 21 133 3 38 -20 4 31
135 59 26 -22 35 3 13 58 41 31 120 -56 136 11 13 -22 41 21 135 47 36 -22 28 41 139 6 2 -24 12 2 132 38 6 -20 43 28
135 33 13 -23 13 48 13 58 50 31 120 -55 135 45 3 -23 20 8 135 21 21 -23 7 24 138 40 25 -24 51 15 132 11 20 -21 21 46
135 5 52 -23 52 0 13 58 59 31 120 -55 135 17 44 -23 58 23 134 53 57 -23 45 35 138 13 45 -25 29 58 131 43 20 -21 59 24
134 37 21 -24 29 39 13 59 9 31 120 -54 134 49 15 -24 36 4 134 25 23 -24 23 11 137 45 59 -26 8 13 131 14 4 -22 36 24
134 7 39 -25 6 44 13 59 18 31 119 -53 134 19 36 -25 13 12 133 55 38 -25 0 14 137 17 5 -26 45 59 130 43 31 -23 12 43
133 36 43 -25 43 16 13 59 27 31 119 -52 133 48 44 -25 49 46 133 24 39 -25 36 42 136 47 4 -27 23 16 130 11 39 -23 48 22
133 4 34 -26 19 12 13 59 36 30 119 -52 133 16 38 -26 25 45 132 52 26 -26 12 35 136 15 51 -28 0 2 129 38 26 -24 23 20
132 31 7 -26 54 33 13 59 46 30 119 -51 132 43 15 -27 1 10 132 18 55 -26 47 52 135 43 27 -28 36 18 129 3 50 -24 57 37
131 56 21 -27 29 17 13 59 55 30 118 -50 132 8 34 -27 35 58 131 44 5 -27 22 33 135 9 48 -29 12 2 128 27 49 -25 31 9
131 20 15 -28 3 25 14 0 4 30 118 -49 131 32 32 -28 10 10 131 7 54 -27 56 36 134 34 52 -29 47 15 127 50 20 -26 3 58
130 42 45 -28 36 54 14 0 13 30 118 -49 130 55 7 -28 43 44 130 30 19 -28 30 0 133 58 38 -30 21 55 127 11 21 -26 36 1
130 3 49 -29 9 43 14 0 23 30 118 -48 130 16 16 -29 16 38 129 51 18 -29 2 44 133 21 2 -30 56 1 126 30 49 -27 7 16
129 23 24 -29 41 51 14 0 32 29 118 -47 129 35 57 -29 48 52 129 10 48 -29 34 47 132 42 3 -31 29 32 125 48 40 -27 37 41
128 41 28 -30 13 17 14 0 41 29 118 -46 128 54 7 -30 20 24 128 28 45 -30 6 7 132 1 37 -32 2 26 125 4 52 -28 7 15
127 57 56 -30 43 58 14 0 50 29 118 -46 128 10 42 -30 51 11 127 45 7 -30 36 42 131 19 41 -32 34 43 124 19 19 -28 35 55
127 12 46 -31 13 53 14 1 0 29 118 -45 127 25 39 -31 21 13 126 59 50 -31 6 29 130 36 13 -33 6 21 123 31 59 -29 3 38
126 25 55 -31 42 59 14 1 9 28 118 -44 126 38 54 -31 50 26 126 12 51 -31 35 27 129 51 8 -33 37 17 122 42 47 -29 30 21
125 37 17 -32 11 13 14 1 18 28 118 -43 125 50 24 -32 18 49 125 24 6 -32 3 34 129 4 24 -34 7 30 121 51 38 -29 56 0
124 46 49 -32 38 34 14 1 27 27 118 -43 125 0 5 -32 46 18 124 33 29 -32 30 45 128 15 57 -34 36 58 120 58 26 -30 20 31
123 54 27 -33 4 57 14 1 37 27 118 -42 124 7 51 -33 12 51 123 40 58 -32 56 59 127 25 43 -35 5 39 120 3 5 -30 43 50
123 0 5 -33 30 19 14 1 46 27 118 -41 123 13 39 -33 38 23 122 46 26 -33 22 10 126 33 38 -35 33 29 119 5 29 -31 5 51
122 3 38 -33 54 36 14 1 55 26 118 -40 122 17 23 -34 2 51 121 49 49 -33 46 16 125 39 37 -36 0 25 118 5 30 -31 26 28
121 5 1 -34 17 44 14 2 4 26 118 -39 121 18 56 -34 26 11 120 51 0 -34 9 12 124 43 35 -36 26 25 117 2 59 -31 45 34
120 4 6 -34 39 37 14 2 14 25 119 -39 120 18 14 -34 48 17 119 49 53 -34 30 52 123 45 28 -36 51 24 115 57 48 -32 3 0
119 0 48 -35 0 10 14 2 23 25 119 -38 119 15 9 -35 9 4 118 46 21 -34 51 10 122 45 9 -37 15 19 114 49 43 -32 18 37
117 54 57 -35 19 15 14 2 32 24 119 -37 118 9 33 -35 28 25 117 40 16 -35 9 59 121 42 34 -37 38 4 113 38 32 -32 32 12
116 46 26 -35 36 46 14 2 41 23 119 -36 117 1 18 -35 46 14 116 31 29 -35 27 12 120 37 36 -37 59 35 112 23 58 -32 43 32
115 35 5 -35 52 33 14 2 51 23 120 -35 115 50 13 -36 2 20 115 19 48 -35 42 39 119 30 7 -38 19 45 111 5 42 -32 52 19
114 20 41 -36 6 26 14 3 0 22 120 -34 114 36 9 -36 16 34 114 5 4 -35 56 10 118 20 0 -38 38 29 109 43 18 -32 58 11
113 3 1 -36 18 12 14 3 9 21 121 -33 113 18 52 -36 28 45 112 47 1 -36 7 32 117 7 7 -38 55 37 108 16 14 -33 0 39
111 41 50 -36 27 37 14 3 18 20 121 -33 111 58 7 -36 38 37 111 25 23 -36 16 28 115 51 19 -39 11 2 106 43 46 -32 59 4
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