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Updated: 2007 JAN 13, 19:31 UT
Event Rank : 12
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Feb 17 UT, the 11 km diameter asteroid (2486) Metsahovi will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a narrow path across eastern Western Australia, beginning just east of Kalumburu, and ending near Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.2 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
136 59 50 -44 0 0 14 56 10 1 323 -34 136 53 19 137 6 21 ... .. .. 138 19 51
136 1 9 -43 0 0 14 56 9 2 324 -35 135 54 53 136 7 27 ... .. .. 137 18 18
135 6 50 -42 0 0 14 56 8 3 324 -36 135 0 45 135 12 55 ... .. .. 136 21 24
134 16 25 -41 0 0 14 56 5 4 325 -37 134 10 32 134 22 20 ... .. .. 135 28 40
133 29 36 -40 0 0 14 56 2 6 326 -38 133 23 53 133 35 20 132 20 53 134 39 45
132 46 4 -39 0 0 14 55 59 7 326 -39 132 40 30 132 51 39 131 39 9 133 54 18
132 5 33 -38 0 0 14 55 55 8 326 -40 132 0 7 132 10 59 131 0 17 133 12 1
131 27 49 -37 0 0 14 55 50 9 327 -41 131 22 31 131 33 8 130 24 5 132 32 41
130 52 41 -36 0 0 14 55 44 10 327 -41 130 47 30 130 57 52 129 50 21 131 56 5
130 19 57 -35 0 0 14 55 38 11 327 -42 130 14 53 130 25 2 129 18 55 131 21 59
129 49 28 -34 0 0 14 55 32 12 328 -43 129 44 30 129 54 27 128 49 38 130 50 15
129 21 6 -33 0 0 14 55 25 13 328 -44 129 16 13 129 25 59 128 22 23 130 20 43
128 54 43 -32 0 0 14 55 17 14 328 -45 128 49 56 128 59 31 127 57 2 129 53 15
128 30 12 -31 0 0 14 55 9 15 328 -46 128 25 30 128 34 55 127 33 29 129 27 44
128 7 27 -30 0 0 14 55 1 16 328 -47 128 2 49 128 12 5 127 11 38 129 4 3
127 46 23 -29 0 0 14 54 51 17 329 -48 127 41 49 127 50 57 126 51 23 128 42 6
127 26 53 -28 0 0 14 54 42 18 329 -48 127 22 23 127 31 24 126 32 41 128 21 48
127 8 55 -27 0 0 14 54 32 19 329 -49 127 4 29 127 13 21 126 15 26 128 3 4
126 52 23 -26 0 0 14 54 21 20 329 -50 126 48 0 126 56 46 125 59 35 127 45 50
126 37 14 -25 0 0 14 54 10 21 329 -51 126 32 54 126 41 34 125 45 5 127 30 2
126 23 24 -24 0 0 14 53 59 22 329 -52 126 19 8 126 27 41 125 31 50 127 15 35
126 10 51 -23 0 0 14 53 47 23 329 -53 126 6 37 126 15 5 125 19 50 127 2 27
125 59 31 -22 0 0 14 53 35 24 329 -53 125 55 19 126 3 42 125 9 1 126 50 35
125 49 21 -21 0 0 14 53 22 25 329 -54 125 45 12 125 53 30 124 59 20 126 39 56
125 40 19 -20 0 0 14 53 9 26 329 -55 125 36 13 125 44 26 124 50 45 126 30 26
125 32 24 -19 0 0 14 52 55 27 328 -56 125 28 19 125 36 29 124 43 15 126 22 5
125 25 32 -18 0 0 14 52 41 28 328 -57 125 21 30 125 29 35 124 36 46 126 14 50
125 19 43 -17 0 0 14 52 27 29 328 -57 125 15 42 125 23 44 124 31 18 126 8 39
125 14 54 -16 0 0 14 52 12 30 328 -58 125 10 55 125 18 53 124 26 49 126 3 29
125 11 4 -15 0 0 14 51 57 31 328 -59 125 7 6 125 15 2 124 23 17 125 59 21
125 8 11 -14 0 0 14 51 41 32 327 -60 125 4 15 125 12 8 124 20 40 125 56 11
125 6 15 -13 0 0 14 51 25 33 327 -61 125 2 20 125 10 10 124 18 59 125 54 0
125 5 14 -12 0 0 14 51 9 34 327 -61 125 1 20 125 9 8 124 18 12 125 52 45
125 5 7 -11 0 0 14 50 53 34 327 -62 125 1 14 125 9 0 124 18 17 125 52 26
125 5 53 -10 0 0 14 50 36 35 326 -63 125 2 1 125 9 46 124 19 14 125 53 1
125 7 32 - 9 0 0 14 50 18 36 326 -64 125 3 41 125 11 24 124 21 2 125 54 30
125 10 3 - 8 0 0 14 50 0 37 326 -65 125 6 12 125 13 54 124 23 41 125 56 53
125 13 25 - 7 0 0 14 49 42 38 325 -65 125 9 35 125 17 15 124 27 9 126 0 8
125 17 38 - 6 0 0 14 49 24 39 325 -66 125 13 48 125 21 27 124 31 28 126 4 15
125 22 41 - 5 0 0 14 49 5 39 324 -67 125 18 51 125 26 30 124 36 35 126 9 14
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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