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Updated: 2007 JAN 06, 23:43 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Feb 06 UT, the 132 km diameter asteroid (146) Lucina will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path beginning directly across Adelaide, and then across central NSW passing close to Bourke and leaving leaving close to Brisbane,
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.3 mag to 14.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 32 38 -41 43 59 10 42 11 31 297 -2 128 17 16 -41 7 43 130 52 9 -42 20 25 127 19 39 -40 38 49 131 59 3 -42 49 40
130 18 45 -41 8 48 10 42 13 31 296 -2 129 3 12 -40 32 52 131 38 27 -41 44 52 128 5 28 -40 4 15 132 45 32 -42 13 49
131 5 28 -40 33 49 10 42 16 31 295 -3 129 49 41 -39 58 14 132 25 26 -41 9 32 128 51 47 -39 29 52 133 32 44 -41 38 12
131 52 51 -39 59 3 10 42 19 30 294 -4 130 36 46 -39 23 48 133 13 8 -40 34 26 129 38 38 -38 55 41 134 20 45 -41 2 48
132 40 56 -39 24 29 10 42 21 30 293 -5 131 24 29 -38 49 33 134 1 38 -39 59 31 130 26 6 -38 21 41 135 9 37 -40 27 37
133 29 48 -38 50 5 10 42 24 30 292 -5 132 12 54 -38 15 28 134 51 0 -39 24 47 131 14 12 -37 47 51 135 59 26 -39 52 36
134 19 29 -38 15 52 10 42 27 29 291 -6 133 2 5 -37 41 33 135 41 17 -38 50 14 132 3 0 -37 14 10 136 50 16 -39 17 47
135 10 5 -37 41 48 10 42 30 29 290 -7 133 52 5 -37 7 48 136 32 35 -38 15 51 132 52 34 -36 40 39 137 42 12 -38 43 8
136 1 41 -37 7 53 10 42 32 28 290 -8 134 42 59 -36 34 11 137 24 58 -37 41 37 133 42 59 -36 7 16 138 35 20 -38 8 37
136 54 21 -36 34 6 10 42 35 28 289 -9 135 34 51 -36 0 42 138 18 34 -37 7 31 134 34 17 -35 34 1 139 29 47 -37 34 15
137 48 12 -36 0 26 10 42 38 27 288 -10 136 27 48 -35 27 20 139 13 29 -36 33 33 135 26 35 -35 0 53 140 25 41 -37 0 1
138 43 21 -35 26 54 10 42 40 27 287 -11 137 21 54 -34 54 6 140 9 51 -35 59 41 136 19 57 -34 27 52 141 23 11 -36 25 53
139 39 55 -34 53 27 10 42 43 26 286 -12 138 17 17 -34 20 57 141 7 48 -35 25 55 137 14 31 -33 54 57 142 22 27 -35 51 52
140 38 3 -34 20 6 10 42 46 25 285 -13 139 14 4 -33 47 53 142 7 32 -34 52 15 138 10 21 -33 22 7 143 23 42 -35 17 54
141 37 55 -33 46 49 10 42 48 25 284 -14 140 12 24 -33 14 54 143 9 14 -34 18 38 139 7 37 -32 49 21 144 27 9 -34 44 1
142 39 43 -33 13 35 10 42 51 24 283 -15 141 12 27 -32 41 59 144 13 10 -33 45 4 140 6 28 -32 16 40 145 33 7 -34 10 10
143 43 42 -32 40 23 10 42 54 23 282 -16 142 14 24 -32 9 7 145 19 36 -33 11 32 141 7 3 -31 44 2 146 41 56 -33 36 19
144 50 8 -32 7 13 10 42 56 23 281 -17 143 18 31 -31 36 16 146 28 54 -32 38 0 142 9 34 -31 11 25 147 54 3 -33 2 28
145 59 23 -31 34 3 10 42 59 22 280 -18 144 25 2 -31 3 26 147 41 30 -32 4 27 143 14 17 -30 38 50 149 10 1 -32 28 35
147 11 51 -31 0 51 10 43 2 21 279 -19 145 34 19 -30 30 35 148 57 59 -31 30 51 144 21 27 -30 6 15 150 30 34 -31 54 35
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