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Updated: 2007 JAN 03, 17:41 UT
Event Rank : 8
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Feb 02 UT, the 22 km diameter asteroid (20635) 1999 TV96 will occult a 4.4 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a narrow, but high uncertainty path across Western Australia, beginning near Isreelite Bay and leaving near Shark Bay.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 12.4 mag to 16.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.5 seconds.
This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
128 1 57 -36 19 5 11 35 57 35 65 -11 127 51 2 -36 24 28 128 12 48 -36 13 42 124 48 49 -37 49 14 130 54 8 -34 49 39
127 15 23 -35 40 33 11 36 4 35 66 -11 127 4 27 -35 45 53 127 26 15 -35 35 14 124 1 55 -37 9 53 130 7 50 -34 11 52
126 28 12 -35 2 15 11 36 10 34 67 -11 126 17 14 -35 7 32 126 39 6 -34 56 58 123 14 15 -36 30 46 129 21 1 -33 34 17
125 40 21 -34 24 8 11 36 16 34 68 -11 125 29 21 -34 29 22 125 51 17 -34 18 53 122 25 44 -35 51 52 128 33 40 -32 56 53
124 51 48 -33 46 12 11 36 23 33 69 -11 124 40 45 -33 51 24 125 2 46 -33 41 0 121 36 19 -35 13 10 127 45 44 -32 19 39
124 2 28 -33 8 27 11 36 29 33 70 -10 123 51 22 -33 13 36 124 13 29 -33 3 18 120 45 56 -34 34 39 126 57 10 -31 42 34
123 12 18 -32 30 52 11 36 36 33 71 -10 123 1 8 -32 35 58 123 23 23 -32 25 45 119 54 30 -33 56 20 126 7 55 -31 5 39
122 21 14 -31 53 26 11 36 42 32 72 -10 122 10 0 -31 58 30 122 32 23 -31 48 21 119 1 56 -33 18 9 125 17 56 -30 28 52
121 29 12 -31 16 8 11 36 48 32 72 -9 121 17 52 -31 21 10 121 40 27 -31 11 6 118 8 9 -32 40 8 124 27 9 -29 52 13
120 36 7 -30 38 58 11 36 55 31 73 -9 120 24 41 -30 43 57 120 47 27 -30 33 58 117 13 2 -32 2 15 123 35 30 -29 15 41
119 41 53 -30 1 55 11 37 1 31 74 -8 119 30 20 -30 6 52 119 53 20 -29 56 58 116 16 27 -31 24 29 122 42 55 -28 39 16
118 46 24 -29 24 58 11 37 8 30 75 -8 118 34 44 -29 29 53 118 58 0 -29 20 4 115 18 17 -30 46 50 121 49 19 -28 2 57
117 49 34 -28 48 7 11 37 14 29 76 -8 117 37 45 -28 53 0 118 1 19 -28 43 15 114 18 20 -30 9 15 120 54 38 -27 26 43
116 51 15 -28 11 21 11 37 20 29 77 -7 116 39 15 -28 16 11 117 3 10 -28 6 31 113 16 27 -29 31 46 119 58 44 -26 50 34
115 51 17 -27 34 39 11 37 27 28 78 -6 115 39 5 -27 39 26 116 3 24 -27 29 52 112 12 23 -28 54 19 119 1 32 -26 14 30
114 49 31 -26 58 0 11 37 33 27 79 -6 114 37 5 -27 2 45 115 1 51 -26 53 15 111 5 53 -28 16 54 118 2 54 -25 38 28
113 45 44 -26 21 23 11 37 40 27 80 -5 113 33 2 -26 26 5 113 58 19 -26 16 40 109 56 36 -27 39 30 117 2 41 -25 2 29
112 39 42 -25 44 46 11 37 46 26 80 -5 112 26 42 -25 49 26 112 52 35 -25 40 6 108 44 10 -27 2 5 116 0 44 -24 26 32
111 31 9 -25 8 10 11 37 52 25 81 -4 111 17 48 -25 12 47 111 44 22 -25 3 33 107 28 3 -26 24 36 114 56 52 -23 50 36
110 19 42 -24 31 31 11 37 59 24 82 -3 110 5 56 -24 36 6 110 33 19 -24 26 57 106 7 38 -25 47 2 113 50 51 -23 14 40
109 4 57 -23 54 50 11 38 5 23 83 -2 108 50 43 -23 59 21 109 19 2 -23 50 18 104 42 2 -25 9 19 112 42 25 -22 38 42
107 46 22 -23 18 2 11 38 12 22 84 -1 107 31 32 -23 22 30 108 1 1 -23 13 34 103 10 6 -24 31 24 111 31 16 -22 2 42
106 23 14 -22 41 7 11 38 18 21 85 0 106 7 42 -22 45 31 106 38 34 -22 36 43 101 30 7 -23 53 10 110 17 0 -21 26 38
104 54 39 -22 4 1 11 38 25 19 85 1 104 38 14 -22 8 21 105 10 49 -21 59 40 99 39 31 -23 14 29 108 59 7 -20 50 28
103 19 18 -21 26 39 11 38 31 18 86 2 103 1 47 -21 30 54 103 36 32 -21 22 23 97 33 54 -22 35 6 107 37 2 -20 14 10
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