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Updated: 2006 DEC 19, 22:22 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Jan 14 UT, the 39 km diameter asteroid (842) Kerstin will occult a 8.7 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a significant uncertainty path across South Australia, western Victoria and Tasmania, passing directly over Adelaide, Warrnambool and Hobart.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.5 mag to 17.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
126 12 59 -25 25 16 17 28 45 8 118 -37 127 9 28 -25 44 37 125 9 48 -25 2 3 130 17 6 -26 39 45 ... .. .. .. .. ..
129 44 19 -27 54 38 17 28 48 12 117 -33 130 25 50 -28 5 8 129 0 47 -27 42 56 132 56 25 -28 38 5 125 35 58 -26 38 15
132 19 9 -29 51 8 17 28 51 15 115 -30 132 54 42 -29 57 58 131 42 30 -29 43 38 135 7 36 -30 19 51 129 1 43 -29 5 17
134 27 23 -31 31 58 17 28 55 17 114 -28 134 59 36 -31 36 40 133 54 25 -31 26 49 137 1 55 -31 51 34 131 33 34 -31 0 56
136 19 25 -33 3 8 17 28 58 19 113 -26 136 49 30 -33 6 22 135 48 46 -32 59 33 138 44 43 -33 16 19 133 39 36 -32 41 21
138 0 20 -34 27 33 17 29 1 21 112 -24 138 28 56 -34 29 43 137 31 16 -34 25 7 140 19 7 -34 35 53 135 29 49 -34 12 19
139 33 4 -35 46 57 17 29 4 22 110 -22 140 0 36 -35 48 17 139 5 9 -35 45 24 141 47 5 -35 51 26 137 9 7 -35 36 41
140 59 31 -37 2 26 17 29 8 24 109 -20 141 26 15 -37 3 4 140 32 26 -37 1 36 143 9 56 -37 3 44 138 40 22 -36 56 7
142 20 58 -38 14 45 17 29 11 25 108 -19 142 47 6 -38 14 48 141 54 32 -38 14 31 144 28 39 -38 13 20 140 5 25 -38 11 41
143 38 22 -39 24 26 17 29 14 27 107 -17 144 4 2 -39 23 59 143 12 25 -39 24 44 145 43 58 -39 20 41 141 25 31 -39 24 9
144 52 25 -40 31 55 17 29 17 28 105 -16 145 17 44 -40 31 2 144 26 49 -40 32 40 146 56 27 -40 26 5 142 41 36 -40 34 2
146 3 40 -41 37 31 17 29 21 29 104 -14 146 28 44 -41 36 14 145 38 20 -41 38 39 148 6 32 -41 29 49 143 54 22 -41 41 45
147 12 33 -42 41 28 17 29 24 30 103 -13 147 37 26 -42 39 50 146 47 25 -42 42 58 149 14 36 -42 32 4 145 4 20 -42 47 37
148 19 26 -43 43 59 17 29 27 31 102 -11 148 44 12 -43 42 2 147 54 26 -43 45 49 150 20 58 -43 33 2 146 11 57 -43 51 53
149 24 38 -44 45 15 17 29 30 32 100 -10 149 49 20 -44 43 0 148 59 42 -44 47 24 151 25 52 -44 32 51 147 17 34 -44 54 44
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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