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Updated: 2006 SEP 09, 17:34 UT
Event Rank : 17
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Oct 11 UT, the 10 km diameter asteroid (1060) Magnolia will occult a 4.6 mag star, χ2 Orionis, in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across Australia, beginning near Karratha, running across north-western Western Australia, Northern Territory, southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, passing near Port Hedland, Alice Springs, Brisbane and Byron Bay. Then as morning twilight begins the path crosses the northern half of the south island of New Zealand from Westport to just north of Christchurch.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 12.5 mag to 17.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
173 56 32 -44 0 0 17 11 31 26 359 -6 173 48 32 174 4 32 172 44 45 175 7 18
172 46 20 -43 0 0 17 11 14 27 0 -7 172 38 20 172 54 19 171 34 42 173 56 54
171 35 1 -42 0 0 17 10 56 28 2 -8 171 27 2 171 43 0 170 23 25 172 45 29
170 22 28 -41 0 0 17 10 38 29 3 -9 170 14 28 170 30 27 169 10 47 171 32 58
169 8 31 -40 0 0 17 10 18 30 5 -10 169 0 30 169 16 31 167 56 37 170 19 10
167 53 1 -39 0 0 17 9 58 31 6 -12 167 44 58 168 1 3 166 40 45 169 3 57
166 35 47 -38 0 0 17 9 36 32 8 -13 166 27 40 166 43 52 165 23 0 167 47 8
165 16 35 -37 0 0 17 9 14 32 9 -14 165 8 25 165 24 45 164 3 8 166 28 31
163 55 13 -36 0 0 17 8 50 33 11 -16 163 46 58 164 3 28 162 40 54 165 7 54
162 31 24 -35 0 0 17 8 26 34 13 -17 162 23 2 162 39 46 161 16 0 163 45 1
161 4 49 -34 0 0 17 8 0 35 15 -19 160 56 18 161 13 19 159 48 5 162 19 36
159 35 6 -33 0 0 17 7 33 35 17 -21 159 26 24 159 43 46 158 16 44 160 51 18
158 1 47 -32 0 0 17 7 5 36 19 -22 157 52 53 158 10 39 156 41 27 159 19 44
156 24 21 -31 0 0 17 6 35 36 21 -24 156 15 11 156 33 28 155 1 35 157 44 23
154 42 6 -30 0 0 17 6 4 37 23 -26 154 32 37 154 51 31 153 16 23 156 4 42
152 54 10 -29 0 0 17 5 31 37 26 -28 152 44 19 153 3 59 151 24 47 154 19 56
150 59 28 -28 0 0 17 4 56 37 28 -30 150 49 8 151 9 45 149 25 28 152 29 9
148 56 27 -27 0 0 17 4 19 37 31 -32 148 45 30 149 7 20 147 16 31 150 31 6
147 0 0 -26 7 21 17 3 45 36 33 -34 -26 12 24 -26 2 19 -26 52 41 -25 22 53
146 0 0 -25 41 48 17 3 27 36 34 -35 -25 46 49 -25 36 48 -26 26 47 -24 57 40
145 0 0 -25 17 19 17 3 10 36 36 -36 -25 22 18 -25 12 22 -26 1 58 -24 33 31
144 0 0 -24 53 55 17 2 52 36 37 -37 -24 58 51 -24 48 59 -25 38 14 -24 10 25
143 0 0 -24 31 34 17 2 35 35 38 -38 -24 36 28 -24 26 41 -25 15 35 -23 48 21
142 0 0 -24 10 17 17 2 18 35 39 -39 -24 15 10 -24 5 26 -24 54 0 -23 27 21
141 0 0 -23 50 4 17 2 2 35 40 -40 -23 54 55 -23 45 14 -24 33 31 -23 7 24
140 0 0 -23 30 54 17 1 45 34 41 -41 -23 35 43 -23 26 6 -24 14 5 -22 48 29
139 0 0 -23 12 48 17 1 29 34 42 -42 -23 17 35 -23 8 1 -23 55 44 -22 30 36
138 0 0 -22 55 44 17 1 13 33 43 -43 -23 0 30 -22 50 59 -23 38 26 -22 13 46
137 0 0 -22 39 43 17 0 57 33 44 -44 -22 44 28 -22 35 0 -23 22 12 -21 57 58
136 0 0 -22 24 45 17 0 42 32 45 -45 -22 29 28 -22 20 3 -23 7 1 -21 43 11
135 0 0 -22 10 49 17 0 27 32 46 -46 -22 15 30 -22 6 8 -22 52 53 -21 29 26
134 0 0 -21 57 54 17 0 12 31 47 -47 -22 2 35 -21 53 15 -22 39 48 -21 16 42
133 0 0 -21 46 2 16 59 57 31 48 -48 -21 50 41 -21 41 23 -22 27 45 -21 4 59
132 0 0 -21 35 10 16 59 43 30 49 -49 -21 39 48 -21 30 32 -22 16 44 -20 54 16
131 0 0 -21 25 20 16 59 29 30 50 -50 -21 29 57 -21 20 43 -22 6 45 -20 44 34
130 0 0 -21 16 30 16 59 15 29 51 -50 -21 21 6 -21 11 54 -21 57 48 -20 35 52
129 0 0 -21 8 41 16 59 2 28 51 -51 -21 13 16 -21 4 5 -21 49 51 -20 28 9
128 0 0 -21 1 51 16 58 49 27 52 -52 -21 6 26 -20 57 17 -21 42 56 -20 21 26
127 0 0 -20 56 2 16 58 36 27 53 -53 -21 0 36 -20 51 28 -21 37 1 -20 15 42
126 0 0 -20 51 12 16 58 24 26 54 -54 -20 55 46 -20 46 39 -21 32 6 -20 10 57
125 0 0 -20 47 22 16 58 12 25 54 -54 -20 51 55 -20 42 49 -21 28 11 -20 7 11
124 0 0 -20 44 30 16 58 0 24 55 -55 -20 49 3 -20 39 58 -21 25 16 -20 4 23
123 0 0 -20 42 37 16 57 49 24 56 -56 -20 47 10 -20 38 5 -21 23 20 -20 2 33
122 0 0 -20 41 43 16 57 38 23 56 -56 -20 46 15 -20 37 11 -21 22 23 -20 1 41
121 0 0 -20 41 47 16 57 28 22 57 -57 -20 46 19 -20 37 15 -21 22 26 -20 1 46
120 0 0 -20 42 49 16 57 18 21 57 -57 -20 47 21 -20 38 17 -21 23 26 -20 2 49
119 0 0 -20 44 48 16 57 8 20 58 -58 -20 49 20 -20 40 17 -21 25 25 -20 4 49
118 0 0 -20 47 45 16 56 59 20 58 -58 -20 52 17 -20 43 13 -21 28 22 -20 7 45
117 0 0 -20 51 39 16 56 50 19 59 -59 -20 56 11 -20 47 7 -21 32 17 -20 11 38
116 0 0 -20 56 30 16 56 41 18 59 -59 -21 1 2 -20 51 58 -21 37 9 -20 16 28
115 0 0 -21 2 17 16 56 33 17 60 -59 -21 6 50 -20 57 45 -21 42 59 -20 22 13
114 0 0 -21 9 1 16 56 25 16 60 -60 -21 13 34 -21 4 29 -21 49 46 -20 28 54
113 0 0 -21 16 41 16 56 18 15 61 -60 -21 21 14 -21 12 8 -21 57 29 -20 36 31
112 0 0 -21 25 17 16 56 11 14 61 -60 -21 29 51 -21 20 44 -22 6 9 -20 45 3
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