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Updated: 2006 AUG 11, 03:45 UT
Event Rank : 55
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Sep 16 UT, the 48 km diameter asteroid (1242) Zambesia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a path through Sydney (south-west suburbs), across north-east New South Wales and eastern Queensland, passing close to Narrabri and Charters Towers and to the west of Cairns, berfore continuing to Papua New Guinea.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 13.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
160 15 48 -49 20 13 18 22 51 11 329 -10 159 47 3 -49 13 18 160 45 11 -49 27 34 158 43 3 -48 58 46 161 55 32 -49 46 14
156 24 14 -44 9 41 18 23 19 17 332 -14 156 1 52 -44 6 19 156 46 49 -44 13 13 155 11 13 -43 59 8 157 39 39 -44 21 59
154 1 49 -40 14 13 18 23 47 21 333 -16 153 42 1 -40 12 6 154 21 44 -40 16 26 152 56 57 -40 7 37 155 8 5 -40 21 56
152 17 19 -36 54 37 18 24 15 24 334 -18 151 59 1 -36 53 10 152 35 42 -36 56 9 151 17 16 -36 50 8 153 18 20 -36 59 58
150 54 17 -33 57 15 18 24 43 28 334 -19 150 37 1 -33 56 13 151 11 37 -33 58 21 149 57 32 -33 54 4 151 51 46 -34 1 8
149 45 10 -31 15 23 18 25 11 30 335 -21 149 28 39 -31 14 38 150 1 45 -31 16 12 148 50 51 -31 13 7 150 40 5 -31 18 16
148 45 50 -28 45 8 18 25 39 33 335 -22 148 29 53 -28 44 35 149 1 49 -28 45 43 147 53 23 -28 43 31 149 38 46 -28 47 16
147 53 44 -26 23 57 18 26 7 35 335 -23 147 38 16 -26 23 34 148 9 15 -26 24 23 147 2 48 -26 22 51 148 45 5 -26 25 32
147 7 14 -24 10 7 18 26 35 38 335 -24 146 52 8 -24 9 52 147 22 22 -24 10 25 146 17 32 -24 9 25 147 57 18 -24 11 16
146 25 11 -22 2 22 18 27 3 40 335 -25 146 10 24 -22 2 13 146 40 0 -22 2 34 145 36 30 -22 1 59 147 14 11 -22 3 10
145 46 44 -19 59 46 18 27 31 42 335 -25 145 32 13 -19 59 41 146 1 17 -19 59 53 144 58 55 -19 59 38 146 34 52 -20 0 16
145 11 18 -18 1 33 18 27 59 44 335 -26 144 57 0 -18 1 33 145 25 38 -18 1 36 144 24 13 -18 1 39 145 58 40 -18 1 49
144 38 24 -16 7 9 18 28 27 46 334 -27 144 24 17 -16 7 12 144 52 32 -16 7 8 143 51 55 -16 7 27 145 25 8 -16 7 13
144 7 40 -14 16 6 18 28 55 48 334 -27 143 53 43 -14 16 12 144 21 38 -14 16 1 143 21 42 -14 16 33 144 53 52 -14 15 59
143 38 48 -12 27 59 18 29 23 49 333 -28 143 24 59 -12 28 7 143 52 38 -12 27 52 142 53 17 -12 28 34 144 24 32 -12 27 42
143 11 34 -10 42 28 18 29 51 51 333 -28 142 57 52 -10 42 39 143 25 18 -10 42 19 142 26 26 -10 43 11 143 56 56 -10 42 4
142 45 48 - 8 59 18 18 30 19 53 332 -28 142 32 11 - 8 59 31 142 59 25 - 8 59 6 142 0 58 - 9 0 7 143 30 50 - 8 58 46
142 21 18 - 7 18 13 18 30 47 54 332 -29 142 7 46 - 7 18 28 142 34 51 - 7 18 0 141 36 43 - 7 19 8 143 6 5 - 7 17 35
141 57 58 - 5 39 1 18 31 15 56 331 -29 141 44 30 - 5 39 17 142 11 27 - 5 38 46 141 13 35 - 5 40 1 142 42 32 - 5 38 17
141 35 40 - 4 1 31 18 31 43 57 330 -29 141 22 15 - 4 1 49 141 49 6 - 4 1 14 140 51 27 - 4 2 36 142 20 4 - 4 0 42
141 14 19 - 2 25 33 18 32 11 59 329 -29 141 0 56 - 2 25 52 141 27 43 - 2 25 15 140 30 13 - 2 26 43 141 58 36 - 2 24 40
140 53 50 - 0 50 58 18 32 39 60 328 -30 140 40 28 - 0 51 19 141 7 13 - 0 50 39 140 9 48 - 0 52 12 141 38 2 - 0 50 1
140 34 9 0 42 20 18 33 7 62 327 -30 140 20 48 0 41 58 140 47 31 0 42 40 139 50 10 0 41 3 141 18 18 0 43 22
140 15 12 2 14 30 18 33 35 63 325 -30 140 1 51 2 14 7 140 28 33 2 14 51 139 31 13 2 13 10 140 59 21 2 15 35
139 56 56 3 45 38 18 34 3 64 324 -30 139 43 35 3 45 14 140 10 18 3 46 0 139 12 55 3 44 14 140 41 6 3 46 46
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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