|
|
Updated: 2006 AUG 08, 01:39 UT
Event Rank : 92
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Sep 10 UT, the 102 km diameter asteroid (1390) Abastumani will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across western New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland, from Mildura (low elevation) across Bourke to Rockhampton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.0 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
132 58 29 -43 0 0 17 50 51 0 38 -37 133 49 36 ... .. .. 134 39 33 ... .. ..
134 2 25 -42 0 0 17 50 51 1 38 -37 134 52 33 133 12 9 135 41 34 132 22 46
135 4 50 -41 0 0 17 50 51 3 37 -37 135 54 3 134 15 29 136 42 13 133 27 2
136 5 51 -40 0 0 17 50 52 4 36 -37 136 54 14 135 17 23 137 41 35 134 29 47
137 5 37 -39 0 0 17 50 52 5 36 -37 137 53 13 136 17 57 138 39 48 135 31 9
138 4 13 -38 0 0 17 50 53 6 35 -36 138 51 5 137 17 18 139 36 57 136 31 15
139 1 46 -37 0 0 17 50 54 8 35 -36 139 47 56 138 15 32 140 33 8 137 30 11
139 58 20 -36 0 0 17 50 55 9 34 -36 140 43 51 139 12 46 141 28 26 138 28 4
140 54 1 -35 0 0 17 50 56 10 33 -35 141 38 56 140 9 4 142 22 56 139 24 58
141 48 54 -34 0 0 17 50 58 11 33 -35 142 33 15 141 4 31 143 16 43 140 21 0
142 43 2 -33 0 0 17 50 59 13 32 -35 143 26 53 141 59 12 144 9 50 141 16 12
143 36 31 -32 0 0 17 51 1 14 32 -34 144 19 52 142 53 10 145 2 22 142 10 41
144 29 25 -31 0 0 17 51 3 15 31 -34 145 12 19 143 46 32 145 54 22 143 4 30
145 21 46 -30 0 0 17 51 5 16 31 -33 146 4 14 144 39 19 146 45 53 143 57 43
146 13 39 -29 0 0 17 51 7 18 30 -33 146 55 44 145 31 36 147 37 0 144 50 24
147 5 7 -28 0 0 17 51 10 19 30 -32 147 46 50 146 23 26 148 27 45 145 42 36
147 56 13 -27 0 0 17 51 12 20 29 -32 148 37 36 147 14 52 149 18 12 146 34 23
148 47 0 -26 0 0 17 51 15 21 29 -31 149 28 5 148 5 58 150 8 23 147 25 47
149 37 32 -25 0 0 17 51 18 23 29 -31 150 18 20 148 56 47 150 58 22 148 16 53
150 27 50 -24 0 0 17 51 21 24 28 -30 151 8 23 149 47 21 151 48 11 149 7 43
151 17 59 -23 0 0 17 51 25 25 28 -30 151 58 18 150 37 44 152 37 53 149 58 21
152 8 1 -22 0 0 17 51 28 26 27 -29 152 48 8 151 27 58 153 27 31 150 48 48
152 57 58 -21 0 0 17 51 32 28 27 -28 153 37 54 152 18 7 154 17 7 151 39 7
153 47 54 -20 0 0 17 51 35 29 26 -27 154 27 40 153 8 12 155 6 45 152 29 22
154 37 50 -19 0 0 17 51 39 30 26 -27 155 17 29 153 58 17 155 56 26 153 19 36
155 27 50 -18 0 0 17 51 43 31 26 -26 156 7 22 154 48 24 156 46 13 154 9 50
156 17 56 -17 0 0 17 51 48 33 25 -25 156 57 24 155 38 36 157 36 10 155 0 8
157 8 12 -16 0 0 17 51 52 34 25 -24 157 47 35 156 28 55 158 26 18 155 50 31
157 58 38 -15 0 0 17 51 56 35 24 -24 158 38 0 157 19 24 159 16 41 156 41 4
158 49 20 -14 0 0 17 52 1 36 24 -23 159 28 40 158 10 7 160 7 20 157 31 48
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]