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Updated: 2006 AUG 05, 03:18 UT
Event Rank : 75
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Sep 02 UT, the 73 km diameter asteroid (601) Nerthus will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a path across central Australia, from about 250 km east of Darwin southwards to Eucla .
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.3 mag to 14.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
135 27 34 - 4 22 7 12 54 58 75 260 -59 135 47 24 - 4 26 28 135 7 45 - 4 17 44 136 17 13 - 4 32 59 134 38 7 - 4 11 9
135 3 13 - 5 44 44 12 55 16 76 265 -59 135 23 5 - 5 49 6 134 43 23 - 5 40 21 135 52 58 - 5 55 37 134 13 41 - 5 33 45
134 39 18 - 7 7 18 12 55 34 76 271 -59 134 59 14 - 7 11 40 134 19 25 - 7 2 54 135 29 11 - 7 18 13 133 49 39 - 6 56 17
134 15 47 - 8 29 51 12 55 51 76 277 -59 134 35 46 - 8 34 15 133 55 50 - 8 25 26 135 5 49 - 8 40 49 133 25 59 - 8 18 48
133 52 38 - 9 52 27 12 56 9 77 283 -58 134 12 42 - 9 56 51 133 32 37 - 9 48 1 134 42 51 -10 3 27 133 2 39 - 9 41 21
133 29 49 -11 15 7 12 56 27 76 288 -58 133 49 58 -11 19 33 133 9 43 -11 10 41 134 20 15 -11 26 11 132 39 37 -11 3 59
133 7 19 -12 37 56 12 56 45 76 294 -58 133 27 33 -12 42 24 132 47 7 -12 33 28 133 58 0 -12 49 3 132 16 52 -12 26 45
132 45 5 -14 0 56 12 57 3 76 300 -57 133 5 27 -14 5 25 132 24 46 -13 56 27 133 36 4 -14 12 6 131 54 22 -13 49 42
132 23 8 -15 24 11 12 57 21 75 305 -57 132 43 37 -15 28 41 132 2 41 -15 19 40 133 14 25 -15 35 25 131 32 6 -15 12 52
132 1 24 -16 47 42 12 57 39 75 310 -56 132 22 1 -16 52 14 131 40 49 -16 43 9 132 53 2 -16 59 0 131 10 1 -16 36 19
131 39 52 -18 11 33 12 57 56 74 314 -56 132 0 39 -18 16 7 131 19 8 -18 6 59 132 31 54 -18 22 57 130 48 7 -18 0 5
131 18 32 -19 35 49 12 58 14 73 318 -55 131 39 29 -19 40 24 130 57 38 -19 31 12 132 11 0 -19 47 17 130 26 21 -19 24 15
130 57 22 -21 0 31 12 58 32 72 322 -54 131 18 30 -21 5 9 130 36 16 -20 55 52 131 50 18 -21 12 5 130 4 43 -20 48 52
130 36 20 -22 25 43 12 58 50 71 325 -54 130 57 40 -22 30 24 130 15 2 -22 21 2 131 29 47 -22 37 24 129 43 11 -22 13 58
130 15 25 -23 51 30 12 59 8 70 328 -53 130 36 59 -23 56 14 129 53 54 -23 46 46 131 9 26 -24 3 17 129 21 43 -23 39 38
129 54 36 -25 17 56 12 59 26 69 331 -52 130 16 25 -25 22 42 129 32 50 -25 13 9 130 49 14 -25 29 50 129 0 18 -25 5 56
129 33 52 -26 45 4 12 59 44 68 333 -51 129 55 56 -26 49 53 129 11 50 -26 40 13 130 29 10 -26 57 6 128 38 54 -26 32 56
129 13 10 -28 12 59 13 0 1 67 335 -51 129 35 33 -28 17 52 128 50 51 -28 8 5 130 9 13 -28 25 10 128 17 29 -28 0 42
128 52 30 -29 41 46 13 0 19 65 337 -50 129 15 12 -29 46 42 128 29 52 -29 36 48 129 49 21 -29 54 6 127 56 3 -29 29 20
128 31 50 -31 11 30 13 0 37 64 339 -49 128 54 53 -31 16 31 128 8 52 -31 6 28 129 29 34 -31 24 0 127 34 32 -30 58 54
128 11 9 -32 42 17 13 0 55 63 341 -48 128 34 34 -32 47 22 127 47 48 -32 37 11 129 9 49 -32 54 58 127 12 54 -32 29 30
127 50 24 -34 14 13 13 1 13 61 342 -47 128 14 14 -34 19 23 127 26 39 -34 9 2 128 50 7 -34 27 6 126 51 9 -34 1 14
127 29 34 -35 47 25 13 1 31 60 344 -46 127 53 51 -35 52 40 127 5 22 -35 42 9 128 30 25 -36 0 32 126 29 12 -35 34 13
127 8 37 -37 22 1 13 1 49 59 345 -45 127 33 24 -37 27 22 126 43 56 -37 16 39 128 10 43 -37 35 22 126 7 2 -37 8 35
126 47 31 -38 58 9 13 2 6 57 346 -44 127 12 50 -39 3 36 126 22 17 -38 52 41 127 50 59 -39 11 45 125 44 35 -38 44 27
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