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Updated: 2006 JUN 12, 21:26 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Jun 24 UT, the 136 km diameter asteroid (95) Arethusa will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a path across north-eastern New South Wales and Queensland. Note that morning twilight will strongly interfere.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.5 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
157 39 15 -36 56 35 20 52 16 24 294 1 156 19 15 -36 57 36 159 2 26 -36 55 49 155 26 27 -36 58 25 160 1 3 -36 55 27
155 36 19 -35 21 6 20 52 34 26 295 0 154 21 47 -35 22 23 156 53 22 -35 20 0 153 32 23 -35 23 22 157 47 22 -35 19 23
153 48 58 -33 48 17 20 52 53 28 296 0 152 38 42 -33 49 47 155 1 17 -33 46 57 151 51 59 -33 50 53 155 51 46 -33 46 9
152 13 53 -32 17 46 20 53 11 30 296 -1 151 7 3 -32 19 25 153 22 27 -32 16 16 150 22 32 -32 20 37 154 10 10 -32 15 19
150 48 46 -30 49 17 20 53 30 31 296 -1 149 44 47 -30 51 3 151 54 16 -30 47 38 149 2 5 -30 52 20 152 39 44 -30 46 35
149 31 56 -29 22 36 20 53 49 33 297 -1 148 30 20 -29 24 28 150 34 51 -29 20 50 147 49 9 -29 25 48 151 18 27 -29 19 42
148 22 4 -27 57 31 20 54 7 34 296 -2 147 22 30 -27 59 28 149 22 48 -27 55 40 146 42 38 -28 0 51 150 4 50 -27 54 28
147 18 10 -26 33 53 20 54 26 36 296 -2 146 20 22 -26 35 54 148 17 2 -26 31 58 145 41 38 -26 37 20 148 57 43 -26 30 43
146 19 26 -25 11 34 20 54 45 37 296 -2 145 23 9 -25 13 38 147 16 41 -25 9 35 144 45 25 -25 15 6 147 56 12 -25 8 17
145 25 14 -23 50 27 20 55 3 38 296 -2 144 30 18 -23 52 34 146 21 3 -23 48 25 143 53 26 -23 54 3 146 59 34 -23 47 4
144 35 1 -22 30 25 20 55 22 40 295 -2 143 41 17 -22 32 34 145 29 36 -22 28 20 143 5 11 -22 34 4 146 7 13 -22 26 58
143 48 23 -21 11 22 20 55 40 41 295 -2 142 55 41 -21 13 33 144 41 51 -21 9 15 142 20 17 -21 15 5 145 18 41 -21 7 51
143 4 56 -19 53 14 20 55 59 42 294 -2 142 13 11 -19 55 27 143 57 26 -19 51 5 141 38 23 -19 57 0 144 33 34 -19 49 40
142 24 23 -18 35 57 20 56 18 43 294 -2 141 33 27 -18 38 11 143 16 0 -18 33 46 140 59 12 -18 39 45 143 51 31 -18 32 20
141 46 27 -17 19 25 20 56 36 44 293 -2 140 56 16 -17 21 40 142 37 17 -17 17 13 140 22 31 -17 23 15 143 12 15 -17 15 45
141 10 55 -16 3 35 20 56 55 45 292 -2 140 21 25 -16 5 52 142 1 3 -16 1 22 139 48 5 -16 7 27 142 35 32 -15 59 53
140 37 36 -14 48 24 20 57 13 46 291 -2 139 48 41 -14 50 42 141 27 7 -14 46 9 139 15 46 -14 52 17 142 1 8 -14 44 40
140 6 19 -13 33 48 20 57 32 47 290 -2 139 17 56 -13 36 7 140 55 16 -13 31 33 138 45 22 -13 37 43 141 28 54 -13 30 3
139 36 55 -12 19 44 20 57 51 47 289 -2 138 49 2 -12 22 4 140 25 23 -12 17 28 138 16 46 -12 23 41 140 58 40 -12 15 58
139 9 18 -11 6 10 20 58 9 48 288 -2 138 21 50 -11 8 31 139 57 19 -11 3 53 137 49 51 -11 10 8 140 30 17 -11 2 22
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