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Updated: 2006 APR 19, 22:58 UT
Event Rank : 49
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Apr 25 UT, the 19 km diameter asteroid (434) Hungaria will occult a 8.9 mag star in the constellation Hercules for observers along a narrow path across central Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.8 mag to 13.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
126 14 2 -37 0 0 17 55 5 39 357 -50 126 20 42 126 7 22 126 38 25 125 49 38
125 58 31 -36 0 0 17 55 11 40 358 -51 126 5 6 125 51 56 126 22 36 125 34 26
125 43 6 -35 0 0 17 55 18 41 358 -52 125 49 36 125 36 36 126 6 54 125 19 18
125 27 45 -34 0 0 17 55 25 42 358 -52 125 34 11 125 21 20 125 51 16 125 4 14
125 12 29 -33 0 0 17 55 32 43 358 -53 125 18 50 125 6 7 125 35 44 124 49 13
124 57 16 -32 0 0 17 55 39 44 359 -53 125 3 33 124 50 58 125 20 16 124 34 14
124 42 5 -31 0 0 17 55 46 45 359 -54 124 48 18 124 35 52 125 4 51 124 19 18
124 26 57 -30 0 0 17 55 53 46 359 -55 124 33 6 124 20 47 124 49 29 124 4 23
124 11 50 -29 0 0 17 56 1 47 360 -55 124 17 56 124 5 44 124 34 10 123 49 29
123 56 44 -28 0 0 17 56 8 48 360 -56 124 2 47 123 50 41 124 18 52 123 34 35
123 41 38 -27 0 0 17 56 16 49 0 -56 123 47 38 123 35 39 124 3 35 123 19 41
123 26 33 -26 0 0 17 56 24 50 1 -57 123 32 30 123 20 36 123 48 19 123 4 47
123 11 27 -25 0 0 17 56 32 51 1 -57 123 17 21 123 5 33 123 33 2 122 49 51
122 56 20 -24 0 0 17 56 40 52 1 -57 123 2 11 122 50 28 123 17 45 122 34 53
122 41 11 -23 0 0 17 56 48 53 2 -58 122 47 0 122 35 22 123 2 28 122 19 54
122 26 0 -22 0 0 17 56 56 54 2 -58 122 31 47 122 20 14 122 47 8 122 4 52
122 10 47 -21 0 0 17 57 4 55 3 -59 122 16 32 122 5 3 122 31 47 121 49 47
121 55 31 -20 0 0 17 57 13 56 3 -59 122 1 14 121 49 49 122 16 24 121 34 38
121 40 12 -19 0 0 17 57 21 57 3 -59 121 45 52 121 34 32 122 0 57 121 19 26
121 24 49 -18 0 0 17 57 30 58 4 -60 121 30 28 121 19 11 121 45 28 121 4 10
121 9 22 -17 0 0 17 57 39 59 5 -60 121 14 59 121 3 45 121 29 54 120 48 49
120 53 51 -16 0 0 17 57 48 60 5 -60 120 59 26 120 48 15 121 14 17 120 33 23
120 38 14 -15 0 0 17 57 56 61 6 -60 120 43 48 120 32 40 120 58 35 120 17 52
120 22 32 -14 0 0 17 58 5 62 6 -60 120 28 4 120 16 59 120 42 48 120 2 15
120 6 44 -13 0 0 17 58 15 63 7 -61 120 12 15 120 1 13 120 26 56 119 46 31
119 50 50 -12 0 0 17 58 24 64 8 -61 119 56 20 119 45 20 120 10 58 119 30 41
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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