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Updated: 2006 FEB 03, 23:20 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Feb 13 UT, the 63 km diameter asteroid (199) Byblis will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across central Australia from Eucla to Townsville.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 14.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 20 56 -34 0 0 10 57 45 39 323 -6 126 4 52 124 37 29 127 24 21 123 21 17
126 28 7 -33 0 0 10 57 53 39 321 -7 127 12 19 125 44 25 128 32 22 124 27 50
127 37 3 -32 0 0 10 58 1 39 320 -8 128 21 37 126 53 1 129 42 22 125 35 56
128 47 54 -31 0 0 10 58 9 40 318 -9 129 32 54 128 3 28 130 54 32 126 45 44
130 0 51 -30 0 0 10 58 18 40 316 -11 130 46 23 129 15 56 132 9 5 127 57 24
131 16 7 -29 0 0 10 58 26 39 314 -12 132 2 17 130 30 36 133 26 15 129 11 6
132 33 55 -28 0 0 10 58 35 39 312 -14 133 20 51 131 47 41 134 46 19 130 27 4
133 54 32 -27 0 0 10 58 44 39 310 -15 134 42 23 133 7 29 136 9 38 131 45 30
135 18 19 -26 0 0 10 58 53 39 308 -17 136 7 13 134 30 16 137 36 35 133 6 42
136 45 38 -25 0 0 10 59 2 38 306 -18 137 35 48 135 56 25 139 7 40 134 30 58
138 16 57 -24 0 0 10 59 11 38 305 -20 139 8 37 137 26 21 140 43 29 135 58 41
139 52 51 -23 0 0 10 59 21 37 303 -22 140 46 19 139 0 36 142 24 48 137 30 19
141 34 4 -22 0 0 10 59 31 36 301 -24 142 29 42 140 39 50 144 12 35 139 6 24
143 21 31 -21 0 0 10 59 41 35 299 -26 144 19 48 142 24 52 146 8 9 140 47 39
145 16 25 -20 0 0 10 59 52 34 297 -28 146 18 1 144 16 47 148 13 18 142 34 56
147 20 27 -19 0 0 11 0 3 33 295 -30 148 26 18 146 17 2 150 30 41 144 29 25
148 0 0 -18 41 54 11 0 6 32 295 -31 -19 11 52 -18 12 16 -20 6 8 -17 20 20
149 0 0 -18 15 22 11 0 11 31 294 -32 -18 45 7 -17 45 59 -19 38 55 -16 54 27
150 0 0 -17 49 59 11 0 16 31 293 -33 -18 19 29 -17 20 48 -19 12 52 -16 29 39
151 0 0 -17 25 43 11 0 21 30 292 -34 -17 55 0 -16 56 45 -18 47 59 -16 5 57
152 0 0 -17 2 33 11 0 25 29 291 -35 -17 31 38 -16 33 47 -18 24 14 -15 43 19
153 0 0 -16 40 30 11 0 30 28 291 -36 -17 9 23 -16 11 55 -18 1 37 -15 21 47
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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