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Updated: 2006 JAN 07, 01:55 UT
Event Rank : 76
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Jan 21 UT, the 76 km diameter asteroid (893) Leopoldina will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Eridanus for observers along a path across central South Australia, starting near Ceduna, passing near Birdsville and across Queensland, leaving Australia just north of Cairns.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 32 13 -37 16 38 12 36 8 42 305 -20 130 59 3 -37 1 29 132 5 56 -37 31 49 130 11 33 -36 39 23 132 56 9 -37 54 0
131 59 43 -36 21 51 12 36 15 42 304 -21 131 26 55 -36 6 52 132 33 3 -36 36 51 130 39 54 -35 45 1 133 22 42 -36 58 47
132 27 43 -35 27 35 12 36 22 42 303 -22 131 55 14 -35 12 45 133 0 43 -35 42 25 131 8 42 -34 51 8 133 49 50 -36 4 7
132 56 13 -34 33 47 12 36 29 42 301 -23 132 24 2 -34 19 7 133 28 53 -34 48 28 131 37 55 -33 57 43 134 17 32 -35 9 56
133 25 13 -33 40 27 12 36 36 42 300 -24 132 53 19 -33 25 55 133 57 36 -33 54 59 132 7 35 -33 4 44 134 45 49 -34 16 13
133 54 44 -32 47 32 12 36 43 42 299 -25 133 23 5 -32 33 9 134 26 52 -33 1 56 132 37 42 -32 12 10 135 14 40 -33 22 57
134 24 48 -31 55 2 12 36 50 42 298 -26 133 53 22 -31 40 47 134 56 41 -32 9 17 133 8 18 -31 20 0 135 44 8 -32 30 7
134 55 24 -31 2 54 12 36 57 42 297 -27 134 24 10 -30 48 47 135 27 4 -31 17 2 133 39 23 -30 28 11 136 14 12 -31 37 40
135 26 33 -30 11 8 12 37 3 42 296 -28 134 55 31 -29 57 8 135 58 3 -30 25 8 134 10 59 -29 36 43 136 44 53 -30 45 35
135 58 18 -29 19 42 12 37 10 42 294 -29 135 27 25 -29 5 50 136 29 37 -29 33 35 134 43 7 -28 45 35 137 16 12 -29 53 51
136 30 39 -28 28 35 12 37 17 42 293 -30 135 59 54 -28 14 50 137 1 49 -28 42 21 135 15 48 -27 54 44 137 48 11 -29 2 27
137 3 37 -27 37 46 12 37 24 42 292 -31 136 33 0 -27 24 7 137 34 40 -27 51 25 135 49 4 -27 4 11 138 20 51 -28 11 21
137 37 14 -26 47 14 12 37 31 42 291 -32 137 6 43 -26 33 41 138 8 12 -27 0 47 136 22 55 -26 13 54 138 54 13 -27 20 33
138 11 33 -25 56 57 12 37 38 42 290 -33 137 41 6 -25 43 30 138 42 25 -26 10 24 136 57 25 -25 23 53 139 28 19 -26 30 1
138 46 33 -25 6 55 12 37 45 41 289 -34 138 16 11 -24 53 34 139 17 23 -25 20 15 137 32 34 -24 34 5 140 3 12 -25 39 44
139 22 19 -24 17 6 12 37 52 41 288 -35 138 51 58 -24 3 51 139 53 6 -24 30 21 138 8 25 -23 44 30 140 38 52 -24 49 41
139 58 52 -23 27 30 12 37 58 41 286 -36 139 28 32 -23 14 21 140 29 38 -23 40 39 138 45 0 -22 55 7 141 15 23 -23 59 51
140 36 14 -22 38 6 12 38 5 40 285 -37 140 5 54 -22 25 2 141 7 1 -22 51 10 139 22 22 -22 5 56 141 52 46 -23 10 13
141 14 28 -21 48 52 12 38 12 40 284 -38 140 44 6 -21 35 53 141 45 17 -22 1 51 140 0 32 -21 16 55 142 31 6 -22 20 46
141 53 37 -20 59 48 12 38 19 40 283 -39 141 23 12 -20 46 54 142 24 29 -21 12 41 140 39 34 -20 28 3 143 10 24 -21 31 29
142 33 45 -20 10 53 12 38 26 39 282 -40 142 3 15 -19 58 4 143 4 42 -20 23 41 141 19 30 -19 39 20 143 50 44 -20 42 21
143 14 54 -19 22 5 12 38 33 39 281 -41 142 44 18 -19 9 21 143 45 58 -19 34 49 142 0 25 -18 50 44 144 32 11 -19 53 22
143 57 10 -18 33 25 12 38 40 38 280 -42 143 26 26 -18 20 45 144 28 22 -18 46 3 142 42 22 -18 2 15 145 14 48 -19 4 29
144 40 35 -17 44 50 12 38 47 38 279 -43 144 9 42 -17 32 15 145 11 57 -17 57 24 143 25 25 -17 13 51 145 58 39 -18 15 43
145 25 16 -16 56 21 12 38 53 37 278 -44 144 54 11 -16 43 51 145 56 50 -17 8 50 144 9 38 -16 25 33 146 43 52 -17 27 2
146 11 17 -16 7 56 12 39 0 36 278 -45 145 39 58 -15 55 30 146 43 6 -16 20 20 144 55 7 -15 37 19 147 30 30 -16 38 25
146 58 45 -15 19 33 12 39 7 36 277 -47 146 27 10 -15 7 12 147 30 51 -15 31 53 145 41 56 -14 49 7 148 18 42 -15 49 51
147 47 46 -14 31 13 12 39 14 35 276 -48 147 15 52 -14 18 56 148 20 12 -14 43 29 146 30 14 -14 0 58 149 8 34 -15 1 20
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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