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Updated: 2005 DEC 20, 15:33 UT
Event Rank : 61
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Jan 16 UT, the 68 km diameter asteroid (927) Ratisbona will occult a 8.0 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across Papua New Guinea, north western Northern Territory, passing near Darwin and then over central Western Australia, leaving the continent west of Albany just before sunset.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.7 mag to 14.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
120 13 53 -29 0 0 11 21 25 17 18 -5 119 47 40 120 40 9 118 54 19 121 33 53
120 48 9 -28 0 0 11 21 19 18 18 -6 120 22 6 121 14 14 119 29 8 122 7 37
121 22 33 -27 0 0 11 21 14 19 17 -7 120 56 40 121 48 28 120 4 2 122 41 31
121 57 6 -26 0 0 11 21 8 20 17 -7 121 31 23 122 22 53 120 39 3 123 15 38
122 31 51 -25 0 0 11 21 2 21 17 -8 122 6 16 122 57 30 121 14 14 123 49 59
123 6 49 -24 0 0 11 20 55 22 16 -9 122 41 21 123 32 20 121 49 34 124 24 34
123 42 0 -23 0 0 11 20 48 23 16 -10 123 16 39 124 7 24 122 25 6 124 59 25
124 17 27 -22 0 0 11 20 41 25 16 -11 123 52 12 124 42 45 123 0 51 125 34 34
124 53 10 -21 0 0 11 20 34 26 15 -12 124 28 0 125 18 23 123 36 51 126 10 2
125 29 11 -20 0 0 11 20 26 27 15 -13 125 4 6 125 54 20 124 13 6 126 45 49
126 5 32 -19 0 0 11 20 18 28 15 -14 125 40 30 126 30 37 124 49 39 127 21 59
126 42 13 -18 0 0 11 20 9 29 14 -15 126 17 15 127 7 15 125 26 30 127 58 32
127 19 17 -17 0 0 11 20 0 30 14 -16 126 54 21 127 44 17 126 3 42 128 35 29
127 56 45 -16 0 0 11 19 51 31 14 -17 127 31 51 128 21 43 126 41 15 129 12 52
128 34 38 -15 0 0 11 19 42 32 13 -18 128 9 45 128 59 36 127 19 11 129 50 43
129 12 58 -14 0 0 11 19 32 33 13 -19 128 48 6 129 37 55 127 57 33 130 29 3
129 51 47 -13 0 0 11 19 22 34 13 -20 129 26 54 130 16 45 128 36 21 131 7 54
130 31 6 -12 0 0 11 19 11 36 12 -21 130 6 11 130 56 5 129 15 36 131 47 17
131 10 57 -11 0 0 11 19 1 37 12 -22 130 46 0 131 35 57 129 55 22 132 27 14
131 51 21 -10 0 0 11 18 49 38 11 -23 131 26 22 132 16 25 130 35 39 133 7 48
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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