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Updated: 2005 OCT 20, 01:09 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Oct 25 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (686) Gersuind will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a path across Northern Territory and South Australia, the asteroid shadow passing over Darwin and Eyre Peninsula.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 12.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
130 26 53 - 9 4 43 14 33 22 50 318 -68 130 39 39 - 9 6 37 130 14 9 - 9 2 50 131 0 8 - 9 9 43 129 53 51 - 8 59 52
130 34 19 -10 36 52 14 33 38 49 319 -66 130 47 11 -10 38 50 130 21 28 -10 34 56 131 7 51 -10 42 1 130 0 58 -10 31 53
130 43 21 -12 10 43 14 33 54 47 320 -65 130 56 22 -12 12 44 130 30 22 -12 8 43 131 17 15 -12 16 1 130 9 40 -12 5 34
130 54 10 -13 46 26 14 34 11 46 321 -63 131 7 20 -13 48 31 130 41 2 -13 44 22 131 28 28 -13 51 55 130 20 6 -13 41 7
131 6 58 -15 24 13 14 34 27 44 322 -62 131 20 18 -15 26 24 130 53 39 -15 22 5 131 41 44 -15 29 55 130 32 26 -15 18 42
131 21 57 -17 4 20 14 34 44 43 322 -60 131 35 31 -17 6 36 131 8 27 -17 2 6 131 57 17 -17 10 16 130 46 54 -16 58 35
131 39 27 -18 47 3 14 35 0 41 323 -59 131 53 14 -18 49 24 131 25 42 -18 44 43 132 15 24 -18 53 15 131 3 47 -18 41 2
131 59 48 -20 32 41 14 35 17 40 323 -57 132 13 52 -20 35 10 131 45 46 -20 30 13 132 36 29 -20 39 12 131 23 25 -20 26 22
132 23 26 -22 21 38 14 35 33 38 324 -55 132 37 50 -22 24 16 132 9 5 -22 19 3 133 1 0 -22 28 32 131 46 14 -22 14 58
132 50 58 -24 14 25 14 35 50 36 324 -53 133 5 45 -24 17 13 132 36 14 -24 11 39 133 29 33 -24 21 46 132 12 47 -24 7 19
133 23 8 -26 11 37 14 36 6 34 324 -51 133 38 23 -26 14 37 133 7 56 -26 8 40 134 2 56 -26 19 30 132 43 46 -26 4 1
134 0 57 -28 14 2 14 36 22 32 324 -50 134 16 46 -28 17 17 133 45 12 -28 10 50 134 42 15 -28 22 35 133 20 10 -28 5 49
134 45 48 -30 22 42 14 36 39 30 324 -47 135 2 20 -30 26 16 134 29 22 -30 19 12 135 28 58 -30 32 4 134 3 16 -30 13 42
135 39 44 -32 39 2 14 36 55 28 324 -45 135 57 9 -32 43 0 135 22 25 -32 35 8 136 25 16 -32 49 28 134 54 57 -32 29 2
136 45 46 -35 5 4 14 37 12 25 324 -43 137 4 23 -35 9 34 136 27 18 -35 0 39 137 34 28 -35 16 56 135 58 2 -34 53 44
138 8 53 -37 43 56 14 37 28 22 323 -40 138 29 10 -37 49 12 137 48 47 -37 38 46 139 2 4 -37 57 51 137 17 2 -37 30 43
139 58 2 -40 40 59 14 37 45 19 322 -37 140 20 54 -40 47 27 139 35 27 -40 34 40 140 58 11 -40 58 8 138 59 55 -40 24 52
142 32 26 -44 6 58 14 38 1 15 321 -33 143 0 3 -44 15 40 142 5 23 -43 58 33 143 45 31 -44 30 11 141 23 11 -43 45 37
146 51 1 -48 32 31 14 38 18 10 318 -29 147 31 54 -48 47 27 146 12 4 -48 18 30 148 42 9 -49 13 34 145 13 5 -47 57 38
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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