|
|
Updated: 2005 AUG 20, 22:35 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Sep 30 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (526) Jena will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across central Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.3 mag to 16.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 81.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 12 23 -10 0 0 14 0 24 55 252 -64 124 58 36 125 26 11 124 2 50 126 22 25
124 48 1 -11 0 0 14 4 44 54 253 -64 124 34 9 125 1 55 123 37 59 125 58 33
124 25 1 -12 0 0 14 9 6 54 255 -65 124 11 2 124 39 2 123 14 28 125 36 8
124 3 31 -13 0 0 14 13 30 53 256 -65 123 49 24 124 17 39 122 52 21 125 15 17
123 43 36 -14 0 0 14 17 57 53 257 -64 123 29 21 123 57 53 122 31 46 124 56 7
123 25 27 -15 0 0 14 22 26 52 259 -64 123 11 3 123 39 53 122 12 50 124 38 49
123 9 13 -16 0 0 14 26 58 52 260 -64 122 54 37 123 23 50 121 55 43 124 23 33
122 55 3 -17 0 0 14 31 32 51 261 -64 122 40 16 123 9 53 121 40 34 124 10 29
122 43 11 -18 0 0 14 36 9 50 262 -64 122 28 9 122 58 15 121 27 34 123 59 53
122 33 50 -19 0 0 14 40 49 49 263 -64 122 18 32 122 49 10 121 16 55 123 51 59
122 27 15 -20 0 0 14 45 32 48 264 -63 122 11 39 122 42 55 121 8 50 123 47 7
122 23 46 -21 0 0 14 50 19 47 265 -63 122 7 48 122 39 48 121 3 37 123 45 37
122 23 44 -22 0 0 14 55 10 46 265 -63 122 7 21 122 40 12 121 1 34 123 47 55
122 27 36 -23 0 0 15 0 5 45 266 -62 122 10 43 122 44 35 121 3 4 123 54 35
122 35 55 -24 0 0 15 5 5 44 267 -62 122 18 26 122 53 31 121 8 32 124 6 16
122 49 20 -25 0 0 15 10 10 43 267 -61 122 31 8 123 7 41 121 18 32 124 23 50
123 8 44 -26 0 0 15 15 23 41 267 -61 122 49 38 123 28 1 121 33 45 124 48 26
123 35 15 -27 0 0 15 20 44 40 267 -60 123 15 1 123 55 44 121 55 3 125 21 41
124 10 30 -28 0 0 15 26 15 38 267 -59 123 48 47 124 32 32 122 23 35 126 5 54
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
125 0 0 -29 3 39 15 32 21 36 267 -58 -29 29 55 -28 36 2 -31 6 11 -26 22 54
126 0 0 -30 1 58 15 38 14 34 267 -57 -30 24 31 -29 38 36 -31 49 36 -27 52 54
127 0 0 -30 47 13 15 43 6 32 266 -56 -31 7 24 -30 26 30 -32 24 51 -28 55 40
128 0 0 -31 23 24 15 47 16 30 265 -55 -31 41 55 -31 4 31 -32 53 48 -29 43 12
129 0 0 -31 52 47 15 50 53 29 265 -54 -32 10 4 -31 35 14 -33 17 44 -30 20 34
130 0 0 -32 16 47 15 54 6 27 264 -53 -32 33 7 -32 0 14 -33 37 28 -30 50 30
131 0 0 -32 36 22 15 56 59 26 263 -52 -32 51 57 -32 20 36 -33 53 39 -31 14 38
132 0 0 -32 52 12 15 59 35 25 263 -52 -33 7 11 -32 37 4 -34 6 44 -31 34 4
133 0 0 -33 4 48 16 1 57 23 262 -51 -33 19 18 -32 50 12 -34 17 5 -31 49 34
134 0 0 -33 14 35 16 4 6 22 261 -50 -33 28 40 -33 0 23 -34 25 0 -32 1 42
135 0 0 -33 21 49 16 6 4 21 261 -49 -33 35 34 -33 7 58 -34 30 41 -32 10 52
136 0 0 -33 26 46 16 7 53 20 260 -49 -33 40 15 -33 13 13 -34 34 20 -32 17 26
137 0 0 -33 29 38 16 9 32 18 259 -48 -33 42 53 -33 16 19 -34 36 6 -32 21 38
138 0 0 -33 30 35 16 11 3 17 259 -47 -33 43 38 -33 17 28 -34 36 9 -32 23 41
139 0 0 -33 29 44 16 12 27 16 258 -47 -33 42 38 -33 16 48 -34 34 33 -32 23 46
140 0 0 -33 27 15 16 13 44 15 257 -46 -33 40 0 -33 14 27 -34 31 25 -32 22 3
141 0 0 -33 23 11 16 14 54 14 257 -45 -33 35 49 -33 10 30 -34 26 49 -32 18 37
142 0 0 -33 17 38 16 15 58 13 256 -45 -33 30 12 -33 5 3 -34 20 51 -32 13 36
143 0 0 -33 10 42 16 16 57 12 255 -44 -33 23 11 -32 58 12 -34 13 34 -32 7 6
144 0 0 -33 2 26 16 17 50 11 255 -44 -33 14 51 -32 49 59 -34 5 2 -31 59 10
145 0 0 -32 52 53 16 18 37 10 254 -43 -33 5 16 -32 40 29 -33 55 16 -31 49 53
146 0 0 -32 42 7 16 19 20 9 253 -42 -32 54 28 -32 29 45 -33 44 21 -31 39 20
147 0 0 -32 30 11 16 19 58 8 253 -42 -32 42 30 -32 17 51 -33 32 19 -31 27 32
148 0 0 -32 17 7 16 20 31 7 252 -41 -32 29 25 -32 4 47 -33 19 11 -31 14 34
149 0 0 -32 2 57 16 20 59 6 252 -41 -32 15 15 -31 50 38 -33 5 0 -31 0 28
150 0 0 -31 47 44 16 21 24 5 251 -40 -32 0 2 -31 35 25 -32 49 48 -30 45 16
151 0 0 -31 31 30 16 21 43 4 251 -39 -31 43 48 -31 19 11 -32 33 36 -30 29 1
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]