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Updated: 2005 SEP 15, 01:46 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Sep 19 UT, the 48 km diameter asteroid (204) Kallisto will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across the northern and eastern parts of the north island of New Zealand, passing near Auckland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.1 mag to 12.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
173 49 59 -29 43 38 14 36 29 18 274 -47 174 39 17 -29 45 21 173 2 32 -29 41 45 176 2 41 -29 47 38 171 50 2 -29 38 24
173 55 33 -30 12 41 14 36 38 18 274 -46 174 45 28 -30 14 22 173 7 32 -30 10 50 176 10 0 -30 16 36 171 54 12 -30 7 31
174 2 8 -30 41 47 14 36 48 18 274 -46 174 52 45 -30 43 26 173 13 30 -30 39 57 176 18 31 -30 45 35 171 59 18 -30 36 40
174 9 48 -31 10 56 14 36 57 17 274 -45 175 1 9 -31 12 32 173 20 30 -31 9 8 176 28 17 -31 14 37 172 5 19 -31 5 53
174 18 34 -31 40 8 14 37 6 17 274 -45 175 10 43 -31 41 41 173 28 32 -31 38 22 176 39 21 -31 43 41 172 12 19 -31 35 10
174 28 31 -32 9 22 14 37 15 17 274 -45 175 21 33 -32 10 53 173 37 41 -32 7 39 176 51 49 -32 12 46 172 20 20 -32 4 30
174 39 41 -32 38 39 14 37 25 17 274 -44 175 33 41 -32 40 6 173 48 0 -32 36 59 177 5 46 -32 41 53 172 29 26 -32 33 54
174 52 10 -33 7 59 14 37 34 16 274 -44 175 47 13 -33 9 22 173 59 32 -33 6 22 177 21 16 -33 11 1 172 39 38 -33 3 22
175 6 1 -33 37 22 14 37 43 16 274 -43 176 2 13 -33 38 41 174 12 21 -33 35 49 177 38 27 -33 40 10 172 51 1 -33 32 53
175 21 19 -34 6 47 14 37 52 16 274 -43 176 18 47 -34 8 1 174 26 32 -34 5 18 177 57 27 -34 9 19 173 3 38 -34 2 28
175 38 11 -34 36 14 14 38 2 16 274 -42 176 37 2 -34 37 22 174 42 10 -34 34 50 178 18 25 -34 38 29 173 17 34 -34 32 6
175 56 43 -35 5 44 14 38 11 15 274 -42 176 57 7 -35 6 45 174 59 21 -35 4 25 178 41 30 -35 7 38 173 32 53 -35 1 48
176 17 2 -35 35 14 14 38 20 15 274 -41 177 19 9 -35 36 8 175 18 11 -35 34 2 179 6 54 -35 36 46 173 49 41 -35 31 33
176 39 18 -36 4 46 14 38 29 15 274 -41 177 43 19 -36 5 32 175 38 48 -36 3 41 179 34 54 -36 5 51 174 8 4 -36 1 21
177 3 40 -36 34 19 14 38 38 14 274 -40 178 9 50 -36 34 54 176 1 20 -36 33 21 -179 54 13 -36 34 53 174 28 8 -36 31 11
177 30 21 -37 3 51 14 38 48 14 274 -40 178 38 56 -37 4 15 176 25 58 -37 3 3 -179 20 6 -37 3 49 174 50 2 -37 1 4
177 59 35 -37 33 22 14 38 57 13 273 -39 179 10 55 -37 33 33 176 52 54 -37 32 44 -178 42 16 -37 32 38 175 13 55 -37 30 59
178 31 38 -38 2 51 14 39 6 13 273 -38 179 46 9 -38 2 46 177 22 20 -38 2 25 -178 0 7 -38 1 16 175 39 57 -38 0 55
179 6 52 -38 32 16 14 39 15 12 273 -38 -179 34 56 -38 31 53 177 54 33 -38 32 5 -177 12 51 -38 29 39 176 8 20 -38 30 52
179 45 42 -39 1 35 14 39 25 12 273 -37 -178 51 44 -39 0 50 178 29 54 -39 1 41 -176 19 19 -38 57 41 176 39 19 -39 0 49
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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