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Updated: 2005 MAY 09, 19:20 UT
Event Rank : 64
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Jun 04 UT, the 15 km diameter asteroid (433) Eros will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a path across W Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 12.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
- 98 8 50 -64 37 54 16 31 31 8 153 0 - 97 41 49 -64 53 53 - 98 36 11 -64 21 5 - 96 51 47 -65 21 59 - 99 28 48 -63 46 48
- 94 33 48 -68 46 41 16 31 47 12 149 -3 - 94 8 30 -68 56 23 - 94 59 4 -68 36 42 - 93 20 49 -69 13 56 - 95 46 31 -68 17 10
- 91 32 48 -71 49 45 16 32 2 15 146 -6 - 91 6 14 -71 56 58 - 91 59 15 -71 42 23 - 90 15 58 -72 10 4 - 92 48 41 -71 28 4
- 88 36 47 -74 22 5 16 32 18 18 143 -8 - 88 7 44 -74 27 47 - 89 5 40 -74 16 15 - 87 12 41 -74 38 9 - 89 59 33 -74 4 56
- 85 31 40 -76 35 20 16 32 33 20 140 -10 - 84 59 5 -76 39 56 - 86 4 3 -76 30 37 - 83 57 19 -76 48 16 - 87 4 23 -76 21 26
- 82 4 48 -78 34 58 16 32 49 22 136 -11 - 81 27 29 -78 38 40 - 82 41 54 -78 31 11 - 80 16 43 -78 45 17 - 83 50 59 -78 23 43
- 78 0 13 -80 23 53 16 33 5 24 132 -13 - 77 16 34 -80 26 43 - 78 43 38 -80 20 56 - 75 53 50 -80 31 44 - 80 4 30 -80 15 4
- 72 53 48 -82 3 28 16 33 20 26 126 -14 - 72 1 36 -82 5 25 - 73 45 45 -82 1 23 - 70 22 55 -82 8 44 - 75 22 41 -81 57 8
- 66 5 20 -83 33 52 16 33 36 27 119 -16 - 65 1 43 -83 34 48 - 67 8 51 -83 32 47 - 63 2 0 -83 36 9 - 69 7 50 -83 30 22
- 56 24 44 -84 53 39 16 33 52 29 109 -17 - 55 6 43 -84 53 16 - 57 43 11 -84 53 51 - 52 41 28 -84 52 8 - 60 11 31 -84 53 48
- 41 57 8 -85 58 36 16 34 7 30 94 -19 - 40 25 55 -85 56 28 - 43 30 15 -86 0 33 - 37 39 47 -85 52 1 - 46 30 2 -86 3 43
- 20 47 6 -86 39 56 16 34 23 31 72 -20 - 19 20 55 -86 35 41 - 22 17 19 -86 44 3 - 16 49 16 -86 27 23 - 25 18 20 -86 51 26
4 52 11 -86 47 0 16 34 38 32 46 -21 5 38 46 -86 41 5 4 2 25 -86 52 53 6 58 38 -86 29 56 2 19 8 -87 3 51
27 20 30 -86 19 52 16 34 54 34 23 -23 27 23 19 -86 13 30 27 17 25 -86 26 14 27 27 56 -86 1 36 27 10 45 -86 38 16
42 58 14 -85 30 51 16 35 10 35 7 -24 42 38 51 -85 24 47 43 18 29 -85 36 55 42 4 32 -85 13 24 43 59 8 -85 48 21
53 17 5 -84 31 4 16 35 25 36 356 -25 52 50 15 -84 25 28 53 44 51 -84 36 40 52 2 11 -84 14 56 54 39 46 -84 47 9
60 19 56 -83 26 27 16 35 41 37 348 -27 59 51 47 -83 21 17 60 48 51 -83 31 35 59 0 50 -83 11 34 61 45 25 -83 41 13
65 24 44 -82 19 47 16 35 56 37 342 -28 64 57 26 -82 15 0 65 52 37 -82 24 32 64 7 42 -82 5 59 66 46 44 -82 33 26
69 15 42 -81 12 24 16 36 12 38 338 -29 68 49 57 -81 7 57 69 41 54 -81 16 50 68 2 47 -80 59 32 70 32 29 -81 25 7
72 18 15 -80 5 0 16 36 28 39 334 -30 71 54 11 -80 0 49 72 42 41 -80 9 10 71 9 54 -79 52 55 73 29 39 -80 16 56
74 47 37 -78 57 54 16 36 43 40 331 -31 74 25 8 -78 53 58 75 10 23 -79 1 50 73 43 40 -78 46 30 75 54 0 -79 9 10
76 53 20 -77 51 17 16 36 59 41 328 -32 76 32 19 -77 47 33 77 14 35 -77 55 1 75 53 27 -77 40 28 77 55 13 -78 1 58
78 41 40 -76 45 14 16 37 14 41 325 -34 78 21 57 -76 41 41 79 1 35 -76 48 47 77 45 26 -76 34 56 79 39 34 -76 55 24
80 16 51 -75 39 48 16 37 30 42 323 -35 79 58 18 -75 36 24 80 35 34 -75 43 11 79 23 53 -75 29 57 81 11 13 -75 49 30
81 41 51 -74 34 57 16 37 46 43 320 -36 81 24 20 -74 31 42 81 59 31 -74 38 12 80 51 48 -74 25 32 82 33 7 -74 44 15
82 58 50 -73 30 42 16 38 1 43 318 -37 82 42 14 -73 27 35 83 15 33 -73 33 49 82 11 23 -73 21 40 83 47 19 -73 39 38
84 9 22 -72 27 2 16 38 17 44 316 -38 83 53 35 -72 24 1 84 25 14 -72 30 2 83 24 14 -72 18 20 84 55 24 -72 35 37
85 14 39 -71 23 54 16 38 33 44 314 -39 84 59 37 -71 21 0 85 29 47 -71 26 47 84 31 37 -71 15 31 85 58 29 -71 32 11
86 15 37 -70 21 17 16 38 48 45 312 -40 86 1 15 -70 18 29 86 30 4 -70 24 4 85 34 28 -70 13 11 86 57 28 -70 29 16
87 12 59 -69 19 8 16 39 4 45 310 -41 86 59 13 -69 16 26 87 26 50 -69 21 50 86 33 32 -69 11 19 87 53 4 -69 26 51
88 7 20 -68 17 26 16 39 19 45 308 -42 87 54 6 -68 14 49 88 20 37 -68 20 3 87 29 26 -68 9 52 88 45 48 -68 24 54
88 59 8 -67 16 9 16 39 35 46 306 -43 88 46 24 -67 13 37 89 11 55 -67 18 41 88 22 38 -67 8 50 89 36 9 -67 23 23
89 48 45 -66 15 15 16 39 51 46 304 -44 89 36 28 -66 12 48 90 1 5 -66 17 42 89 13 32 -66 8 9 90 24 26 -66 22 15
90 36 31 -65 14 41 16 40 6 46 302 -45 90 24 39 -65 12 18 90 48 27 -65 17 4 90 2 29 -65 7 48 91 11 0 -65 21 29
91 22 42 -64 14 27 16 40 22 47 300 -47 91 11 13 -64 12 8 91 34 15 -64 16 45 90 49 45 -64 7 46 91 56 4 -64 21 2
92 7 32 -63 14 29 16 40 37 47 299 -48 91 56 23 -63 12 14 92 18 43 -63 16 43 91 35 34 -63 7 59 92 39 52 -63 20 53
92 51 11 -62 14 46 16 40 53 47 297 -49 92 40 21 -62 12 35 93 2 2 -62 16 56 92 20 8 -62 8 28 93 22 34 -62 20 59
93 33 49 -61 15 16 16 41 9 47 295 -50 93 23 18 -61 13 9 93 44 23 -61 17 23 93 3 37 -61 9 9 94 4 21 -61 21 19
94 15 37 -60 15 58 16 41 24 47 293 -51 94 5 22 -60 13 55 94 25 54 -60 18 1 93 46 12 -60 10 1 94 45 20 -60 21 50
94 56 41 -59 16 50 16 41 40 47 291 -52 94 46 41 -59 14 50 95 6 42 -59 18 49 94 27 59 -59 11 3 95 25 39 -59 22 32
95 37 7 -58 17 50 16 41 55 47 290 -53 95 27 22 -58 15 53 95 46 55 -58 19 45 95 9 7 -58 12 12 96 5 24 -58 23 22
96 17 4 -57 18 55 16 42 11 47 288 -54 96 7 32 -57 17 2 96 26 38 -57 20 48 95 49 41 -57 13 27 96 44 42 -57 24 18
96 56 35 -56 20 5 16 42 27 47 286 -55 96 47 15 -56 18 15 97 5 57 -56 21 55 96 29 47 -56 14 47 97 23 38 -56 25 19
97 35 47 -55 21 18 16 42 42 47 284 -56 97 26 38 -55 19 31 97 44 58 -55 23 4 97 9 31 -55 16 9 98 2 17 -55 26 23
98 14 44 -54 22 32 16 42 58 47 283 -57 98 5 46 -54 20 48 98 23 44 -54 24 15 97 48 59 -54 17 31 98 40 43 -54 27 28
98 53 31 -53 23 45 16 43 14 46 281 -58 98 44 43 -53 22 4 99 2 21 -53 25 25 98 28 13 -53 18 53 99 19 1 -53 28 32
99 32 12 -52 24 55 16 43 29 46 279 -59 99 23 32 -52 23 17 99 40 52 -52 26 32 99 7 20 -52 20 12 99 57 15 -52 29 33
100 10 50 -51 26 0 16 43 45 46 278 -60 100 2 20 -51 24 25 100 19 23 -51 27 34 99 46 24 -51 21 26 100 35 29 -51 30 30
100 49 32 -50 26 59 16 44 0 46 276 -61 100 41 9 -50 25 27 100 57 56 -50 28 31 100 25 27 -50 22 33 101 13 47 -50 31 21
101 28 19 -49 27 50 16 44 16 45 274 -62 101 20 3 -49 26 21 101 36 35 -49 29 18 101 4 35 -49 23 32 101 52 13 -49 32 3
102 7 16 -48 28 30 16 44 32 45 273 -64 101 59 7 -48 27 4 102 15 26 -48 29 55 101 43 52 -48 24 21 102 30 51 -48 32 34
102 46 27 -47 28 58 16 44 47 44 271 -65 102 38 25 -47 27 35 102 54 31 -47 30 20 102 23 21 -47 24 57 103 9 44 -47 32 53
103 25 56 -46 29 10 16 45 3 44 270 -66 103 17 59 -46 27 50 103 33 54 -46 30 30 103 3 6 -46 25 19 103 48 56 -46 32 58
104 5 47 -45 29 6 16 45 18 43 268 -67 103 57 56 -45 27 49 104 13 40 -45 30 22 103 43 12 -45 25 23 104 28 32 -45 32 44
104 46 4 -44 28 42 16 45 34 43 267 -68 104 38 17 -44 27 28 104 53 53 -44 29 55 104 23 43 -44 25 8 105 8 36 -44 32 11
105 26 52 -43 27 55 16 45 50 42 266 -69 105 19 10 -43 26 45 105 34 36 -43 29 5 105 4 43 -43 24 30 105 49 12 -43 31 16
106 8 16 -42 26 43 16 46 5 42 264 -70 106 0 36 -42 25 36 106 15 56 -42 27 50 105 46 17 -42 23 28 106 30 24 -42 29 54
106 50 19 -41 25 3 16 46 21 41 263 -71 106 42 43 -41 23 59 106 57 56 -41 26 7 106 28 29 -41 21 57 107 12 18 -41 28 5
107 33 8 -40 22 51 16 46 36 40 261 -72 107 25 35 -40 21 50 107 40 43 -40 23 51 107 11 26 -40 19 55 107 55 0 -40 25 43
108 16 49 -39 20 4 16 46 52 39 260 -73 108 9 18 -39 19 6 108 24 21 -39 21 0 107 55 13 -39 17 17 108 38 34 -39 22 45
109 1 28 -38 16 36 16 47 8 39 259 -74 108 53 58 -38 15 43 109 8 58 -38 17 29 108 39 56 -38 14 1 109 23 9 -38 19 7
109 47 12 -37 12 25 16 47 23 38 258 -75 109 39 43 -37 11 35 109 54 41 -37 13 14 109 25 43 -37 10 1 110 8 50 -37 14 44
110 34 9 -36 7 24 16 47 39 37 257 -76 110 26 41 -36 6 39 110 41 38 -36 8 9 110 12 42 -36 5 12 110 55 46 -36 9 31
111 22 28 -35 1 28 16 47 55 36 255 -77 111 15 0 -35 0 47 111 29 58 -35 2 8 111 1 0 -34 59 28 111 44 6 -35 3 22
112 12 20 -33 54 30 16 48 10 35 254 -78 112 4 51 -33 53 54 112 19 51 -33 55 5 111 50 50 -33 52 44 112 34 1 -33 56 10
113 3 57 -32 46 22 16 48 26 34 253 -78 112 56 26 -32 45 51 113 11 30 -32 46 52 112 42 21 -32 44 51 113 25 44 -32 47 47
113 57 34 -31 36 55 16 48 41 33 252 -79 113 50 0 -31 36 30 114 5 9 -31 37 20 113 35 49 -31 35 40 114 19 29 -31 38 4
114 53 26 -30 25 59 16 48 57 32 251 -79 114 45 48 -30 25 40 115 1 5 -30 26 18 114 31 30 -30 25 2 115 15 33 -30 26 50
115 51 55 -29 13 21 16 49 13 30 250 -80 115 44 11 -29 13 9 115 59 40 -29 13 32 115 29 44 -29 12 43 116 14 18 -29 13 51
116 53 25 -27 58 44 16 49 28 29 249 -80 116 45 35 -27 58 40 117 1 17 -27 58 48 116 30 54 -27 58 29 117 16 9 -27 58 52
117 58 29 -26 41 50 16 49 44 28 248 -79 117 50 29 -26 41 55 118 6 31 -26 41 44 117 35 32 -26 42 0 118 21 40 -26 41 30
119 7 47 -25 22 12 16 49 59 26 247 -78 118 59 36 -25 22 27 119 16 1 -25 21 56 118 44 17 -25 22 53 119 31 34 -25 21 21
120 22 14 -23 59 18 16 50 15 24 246 -78 120 13 47 -23 59 45 120 30 43 -23 58 48 119 58 0 -24 0 34 120 46 46 -23 57 50
121 43 3 -22 32 20 16 50 31 23 245 -76 121 34 16 -22 33 4 121 51 53 -22 31 35 121 17 52 -22 34 21 122 8 37 -22 30 6
123 12 4 -21 0 15 16 50 46 21 244 -75 123 2 48 -21 1 19 123 21 22 -20 59 10 122 45 33 -21 3 12 123 39 1 -20 57 1
124 52 2 -19 21 20 16 51 2 18 244 -73 124 42 7 -19 22 51 125 2 1 -19 19 47 124 23 39 -19 25 34 125 21 0 -19 16 44
126 47 41 -17 32 45 16 51 17 16 243 -70 126 36 45 -17 34 56 126 58 43 -17 30 31 126 16 27 -17 38 51 127 19 46 -17 26 8
129 8 24 -15 28 53 16 51 33 13 242 -68 128 55 40 -15 32 11 129 21 19 -15 25 28 128 32 12 -15 38 6 129 46 7 -15 18 44
132 19 17 -12 54 47 16 51 49 9 241 -64 132 2 15 -13 0 42 132 36 50 -12 48 34 131 31 28 -13 11 5 133 11 23 -12 35 55
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