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Updated: 2005 MAY 02, 22:37 UT
Event Rank : 12
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 May 16 UT (before dawn on the 17th), the 15 km diameter asteroid (1506) Xosa will occult a 8.7 mag star in the constellation Serpens for observers along a path across Australia, China.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.5 mag to 14.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
118 4 3 - 9 0 0 20 2 59 66 251 -31 118 8 48 117 59 18 119 0 42 117 7 52
118 26 8 -10 0 0 20 2 42 66 253 -31 118 30 55 118 21 22 119 23 6 117 29 38
118 48 52 -11 0 0 20 2 24 66 255 -31 118 53 41 118 44 4 119 46 11 117 52 3
119 12 17 -12 0 0 20 2 6 66 258 -31 119 17 7 119 7 27 120 9 57 118 15 6
119 36 23 -13 0 0 20 1 48 66 260 -31 119 41 15 119 31 31 120 34 27 118 38 49
120 1 12 -14 0 0 20 1 30 66 262 -31 120 6 7 119 56 18 120 59 42 119 3 14
120 26 47 -15 0 0 20 1 12 66 265 -31 120 31 43 120 21 50 121 25 44 119 28 22
120 53 8 -16 0 0 20 0 53 65 267 -31 120 58 6 120 48 9 121 52 34 119 54 14
121 20 17 -17 0 0 20 0 35 65 269 -31 121 25 19 121 15 16 122 20 15 120 20 53
121 48 17 -18 0 0 20 0 17 65 271 -31 121 53 21 121 43 13 122 48 49 120 48 21
122 17 10 -19 0 0 19 59 59 64 273 -31 122 22 17 122 12 3 123 18 17 121 16 39
122 46 58 -20 0 0 19 59 41 64 275 -30 122 52 8 122 41 47 123 48 44 121 45 49
123 17 43 -21 0 0 19 59 23 63 276 -30 123 22 57 123 12 30 124 20 11 122 15 56
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
124 0 0 -22 19 25 19 58 59 63 279 -30 -22 9 39 -22 29 10 -20 21 44 -24 13 48
125 0 0 -24 6 28 19 58 26 62 281 -29 -23 57 3 -24 15 52 -22 13 15 -25 56 46
126 0 0 -25 47 23 19 57 56 60 284 -29 -25 38 17 -25 56 27 -23 58 11 -27 33 57
127 0 0 -27 22 38 19 57 27 59 285 -28 -27 13 50 -27 31 24 -25 37 7 -29 5 47
128 0 0 -28 52 39 19 57 0 58 287 -28 -28 44 8 -29 1 9 -27 10 30 -30 32 41
129 0 0 -30 17 50 19 56 34 57 288 -27 -30 9 34 -30 26 5 -28 38 46 -31 54 58
130 0 0 -31 38 31 19 56 10 56 289 -27 -31 30 29 -31 46 31 -30 2 18 -33 12 57
131 0 0 -32 54 59 19 55 47 55 290 -26 -32 47 11 -33 2 47 -31 21 26 -34 26 55
132 0 0 -34 7 33 19 55 26 53 291 -25 -33 59 56 -34 15 9 -32 36 27 -35 37 9
133 0 0 -35 16 26 19 55 5 52 291 -25 -35 9 1 -35 23 51 -33 47 38 -36 43 51
134 0 0 -36 21 53 19 54 45 51 292 -24 -36 14 39 -36 29 7 -34 55 14 -37 47 15
135 0 0 -37 24 7 19 54 27 50 292 -24 -37 17 2 -37 31 11 -35 59 29 -38 47 33
136 0 0 -38 23 19 19 54 9 49 292 -23 -38 16 23 -38 30 13 -37 0 33 -39 44 56
137 0 0 -39 19 39 19 53 53 48 292 -22 -39 12 52 -39 26 25 -37 58 40 -40 39 34
138 0 0 -40 13 17 19 53 37 47 292 -22 -40 6 39 -40 19 55 -38 53 59 -41 31 36
139 0 0 -41 4 24 19 53 22 46 292 -21 -40 57 53 -41 10 53 -39 46 40 -42 21 10
140 0 0 -41 53 5 19 53 7 45 292 -21 -41 46 43 -41 59 28 -40 36 51 -43 8 26
141 0 0 -42 39 31 19 52 53 44 292 -20 -42 33 15 -42 45 46 -41 24 41 -43 53 30
142 0 0 -43 23 47 19 52 40 43 292 -19 -43 17 38 -43 29 56 -42 10 18 -44 36 28
143 0 0 -44 6 1 19 52 28 42 292 -19 -43 59 58 -44 12 4 -42 53 47 -45 17 29
144 0 0 -44 46 18 19 52 16 41 291 -18 -44 40 21 -44 52 15 -43 35 16 -45 56 36
145 0 0 -45 24 45 19 52 4 41 291 -18 -45 18 54 -45 30 36 -44 14 51 -46 33 57
146 0 0 -46 1 26 19 51 53 40 290 -17 -45 55 40 -46 7 12 -44 52 37 -47 9 35
147 0 0 -46 36 27 19 51 43 39 290 -17 -46 30 47 -46 42 8 -45 28 40 -47 43 36
148 0 0 -47 9 53 19 51 33 38 290 -16 -47 4 17 -47 15 29 -46 3 3 -48 16 5
149 0 0 -47 41 47 19 51 23 37 289 -16 -47 36 16 -47 47 18 -46 35 53 -48 47 5
150 0 0 -48 12 14 19 51 14 37 289 -15 -48 6 47 -48 17 41 -47 7 13 -49 16 41
151 0 0 -48 41 18 19 51 5 36 288 -14 -48 35 55 -48 46 40 -47 37 6 -49 44 55
152 0 0 -49 9 1 19 50 56 35 288 -14 -49 3 42 -49 14 20 -48 5 37 -50 11 53
153 0 0 -49 35 28 19 50 48 34 287 -13 -49 30 13 -49 40 43 -48 32 50 -50 37 35
154 0 0 -50 0 42 19 50 40 34 286 -13 -49 55 30 -50 5 53 -48 58 46 -51 2 7
155 0 0 -50 24 44 19 50 32 33 286 -12 -50 19 36 -50 29 52 -49 23 30 -51 25 30
156 0 0 -50 47 39 19 50 25 32 285 -12 -50 42 34 -50 52 44 -49 47 3 -51 47 46
157 0 0 -51 9 29 19 50 18 32 285 -11 -51 4 27 -51 14 30 -50 9 30 -52 9 0
158 0 0 -51 30 15 19 50 11 31 284 -11 -51 25 16 -51 35 14 -50 30 51 -52 29 12
159 0 0 -51 50 1 19 50 4 30 283 -11 -51 45 5 -51 54 57 -50 51 10 -52 48 25
160 0 0 -52 8 48 19 49 58 30 283 -10 -52 3 54 -52 13 41 -51 10 28 -53 6 41
161 0 0 -52 26 38 19 49 52 29 282 -10 -52 21 47 -52 31 29 -51 28 48 -53 24 2
162 0 0 -52 43 33 19 49 46 28 281 -9 -52 38 44 -52 48 21 -51 46 11 -53 40 29
163 0 0 -52 59 34 19 49 40 28 281 -9 -52 54 48 -53 4 21 -52 2 39 -53 56 5
164 0 0 -53 14 44 19 49 35 27 280 -8 -53 10 0 -53 19 28 -52 18 14 -54 10 50
165 0 0 -53 29 4 19 49 29 26 279 -8 -53 24 21 -53 33 46 -52 32 57 -54 24 46
166 0 0 -53 42 35 19 49 24 26 278 -7 -53 37 54 -53 47 15 -52 46 50 -54 37 55
167 0 0 -53 55 18 19 49 19 25 278 -7 -53 50 39 -53 59 56 -52 59 54 -54 50 18
168 0 0 -54 7 14 19 49 14 25 277 -6 -54 2 37 -54 11 51 -53 12 10 -55 1 55
169 0 0 -54 18 26 19 49 10 24 276 -6 -54 13 50 -54 23 1 -53 23 40 -55 12 49
170 0 0 -54 28 53 19 49 5 23 275 -6 -54 24 18 -54 33 27 -53 34 24 -55 22 59
171 0 0 -54 38 36 19 49 1 23 275 -5 -54 34 3 -54 43 9 -53 44 23 -55 32 27
172 0 0 -54 47 38 19 48 57 22 274 -5 -54 43 6 -54 52 9 -53 53 39 -55 41 14
173 0 0 -54 55 57 19 48 52 22 273 -4 -54 51 26 -55 0 27 -54 2 12 -55 49 20
174 0 0 -55 3 35 19 48 48 21 272 -4 -54 59 6 -55 8 5 -54 10 2 -55 56 47
175 0 0 -55 10 33 19 48 45 21 272 -3 -55 6 5 -55 15 2 -54 17 11 -56 3 34
176 0 0 -55 16 52 19 48 41 20 271 -3 -55 12 24 -55 21 19 -54 23 39 -56 9 42
177 0 0 -55 22 31 19 48 37 19 270 -2 -55 18 3 -55 26 58 -54 29 27 -56 15 13
178 0 0 -55 27 31 19 48 34 19 269 -2 -55 23 4 -55 31 57 -54 34 35 -56 20 6
179 0 0 -55 31 53 19 48 30 18 269 -2 -55 27 27 -55 36 19 -54 39 4 -56 24 21
180 0 0 -55 35 37 19 48 27 18 268 -1 -55 31 11 -55 40 2 -54 42 53 -56 27 59
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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