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Updated: 2005 FEB 25, 01:42 UT
Event Rank : 9
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Mar 21 UT (before dawn on the 22nd), the 20 km diameter asteroid (1695) Walbeck will occult a 8.4 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across Australia, Japan.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 9.5 mag to 17.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 46 7 -86 33 51 19 48 39 21 344 -2 136 9 17 -86 32 36 139 24 11 -86 34 57 115 13 10 -85 59 59 164 47 46 -86 33 21
131 32 29 -83 3 43 19 49 10 25 350 -3 130 46 4 -83 2 13 132 19 14 -83 5 10 119 59 54 -82 33 58 144 33 28 -83 19 39
129 45 16 -79 57 0 19 49 40 28 351 -5 129 13 32 -79 55 33 130 17 9 -79 58 25 121 40 53 -79 30 24 138 30 55 -80 15 19
128 55 42 -77 7 22 19 50 11 31 352 -6 128 31 1 -77 6 0 129 20 30 -77 8 42 122 34 34 -76 43 7 135 40 48 -77 25 47
128 27 44 -74 30 35 19 50 41 33 352 -7 128 7 12 -74 29 18 128 48 19 -74 31 51 123 8 48 -74 8 10 134 2 25 -74 48 32
128 10 4 -72 3 52 19 51 12 36 352 -8 127 52 18 -72 2 39 128 27 52 -72 5 4 123 32 58 -71 42 54 132 58 23 -72 21 11
127 58 4 -69 45 15 19 51 42 38 352 -9 127 42 17 -69 44 6 128 13 53 -69 46 24 123 51 10 -69 25 30 132 13 24 -70 1 57
127 49 30 -67 33 20 19 52 13 40 351 -10 127 35 13 -67 32 14 128 3 48 -67 34 25 124 5 31 -67 14 35 131 40 6 -67 49 26
127 43 8 -65 27 3 19 52 43 42 351 -11 127 30 1 -65 26 0 127 56 16 -65 28 6 124 17 10 -65 9 11 131 14 28 -65 42 36
127 38 17 -63 25 35 19 53 14 44 351 -12 127 26 7 -63 24 34 127 50 28 -63 26 36 124 26 53 -63 8 28 130 54 8 -63 40 37
127 34 29 -61 28 17 19 53 45 46 350 -12 127 23 6 -61 27 18 127 45 54 -61 29 15 124 35 8 -61 11 49 130 37 37 -61 42 51
127 31 29 -59 34 36 19 54 15 48 350 -13 127 20 45 -59 33 39 127 42 14 -59 35 33 124 42 15 -59 18 44 130 23 57 -59 48 45
127 29 4 -57 44 7 19 54 46 50 349 -14 127 18 53 -57 43 12 127 39 15 -57 45 2 124 48 28 -57 28 46 130 12 29 -57 57 53
127 27 6 -55 56 29 19 55 16 52 349 -14 127 17 24 -55 55 35 127 36 49 -55 57 22 124 53 59 -55 41 35 130 2 43 -56 9 53
127 25 30 -54 11 21 19 55 47 53 348 -15 127 16 13 -54 10 29 127 34 48 -54 12 13 124 58 54 -53 56 53 129 54 20 -54 24 26
127 24 12 -52 28 29 19 56 17 55 347 -16 127 15 17 -52 27 39 127 33 8 -52 29 20 125 3 20 -52 14 24 129 47 4 -52 41 16
127 23 9 -50 47 39 19 56 48 57 347 -16 127 14 34 -50 46 50 127 31 45 -50 48 29 125 7 23 -50 33 55 129 40 44 -51 0 9
127 22 19 -49 8 39 19 57 18 58 346 -17 127 14 1 -49 7 51 127 30 38 -49 9 27 125 11 5 -48 55 14 129 35 12 -49 20 53
127 21 40 -47 31 18 19 57 49 60 345 -17 127 13 38 -47 30 31 127 29 43 -47 32 5 125 14 31 -47 18 11 129 30 20 -47 43 17
127 21 11 -45 55 27 19 58 19 61 344 -17 127 13 23 -45 54 40 127 29 0 -45 56 13 125 17 43 -45 42 36 129 26 3 -46 7 13
127 20 51 -44 20 57 19 58 50 63 343 -18 127 13 15 -44 20 11 127 28 27 -44 21 43 125 20 43 -44 8 22 129 22 16 -44 32 30
127 20 40 -42 47 41 19 59 20 64 342 -18 127 13 16 -42 46 56 127 28 4 -42 48 26 125 23 34 -42 35 20 129 18 57 -42 59 3
127 20 36 -41 15 32 19 59 51 66 340 -19 127 13 23 -41 14 48 127 27 50 -41 16 16 125 26 17 -41 3 24 129 16 3 -41 26 43
127 20 41 -39 44 24 20 0 21 67 339 -19 127 13 37 -39 43 41 127 27 45 -39 45 8 125 28 54 -39 32 28 129 13 31 -39 55 24
127 20 53 -38 14 11 20 0 52 68 337 -19 127 13 59 -38 13 29 127 27 48 -38 14 54 125 31 26 -38 2 27 129 11 20 -38 25 2
127 21 14 -36 44 48 20 1 23 70 335 -19 127 14 27 -36 44 6 127 28 0 -36 45 30 125 33 55 -36 33 14 129 9 29 -36 55 29
127 21 42 -35 16 10 20 1 53 71 333 -20 127 15 2 -35 15 28 127 28 21 -35 16 51 125 36 21 -35 4 46 129 7 56 -35 26 42
127 22 18 -33 48 11 20 2 24 72 330 -20 127 15 45 -33 47 30 127 28 50 -33 48 52 125 38 46 -33 36 57 129 6 40 -33 58 35
127 23 2 -32 20 49 20 2 54 73 328 -20 127 16 36 -32 20 9 127 29 27 -32 21 29 125 41 11 -32 9 43 129 5 41 -32 31 5
127 23 54 -30 53 58 20 3 25 75 324 -20 127 17 34 -30 53 18 127 30 14 -30 54 38 125 43 37 -30 43 1 129 4 58 -31 4 7
127 24 55 -29 27 36 20 3 55 76 321 -20 127 18 41 -29 26 56 127 31 10 -29 28 15 125 46 4 -29 16 46 129 4 31 -29 37 38
127 26 5 -28 1 37 20 4 26 77 316 -21 127 19 56 -28 0 58 127 32 15 -28 2 16 125 48 34 -27 50 55 129 4 20 -28 11 33
127 27 25 -26 36 0 20 4 56 77 311 -21 127 21 21 -26 35 21 127 33 30 -26 36 38 125 51 7 -26 25 25 129 4 24 -26 45 49
127 28 55 -25 10 39 20 5 27 78 306 -21 127 22 54 -25 10 1 127 34 55 -25 11 17 125 53 45 -25 0 11 129 4 45 -25 20 23
127 30 35 -23 45 33 20 5 57 79 299 -21 127 24 39 -23 44 55 127 36 31 -23 46 11 125 56 28 -23 35 11 129 5 21 -23 55 11
127 32 26 -22 20 38 20 6 28 79 292 -21 127 26 33 -22 20 0 127 38 19 -22 21 15 125 59 17 -22 10 21 129 6 13 -22 30 10
127 34 29 -20 55 50 20 6 58 80 284 -21 127 28 39 -20 55 12 127 40 18 -20 56 27 126 2 13 -20 45 39 129 7 21 -21 5 16
127 36 43 -19 31 6 20 7 29 80 276 -21 127 30 57 -19 30 29 127 42 30 -19 31 43 126 5 17 -19 21 0 129 8 46 -19 40 28
127 39 11 -18 6 24 20 7 59 80 268 -21 127 33 28 -18 5 48 127 44 55 -18 7 0 126 8 29 -17 56 23 129 10 29 -18 15 41
127 41 53 -16 41 40 20 8 30 79 261 -21 127 36 12 -16 41 4 127 47 34 -16 42 16 126 11 52 -16 31 44 129 12 29 -16 50 53
127 44 50 -15 16 52 20 9 1 79 254 -21 127 39 11 -15 16 16 127 50 28 -15 17 27 126 15 25 -15 7 0 129 14 48 -15 26 0
127 48 2 -13 51 55 20 9 31 78 247 -21 127 42 25 -13 51 20 127 53 38 -13 52 31 126 19 10 -13 42 8 129 17 26 -14 0 59
127 51 30 -12 26 48 20 10 2 78 242 -21 127 45 56 -12 26 12 127 57 5 -12 27 23 126 23 8 -12 17 5 129 20 25 -12 35 48
127 55 17 -11 1 26 20 10 32 77 237 -21 127 49 44 -11 0 51 128 0 50 -11 2 1 126 27 21 -10 51 47 129 23 45 -11 10 22
127 59 22 - 9 35 46 20 11 3 76 232 -21 127 53 51 - 9 35 11 128 4 54 - 9 36 21 126 31 49 - 9 26 11 129 27 27 - 9 44 39
128 3 48 - 8 9 46 20 11 33 75 229 -21 127 58 18 - 8 9 11 128 9 18 - 8 10 20 126 36 34 - 8 0 14 129 31 34 - 8 18 35
128 8 36 - 6 43 21 20 12 4 74 225 -21 128 3 6 - 6 42 46 128 14 5 - 6 43 55 126 41 37 - 6 33 52 129 36 5 - 6 52 6
128 13 47 - 5 16 27 20 12 34 72 223 -20 128 8 18 - 5 15 53 128 19 15 - 5 17 2 126 47 0 - 5 7 2 129 41 4 - 5 25 10
128 19 23 - 3 49 2 20 13 5 71 220 -20 128 13 55 - 3 48 28 128 24 51 - 3 49 36 126 52 45 - 3 39 39 129 46 31 - 3 57 41
128 25 26 - 2 21 0 20 13 35 70 218 -20 128 19 59 - 2 20 26 128 30 54 - 2 21 34 126 58 54 - 2 11 41 129 52 29 - 2 29 36
128 31 59 - 0 52 18 20 14 6 69 216 -20 128 26 32 - 0 51 44 128 37 26 - 0 52 52 127 5 29 - 0 43 1 129 59 0 - 1 0 51
Use these links for further information:
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