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Updated: 2005 FEB 24, 05:18 UT
Event Rank : 63
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Mar 17 UT, the 72 km diameter asteroid (756) Lilliana will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a path across New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.3 mag to 15.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
-162 15 6 -83 35 54 9 12 5 5 310 -5 -175 59 42 -82 5 11 ... .. .. .. .. .. 172 1 58 -79 42 25 ... .. .. .. .. ..
177 42 21 -78 43 21 9 12 15 10 330 -7 173 54 41 -77 45 28 -177 17 10 -79 46 9 168 30 41 -76 3 44 -159 2 15 -82 7 45
173 19 46 -75 18 40 9 12 25 14 334 -8 171 1 18 -74 32 47 176 1 28 -76 6 52 167 19 33 -73 9 17 -177 1 51 -77 48 32
171 32 24 -72 31 22 9 12 35 16 335 -9 169 49 2 -71 52 8 173 27 29 -73 12 1 166 54 26 -70 39 30 177 55 39 -74 35 30
170 41 54 -70 6 4 9 12 45 19 336 -11 169 17 20 -69 31 10 172 13 41 -70 41 55 166 50 8 -68 25 56 175 37 33 -71 54 33
170 18 49 -67 55 40 9 12 55 21 336 -12 169 6 2 -67 23 53 171 36 35 -68 28 9 166 56 53 -66 24 6 174 24 31 -69 33 22
170 11 4 -65 56 11 9 13 5 23 336 -13 169 6 24 -65 26 48 171 19 25 -66 26 8 167 10 8 -64 31 13 173 44 21 -67 25 55
170 12 44 -64 5 10 9 13 15 24 335 -14 169 14 3 -63 37 39 171 14 19 -64 33 6 167 27 29 -62 45 28 173 23 11 -65 28 40
170 20 37 -62 20 54 9 13 24 26 335 -15 169 26 31 -61 54 56 171 17 2 -62 47 14 167 47 33 -61 5 33 173 14 2 -63 39 25
170 32 45 -60 42 14 9 13 34 27 334 -16 169 42 18 -60 17 33 171 25 8 -61 7 13 168 9 28 -59 30 31 173 12 57 -61 56 36
170 47 57 -59 8 16 9 13 44 29 333 -17 170 0 29 -58 44 41 171 37 4 -59 32 6 168 32 43 -57 59 39 173 17 33 -60 19 8
171 5 25 -57 38 18 9 13 54 30 333 -18 170 20 27 -57 15 41 171 51 50 -58 1 10 168 56 57 -56 32 24 173 26 20 -58 46 11
171 24 37 -56 11 50 9 14 4 31 332 -19 170 41 45 -55 50 2 172 8 45 -56 33 50 169 21 54 -55 8 18 173 38 16 -57 17 6
171 45 10 -54 48 26 9 14 14 32 331 -20 171 4 6 -54 27 22 172 27 21 -55 9 40 169 47 24 -53 46 59 173 52 38 -55 51 24
172 6 47 -53 27 44 9 14 24 33 330 -21 171 27 18 -53 7 19 172 47 17 -53 48 18 170 13 21 -52 28 9 174 8 56 -54 28 40
172 29 17 -52 9 27 9 14 34 34 329 -22 171 51 10 -51 49 37 173 8 19 -52 29 25 170 39 39 -51 11 33 174 26 49 -53 8 35
172 52 31 -50 53 21 9 14 44 35 328 -23 172 15 37 -50 34 3 173 30 15 -51 12 46 171 6 16 -49 56 57 174 45 59 -51 50 50
173 16 22 -49 39 12 9 14 54 36 327 -24 172 40 34 -49 20 23 173 52 57 -49 58 9 171 33 8 -48 44 12 175 6 14 -50 35 13
173 40 46 -48 26 51 9 15 4 37 326 -24 173 5 56 -48 8 29 174 16 19 -48 45 21 172 0 15 -47 33 7 175 27 26 -49 21 31
174 5 38 -47 16 8 9 15 14 38 325 -25 173 31 41 -46 58 10 174 40 16 -47 34 13 172 27 34 -46 23 33 175 49 26 -48 9 34
174 30 57 -46 6 56 9 15 24 39 324 -26 173 57 46 -45 49 19 175 4 44 -46 24 37 172 55 5 -45 15 24 176 12 9 -46 59 13
174 56 39 -44 59 5 9 15 34 39 323 -27 174 24 12 -44 41 49 175 29 41 -45 16 26 173 22 49 -44 8 33 176 35 30 -45 50 20
175 22 43 -43 52 32 9 15 44 40 322 -28 174 50 56 -43 35 35 175 55 4 -44 9 33 173 50 44 -43 2 54 176 59 27 -44 42 49
175 49 9 -42 47 9 9 15 54 41 321 -29 175 17 57 -42 30 29 176 20 52 -43 3 53 174 18 51 -41 58 22 177 23 56 -43 36 33
176 15 55 -41 42 52 9 16 4 41 320 -30 175 45 17 -41 26 29 176 47 3 -41 59 19 174 47 10 -40 54 52 177 48 56 -42 31 26
176 43 2 -40 39 36 9 16 14 42 319 -31 176 12 53 -40 23 29 177 13 38 -40 55 48 175 15 41 -39 52 21 178 14 25 -41 27 24
177 10 28 -39 37 18 9 16 24 42 317 -32 176 40 47 -39 21 24 177 40 35 -39 53 15 175 44 26 -38 50 44 178 40 22 -40 24 22
177 38 14 -38 35 53 9 16 34 43 316 -32 177 8 59 -38 20 13 178 7 54 -38 51 37 176 13 24 -37 49 58 179 6 46 -39 22 16
178 6 19 -37 35 18 9 16 44 43 315 -33 177 37 28 -37 19 51 178 35 36 -37 50 49 176 42 37 -36 49 59 179 33 37 -38 21 3
178 34 46 -36 35 31 9 16 54 44 314 -34 178 6 16 -36 20 15 179 3 39 -36 50 49 177 12 5 -35 50 46 -179 59 6 -37 20 40
179 3 33 -35 36 27 9 17 4 44 312 -35 178 35 23 -35 21 22 179 32 5 -35 51 35 177 41 48 -34 52 15 -179 31 23 -36 21 3
179 32 41 -34 38 5 9 17 13 44 311 -36 179 4 50 -34 23 11 -179 59 6 -34 53 2 178 11 49 -33 54 23 -179 3 14 -35 22 9
-179 57 49 -33 40 22 9 17 23 45 310 -37 179 34 37 -33 25 38 -179 29 54 -33 55 9 178 42 7 -32 57 9 -178 34 38 -34 23 56
-179 27 57 -32 43 16 9 17 33 45 308 -38 -179 55 15 -32 28 41 -179 0 17 -32 57 53 179 12 44 -32 0 30 -178 5 35 -33 26 22
-178 57 41 -31 46 45 9 17 43 45 307 -39 -179 24 45 -31 32 19 -178 30 16 -32 1 13 179 43 41 -31 4 24 -177 36 4 -32 29 24
-178 27 0 -30 50 46 9 17 53 45 306 -40 -178 53 51 -30 36 28 -177 59 49 -31 5 6 -179 45 1 -30 8 49 -177 6 5 -31 33 0
-177 55 54 -29 55 19 9 18 3 45 305 -40 -178 22 33 -29 41 9 -177 28 56 -30 9 31 -179 13 22 -29 13 45 -176 35 37 -30 37 9
-177 24 22 -29 0 21 9 18 13 45 303 -41 -177 50 50 -28 46 18 -176 57 35 -29 14 25 -178 41 18 -28 19 8 -176 4 39 -29 41 48
-176 52 22 -28 5 50 9 18 23 46 302 -42 -177 18 41 -27 51 55 -176 25 45 -28 19 48 -178 8 50 -27 24 59 -175 33 10 -28 46 56
-176 19 53 -27 11 46 9 18 33 46 301 -43 -176 46 3 -26 57 57 -175 53 25 -27 25 37 -177 35 57 -26 31 14 -175 1 8 -27 52 32
-175 46 54 -26 18 7 9 18 43 46 299 -44 -176 12 56 -26 4 24 -175 20 34 -26 31 51 -177 2 35 -25 37 53 -174 28 34 -26 58 33
-175 13 23 -25 24 51 9 18 53 45 298 -45 -175 39 18 -25 11 14 -174 47 10 -25 38 29 -176 28 45 -24 44 54 -173 55 24 -26 4 59
-174 39 19 -24 31 57 9 19 3 45 297 -46 -175 5 8 -24 18 26 -174 13 12 -24 45 29 -175 54 24 -23 52 17 -173 21 38 -25 11 48
-174 4 40 -23 39 24 9 19 13 45 295 -47 -174 30 24 -23 25 59 -173 38 38 -23 52 51 -175 19 30 -23 0 0 -172 47 14 -24 18 59
-173 29 24 -22 47 11 9 19 23 45 294 -48 -173 55 4 -22 33 51 -173 3 26 -23 0 32 -174 44 3 -22 8 2 -172 12 11 -23 26 30
-172 53 29 -21 55 17 9 19 33 45 293 -49 -173 19 6 -21 42 1 -172 27 34 -22 8 33 -174 7 59 -21 16 21 -171 36 25 -22 34 21
-172 16 53 -21 3 40 9 19 43 45 292 -50 -172 42 28 -20 50 29 -171 51 1 -21 16 52 -173 31 17 -20 24 58 -170 59 56 -21 42 30
-171 39 34 -20 12 20 9 19 53 44 290 -51 -172 5 8 -19 59 14 -171 13 43 -20 25 27 -172 53 55 -19 33 51 -170 22 41 -20 50 57
-171 1 30 -19 21 16 9 20 3 44 289 -52 -171 27 3 -19 8 13 -170 35 39 -19 34 19 -172 15 49 -18 42 58 -169 44 37 -19 59 40
-170 22 38 -18 30 26 9 20 13 44 288 -53 -170 48 12 -18 17 28 -169 56 46 -18 43 25 -171 36 59 -17 52 20 -169 5 42 -19 8 39
-169 42 54 -17 39 50 9 20 23 43 287 -54 -170 8 30 -17 26 56 -169 17 0 -17 52 46 -170 57 20 -17 1 55 -168 25 53 -18 17 52
-169 2 17 -16 49 28 9 20 33 43 286 -55 -169 27 55 -16 36 37 -168 36 20 -17 2 20 -170 16 51 -16 11 43 -167 45 6 -17 27 19
-168 20 42 -15 59 18 9 20 43 42 284 -56 -168 46 24 -15 46 30 -167 54 41 -16 12 6 -169 35 27 -15 21 42 -167 3 18 -16 36 58
-167 38 6 -15 9 19 9 20 53 42 283 -57 -168 3 54 -14 56 34 -167 12 0 -15 22 4 -168 53 6 -14 31 52 -166 20 26 -15 46 50
-166 54 25 -14 19 30 9 21 2 41 282 -58 -167 20 19 -14 6 48 -166 28 12 -14 32 12 -168 9 43 -13 42 12 -165 36 24 -14 56 53
-166 9 34 -13 29 52 9 21 12 41 281 -59 -166 35 36 -13 17 13 -165 43 13 -13 42 31 -167 25 14 -12 52 42 -164 51 9 -14 7 6
-165 23 30 -12 40 22 9 21 22 40 280 -60 -165 49 41 -12 27 46 -164 56 59 -12 52 59 -166 39 35 -12 3 20 -164 4 35 -13 17 29
-164 36 6 -11 51 1 9 21 32 40 279 -61 -165 2 27 -11 38 27 -164 9 24 -12 3 36 -165 52 41 -11 14 6 -163 16 36 -12 28 0
-163 47 16 -11 1 48 9 21 42 39 278 -62 -164 13 50 -10 49 16 -163 20 21 -11 14 20 -165 4 26 -10 24 59 -162 27 6 -11 38 40
-162 56 53 -10 12 42 9 21 52 38 277 -63 -163 23 42 -10 0 12 -162 29 43 -10 25 11 -164 14 44 - 9 35 59 -161 35 57 -10 49 27
-162 4 51 - 9 23 41 9 22 2 37 277 -64 -162 31 56 - 9 11 14 -161 37 24 - 9 36 9 -163 23 29 - 8 47 4 -160 43 2 -10 0 21
-161 11 1 - 8 34 47 9 22 12 36 276 -65 -161 38 25 - 8 22 21 -160 43 14 - 8 47 13 -162 30 32 - 7 58 15 -159 48 10 - 9 11 21
-160 15 12 - 7 45 57 9 22 22 36 275 -67 -160 42 58 - 7 33 33 -159 47 3 - 7 58 21 -161 35 44 - 7 9 30 -158 51 11 - 8 22 26
-159 17 15 - 6 57 12 9 22 32 35 274 -68 -159 45 25 - 6 44 49 -158 48 39 - 7 9 34 -160 38 56 - 6 20 49 -157 51 53 - 7 33 35
-158 16 55 - 6 8 30 9 22 42 34 274 -69 -158 45 34 - 5 56 9 -157 47 49 - 6 20 51 -159 39 56 - 5 32 11 -156 50 1 - 6 44 49
-157 13 58 - 5 19 50 9 22 52 33 273 -70 -157 43 10 - 5 7 31 -156 44 18 - 5 32 10 -158 38 30 - 4 43 36 -155 45 17 - 5 56 5
-156 8 6 - 4 31 13 9 23 2 32 272 -72 -156 37 55 - 4 18 55 -155 37 46 - 4 43 32 -157 34 24 - 3 55 2 -154 37 20 - 5 7 24
-154 58 58 - 3 42 37 9 23 12 30 272 -73 -155 29 31 - 3 30 20 -154 27 51 - 3 54 55 -156 27 18 - 3 6 29 -153 25 47 - 4 18 45
-153 46 7 - 2 54 2 9 23 22 29 271 -74 -154 17 32 - 2 41 46 -153 14 6 - 3 6 18 -155 16 50 - 2 17 57 -152 10 5 - 3 30 6
-152 29 2 - 2 5 27 9 23 32 28 271 -76 -153 1 27 - 1 53 11 -151 55 55 - 2 17 42 -154 2 34 - 1 29 24 -150 49 35 - 2 41 27
-151 7 1 - 1 16 50 9 23 42 26 270 -77 -151 40 40 - 1 4 35 -150 32 36 - 1 29 4 -152 43 55 - 0 40 50 -149 23 27 - 1 52 47
-149 39 13 - 0 28 11 9 23 52 25 270 -79 -150 14 21 - 0 15 57 -149 3 12 - 0 40 24 -151 20 11 0 7 47 -147 50 33 - 1 4 5
-148 4 27 0 20 31 9 24 2 23 269 -81 -148 41 26 0 32 44 -147 26 26 0 8 19 -149 50 27 0 56 27 -146 9 20 - 0 15 19
-146 21 6 1 9 18 9 24 12 22 269 -83 -147 0 26 1 21 30 -145 40 29 0 57 7 -148 13 30 1 45 11 -144 17 31 0 33 32
-144 26 46 1 58 11 9 24 22 20 269 -85 -145 9 15 2 10 21 -143 42 38 1 46 2 -146 27 35 2 34 1 -142 11 33 1 22 30
-142 17 42 2 47 13 9 24 32 17 269 -86 -143 4 37 2 59 21 -141 28 32 2 35 6 -144 30 10 3 22 58 -139 45 15 2 11 39
-139 47 18 3 36 27 9 24 42 15 269 -88 -140 41 1 3 48 33 -138 50 4 3 24 23 -142 17 12 4 12 5 -136 45 46 3 1 5
-136 41 36 4 26 1 9 24 51 12 269 -86 -137 47 34 4 38 1 -135 28 40 4 14 4 -139 41 24 5 1 27 -132 34 40 3 51 8
-132 16 32 5 16 15 9 25 1 7 269 -82 -133 55 12 5 28 1 -130 7 15 5 4 44 -136 26 58 5 51 10 ... .. .. .. .. ..
... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. -131 39 13 6 41 42 ... .. .. .. .. ..
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