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Updated: 2005 JAN 31, 06:41 UT
Event Rank : 42
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Feb 24 UT (before dawn on the 25th), the 32 km diameter asteroid (391) Ingeborg will occult a 9.2 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a path across New Zealand, Australia, China, Russia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.3 mag to 14.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
113 19 3 - 1 0 0 15 2 48 64 247 -64 113 29 23 113 8 43 114 1 44 112 36 38
113 42 41 - 2 0 0 15 2 38 64 249 -64 113 53 3 113 32 20 114 25 32 113 0 7
114 6 58 - 3 0 0 15 2 27 64 251 -64 114 17 23 113 56 34 114 50 0 113 24 14
114 31 56 - 4 0 0 15 2 16 64 253 -63 114 42 24 114 21 29 115 15 10 113 49 0
114 57 36 - 5 0 0 15 2 6 64 255 -63 115 8 7 114 47 6 115 41 3 114 14 27
115 23 58 - 6 0 0 15 1 55 63 258 -63 115 34 33 115 13 25 116 7 40 114 40 35
115 51 5 - 7 0 0 15 1 44 63 260 -63 116 1 44 115 40 28 116 35 3 115 7 27
116 18 59 - 8 0 0 15 1 33 63 262 -62 116 29 42 116 8 18 117 3 15 115 35 4
116 47 41 - 9 0 0 15 1 22 63 264 -62 116 58 29 116 36 55 117 32 16 116 3 27
117 17 14 -10 0 0 15 1 11 62 265 -62 117 28 6 117 6 23 118 2 9 116 32 40
117 47 39 -11 0 0 15 1 1 62 267 -61 117 58 36 117 36 43 118 32 56 117 2 43
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
118 0 0 -11 23 53 15 0 56 62 268 -61 -11 2 42 -11 44 55 - 9 55 45 -12 49 43
119 0 0 -13 15 57 15 0 36 61 271 -61 -12 55 35 -13 36 11 -11 51 18 -14 38 34
120 0 0 -15 1 57 15 0 17 60 274 -60 -14 42 20 -15 21 27 -13 40 26 -16 21 39
121 0 0 -16 42 20 14 59 58 59 276 -59 -16 23 24 -17 1 11 -15 23 40 -17 59 24
122 0 0 -18 17 32 14 59 41 58 279 -58 -17 59 12 -18 35 47 -17 1 27 -19 32 10
123 0 0 -19 47 53 14 59 25 57 280 -57 -19 30 7 -20 5 35 -18 34 10 -21 0 17
124 0 0 -21 13 44 14 59 9 56 282 -56 -20 56 29 -21 30 54 -20 2 11 -22 24 4
125 0 0 -22 35 20 14 58 54 54 283 -56 -22 18 34 -22 52 3 -21 25 48 -23 43 46
126 0 0 -23 52 59 14 58 40 53 284 -55 -23 36 39 -24 9 15 -22 45 19 -24 59 38
127 0 0 -25 6 54 14 58 27 52 285 -54 -24 50 59 -25 22 46 -24 0 58 -26 11 54
128 0 0 -26 17 19 14 58 14 51 286 -53 -26 1 47 -26 32 48 -25 12 59 -27 20 47
129 0 0 -27 24 26 14 58 2 50 286 -52 -27 9 16 -27 39 33 -26 21 36 -28 26 27
130 0 0 -28 28 25 14 57 50 49 287 -51 -28 13 35 -28 43 13 -27 27 0 -29 29 5
131 0 0 -29 29 28 14 57 39 48 287 -51 -29 14 56 -29 43 56 -28 29 22 -30 28 50
132 0 0 -30 27 42 14 57 29 47 287 -50 -30 13 29 -30 41 53 -29 28 51 -31 25 53
133 0 0 -31 23 18 14 57 19 46 288 -49 -31 9 22 -31 37 12 -30 25 37 -32 20 21
134 0 0 -32 16 23 14 57 9 44 288 -48 -32 2 43 -32 30 2 -31 19 48 -33 12 22
135 0 0 -33 7 5 14 57 0 43 288 -48 -32 53 39 -33 20 29 -32 11 32 -34 2 4
136 0 0 -33 55 30 14 56 52 42 288 -47 -33 42 19 -34 8 40 -33 0 56 -34 49 32
137 0 0 -34 41 46 14 56 43 41 288 -46 -34 28 48 -34 54 43 -33 48 8 -35 34 54
138 0 0 -35 25 58 14 56 35 40 287 -45 -35 13 12 -35 38 42 -34 33 12 -36 18 14
139 0 0 -36 8 12 14 56 28 39 287 -45 -35 55 38 -36 20 44 -35 16 16 -36 59 40
140 0 0 -36 48 33 14 56 20 39 287 -44 -36 36 11 -37 0 54 -35 57 24 -37 39 15
141 0 0 -37 27 6 14 56 13 38 287 -43 -37 14 54 -37 39 16 -36 36 42 -38 17 4
142 0 0 -38 3 56 14 56 7 37 286 -43 -37 51 55 -38 15 56 -37 14 14 -38 53 13
143 0 0 -38 39 7 14 56 0 36 286 -42 -38 27 15 -38 50 57 -37 50 5 -39 27 45
144 0 0 -39 12 43 14 55 54 35 286 -41 -39 1 0 -39 24 24 -38 24 20 -40 0 43
145 0 0 -39 44 48 14 55 48 34 285 -41 -39 33 14 -39 56 20 -38 57 1 -40 32 13
146 0 0 -40 15 25 14 55 43 33 285 -40 -40 4 0 -40 26 50 -39 28 12 -41 2 17
147 0 0 -40 44 38 14 55 37 32 284 -40 -40 33 21 -40 55 55 -39 57 58 -41 30 58
148 0 0 -41 12 30 14 55 32 32 284 -39 -41 1 20 -41 23 39 -40 26 21 -41 58 19
149 0 0 -41 39 4 14 55 27 31 283 -38 -41 28 1 -41 50 6 -40 53 24 -42 24 24
150 0 0 -42 4 22 14 55 22 30 283 -38 -41 53 25 -42 15 17 -41 19 10 -42 49 15
151 0 0 -42 28 27 14 55 18 29 282 -37 -42 17 37 -42 39 16 -41 43 41 -43 12 55
152 0 0 -42 51 22 14 55 13 28 282 -37 -42 40 38 -43 2 5 -42 7 1 -43 35 25
153 0 0 -43 13 8 14 55 9 28 281 -36 -43 2 30 -43 23 46 -42 29 11 -43 56 48
154 0 0 -43 33 48 14 55 5 27 281 -36 -43 23 15 -43 44 20 -42 50 13 -44 17 6
155 0 0 -43 53 24 14 55 1 26 280 -35 -43 42 56 -44 3 51 -43 10 10 -44 36 21
156 0 0 -44 11 58 14 54 57 25 280 -35 -44 1 34 -44 22 20 -43 29 4 -44 54 35
157 0 0 -44 29 30 14 54 54 25 279 -34 -44 19 12 -44 39 48 -43 46 55 -45 11 50
158 0 0 -44 46 4 14 54 50 24 278 -34 -44 35 50 -44 56 18 -44 3 46 -45 28 6
159 0 0 -45 1 40 14 54 47 23 278 -33 -44 51 30 -45 11 50 -44 19 39 -45 43 26
160 0 0 -45 16 20 14 54 44 22 277 -33 -45 6 13 -45 26 26 -44 34 34 -45 57 51
161 0 0 -45 30 5 14 54 41 22 276 -32 -45 20 2 -45 40 8 -44 48 34 -46 11 21
162 0 0 -45 42 56 14 54 38 21 276 -32 -45 32 56 -45 52 56 -45 1 39 -46 23 59
163 0 0 -45 54 55 14 54 35 20 275 -31 -45 44 58 -46 4 51 -45 13 50 -46 35 46
164 0 0 -46 6 2 14 54 32 19 274 -31 -45 56 8 -46 15 56 -45 25 9 -46 46 42
165 0 0 -46 16 19 14 54 30 19 274 -30 -46 6 27 -46 26 10 -45 35 36 -46 56 48
166 0 0 -46 25 45 14 54 27 18 273 -30 -46 15 56 -46 35 34 -45 45 12 -47 6 5
167 0 0 -46 34 23 14 54 25 17 272 -29 -46 24 36 -46 44 9 -45 53 59 -47 14 34
168 0 0 -46 42 12 14 54 22 17 272 -29 -46 32 27 -46 51 57 -46 1 56 -47 22 15
169 0 0 -46 49 14 14 54 20 16 271 -28 -46 39 31 -46 58 57 -46 9 5 -47 29 10
170 0 0 -46 55 29 14 54 18 15 270 -28 -46 45 47 -47 5 10 -46 15 25 -47 35 18
171 0 0 -47 0 57 14 54 16 15 270 -27 -46 51 16 -47 10 37 -46 20 59 -47 40 41
172 0 0 -47 5 38 14 54 14 14 269 -27 -46 55 59 -47 15 17 -46 25 45 -47 45 18
173 0 0 -47 9 34 14 54 12 13 268 -26 -46 59 56 -47 19 12 -46 29 45 -47 49 10
174 0 0 -47 12 45 14 54 11 13 268 -26 -47 3 7 -47 22 22 -46 32 58 -47 52 18
175 0 0 -47 15 10 14 54 9 12 267 -25 -47 5 32 -47 24 46 -46 35 25 -47 54 41
176 0 0 -47 16 49 14 54 7 11 266 -25 -47 7 12 -47 26 26 -46 37 6 -47 56 19
177 0 0 -47 17 44 14 54 6 11 265 -25 -47 8 7 -47 27 20 -46 38 1 -47 57 13
178 0 0 -47 17 54 14 54 5 10 265 -24 -47 8 16 -47 27 30 -46 38 10 -47 57 23
179 0 0 -47 17 18 14 54 3 9 264 -24 -47 7 41 -47 26 55 -46 37 34 -47 56 49
180 0 0 -47 15 57 14 54 2 9 263 -23 -47 6 19 -47 25 35 -46 36 11 -47 55 30
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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