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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Dec 10 UT, the 123 km diameter asteroid (134) Sophrosyne will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 13.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
127 46 11 -57 0 48 12 9 26 26 287 -1 125 40 10 -56 35 8 130 1 6 -57 25 11 124 21 21 -56 17 38 131 35 34 -57 40 27
128 21 58 -56 24 46 12 9 28 26 286 -1 126 16 59 -55 59 39 130 35 41 -56 48 37 124 58 48 -55 42 29 132 9 19 -57 3 31
128 58 21 -55 48 51 12 9 31 26 285 -2 126 54 17 -55 24 16 131 11 4 -56 12 9 125 36 39 -55 7 26 132 43 57 -56 26 41
129 35 24 -55 13 2 12 9 34 25 285 -3 127 32 8 -54 48 58 131 47 14 -55 35 47 126 14 58 -54 32 29 133 19 30 -55 49 56
130 13 7 -54 37 17 12 9 36 25 284 -3 128 10 31 -54 13 45 132 24 13 -54 59 28 126 53 46 -53 57 36 133 56 0 -55 13 14
130 51 33 -54 1 35 12 9 39 25 283 -4 128 49 29 -53 38 36 133 2 5 -54 23 12 127 33 4 -53 22 48 134 33 28 -54 36 34
131 30 43 -53 25 55 12 9 41 25 282 -5 129 29 4 -53 3 29 133 40 50 -53 46 57 128 12 55 -52 48 1 135 11 56 -53 59 56
132 10 41 -52 50 16 12 9 44 24 281 -5 130 9 19 -52 28 23 134 20 31 -53 10 43 128 53 22 -52 13 17 135 51 29 -53 23 17
132 51 28 -52 14 37 12 9 47 24 280 -6 130 50 16 -51 53 18 135 1 12 -52 34 28 129 34 26 -51 38 33 136 32 8 -52 46 36
133 33 9 -51 38 57 12 9 49 24 280 -7 131 31 58 -51 18 13 135 42 56 -51 58 10 130 16 10 -51 3 49 137 13 58 -52 9 51
134 15 47 -51 3 14 12 9 52 23 279 -8 132 14 29 -50 43 5 136 25 48 -51 21 48 130 58 38 -50 29 4 137 57 5 -51 33 1
134 59 25 -50 27 27 12 9 54 23 278 -8 132 57 51 -50 7 55 137 9 51 -50 45 21 131 41 52 -49 54 17 138 41 32 -50 56 5
135 44 9 -49 51 34 12 9 57 23 277 -9 133 42 9 -49 32 41 137 55 13 -50 8 46 132 25 57 -49 19 25 139 27 27 -50 18 59
136 30 4 -49 15 34 12 10 0 22 276 -10 134 27 27 -48 57 20 138 41 59 -49 32 1 133 10 57 -48 44 29 140 14 58 -49 41 42
137 17 16 -48 39 25 12 10 2 22 275 -11 135 13 51 -48 21 53 139 30 16 -48 55 6 133 56 55 -48 9 27 141 4 12 -49 4 11
138 5 52 -48 3 5 12 10 5 21 274 -12 136 1 26 -47 46 17 140 20 15 -48 17 55 134 43 58 -47 34 17 141 55 22 -48 26 23
138 56 1 -47 26 32 12 10 7 21 274 -12 136 50 19 -47 10 29 141 12 4 -47 40 28 135 32 12 -46 58 57 142 48 39 -47 48 15
139 47 51 -46 49 42 12 10 10 20 273 -13 137 40 37 -46 34 29 142 5 58 -47 2 41 136 21 42 -46 23 26 143 44 20 -47 9 42
140 41 34 -46 12 34 12 10 13 20 272 -14 138 32 30 -45 58 14 143 2 11 -46 24 29 137 12 37 -45 47 42 144 42 44 -46 30 40
141 37 25 -45 35 3 12 10 15 19 271 -15 139 26 9 -45 21 40 144 1 2 -45 45 47 138 5 6 -45 11 41 145 44 14 -45 51 3
142 35 39 -44 57 5 12 10 18 18 270 -16 140 21 44 -44 44 46 145 2 55 -45 6 31 138 59 19 -44 35 23 146 49 24 -45 10 41
143 36 37 -44 18 35 12 10 21 18 269 -17 141 19 32 -44 7 26 146 8 20 -44 26 32 139 55 29 -43 58 42 147 58 53 -44 29 27
144 40 45 -43 39 27 12 10 23 17 268 -18 142 19 51 -43 29 36 147 17 57 -43 45 41 140 53 50 -43 21 36 149 13 38 -43 47 5
145 48 36 -42 59 32 12 10 26 16 267 -19 143 23 2 -42 51 11 148 32 39 -43 3 44 141 54 42 -42 43 59 150 35 0 -43 3 18
147 0 54 -42 18 41 12 10 28 15 266 -20 144 29 36 -42 12 5 149 53 43 -42 20 24 142 58 27 -42 5 47 152 5 1 -42 17 35
148 18 38 -41 36 38 12 10 31 14 265 -21 145 40 9 -41 32 6 151 23 2 -41 35 14 144 5 33 -41 26 52 153 47 0 -41 29 9
149 43 16 -40 53 3 12 10 34 13 264 -22 146 55 31 -40 51 5 153 3 40 -40 47 30 145 16 39 -40 47 6 155 47 18 -40 36 33
151 16 59 -40 7 26 12 10 36 12 263 -23 148 16 52 -40 8 44 155 1 14 -39 55 54 146 32 33 -40 6 16 158 20 56 -39 36 15
153 3 27 -39 18 53 12 10 39 10 262 -24 149 45 53 -39 24 39 157 28 27 -38 57 27 147 54 26 -39 24 6 162 39 44 -38 11 33
155 9 45 -38 25 47 12 10 41 8 260 -26 151 25 16 -38 38 13 161 14 9 -37 40 49 149 23 59 -38 40 11 ... .. .. .. .. ..
157 53 40 -37 23 59 12 10 44 6 258 -28 153 19 43 -37 48 19 ... .. .. .. .. .. 151 3 53 -37 53 55 ... .. .. .. .. ..
163 10 1 -35 46 52 12 10 47 1 255 -30 155 39 5 -36 52 39 ... .. .. .. .. .. 152 58 50 -37 4 11 ... .. .. .. .. ..
... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 158 53 26 -35 44 15 ... .. .. .. .. .. 155 18 35 -36 8 43 ... .. .. .. .. ..
... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 158 32 47 -35 0 38 ... .. .. .. .. ..
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