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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Nov 02 UT, the 116 km diameter asteroid (909) Ulla will occult a 10.9 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a path across Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 23.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
... .. .. -64 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 115 34 1
... .. .. -63 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. 114 38 31 ... .. .. 120 41 59
115 10 22 -62 0 0 15 36 49 3 75 -13 ... .. .. 119 49 12 ... .. .. 124 24 55
119 58 10 -61 0 0 15 36 42 6 71 -14 115 31 15 123 31 17 ... .. .. 127 21 59
123 28 6 -60 0 0 15 36 33 8 68 -15 120 0 42 126 26 54 114 14 6 129 48 54
126 15 32 -59 0 0 15 36 23 10 65 -16 123 20 17 128 52 21 118 53 13 131 53 59
128 34 55 -58 0 0 15 36 13 11 64 -17 126 0 33 130 56 5 122 15 26 133 42 19
130 33 52 -57 0 0 15 36 2 12 62 -18 128 14 30 132 43 11 124 56 24 135 17 16
132 17 5 -56 0 0 15 35 50 14 61 -19 130 9 8 134 17 2 127 10 20 136 41 12
133 47 40 -55 0 0 15 35 38 15 60 -19 131 48 47 135 40 0 129 4 39 137 55 53
135 7 52 -54 0 0 15 35 26 16 59 -20 133 16 23 136 53 49 130 43 50 139 2 40
136 19 17 -53 0 0 15 35 13 17 58 -21 134 34 0 137 59 49 132 10 55 140 2 38
137 23 12 -52 0 0 15 34 59 18 57 -22 135 43 10 138 59 4 133 27 59 140 56 36
138 20 34 -51 0 0 15 34 46 19 57 -23 136 45 6 139 52 23 134 36 37 141 45 16
139 12 13 -50 0 0 15 34 31 20 56 -23 137 40 42 140 40 28 135 38 0 142 29 13
139 58 47 -49 0 0 15 34 17 21 56 -24 138 30 45 141 23 51 136 33 5 143 8 55
140 40 47 -48 0 0 15 34 2 22 56 -25 139 15 51 142 3 1 137 22 36 143 44 47
141 18 41 -47 0 0 15 33 46 23 56 -26 139 56 30 142 38 23 138 7 11 144 17 9
141 52 52 -46 0 0 15 33 31 24 56 -27 140 33 9 143 10 16 138 47 20 144 46 19
142 23 38 -45 0 0 15 33 15 25 56 -27 141 6 10 143 38 57 139 23 29 145 12 33
142 51 17 -44 0 0 15 32 58 26 56 -28 141 35 50 144 4 43 139 55 58 145 36 4
143 16 2 -43 0 0 15 32 41 26 56 -29 142 2 25 144 27 45 140 25 7 145 57 3
143 38 7 -42 0 0 15 32 24 27 56 -30 142 26 10 144 48 16 140 51 11 146 15 41
143 57 43 -41 0 0 15 32 7 28 56 -31 142 47 17 145 6 26 141 14 23 146 32 7
144 14 58 -40 0 0 15 31 49 28 56 -32 143 5 56 145 22 22 141 34 56 146 46 29
144 30 1 -39 0 0 15 31 31 29 57 -33 143 22 15 145 36 14 141 53 0 146 58 53
144 43 1 -38 0 0 15 31 12 30 57 -33 143 36 24 145 48 7 142 8 44 147 9 26
144 54 2 -37 0 0 15 30 54 30 57 -34 143 48 29 145 58 7 142 22 15 147 18 14
145 3 11 -36 0 0 15 30 35 31 58 -35 143 58 36 146 6 21 142 33 41 147 25 20
145 10 33 -35 0 0 15 30 15 31 58 -36 144 6 50 146 12 53 142 43 7 147 30 50
145 16 12 -34 0 0 15 29 56 32 59 -37 144 13 17 146 17 46 142 50 38 147 34 47
145 20 11 -33 0 0 15 29 36 33 59 -38 144 18 1 146 21 4 142 56 20 147 37 14
145 22 36 -32 0 0 15 29 16 33 60 -39 144 21 4 146 22 50 143 0 16 147 38 14
145 23 27 -31 0 0 15 28 55 33 61 -40 144 22 30 146 23 8 143 2 29 147 37 50
145 22 48 -30 0 0 15 28 35 34 61 -41 144 22 22 146 21 58 143 3 3 147 36 3
145 20 40 -29 0 0 15 28 14 34 62 -41 144 20 42 146 19 24 143 1 59 147 32 55
145 17 6 -28 0 0 15 27 52 35 63 -42 144 17 32 146 15 26 142 59 20 147 28 29
145 12 6 -27 0 0 15 27 31 35 63 -43 144 12 52 146 10 6 142 55 7 147 22 44
145 5 41 -26 0 0 15 27 9 35 64 -44 144 6 44 146 3 25 142 49 21 147 15 41
144 57 53 -25 0 0 15 26 47 35 65 -45 143 59 10 145 55 23 142 42 4 147 7 22
144 48 41 -24 0 0 15 26 25 36 66 -46 143 50 8 145 46 1 142 33 15 146 57 46
144 38 5 -23 0 0 15 26 3 36 67 -47 143 39 39 145 35 18 142 22 54 146 46 54
144 26 6 -22 0 0 15 25 40 36 67 -48 143 27 43 145 23 15 142 11 1 146 34 45
144 12 42 -21 0 0 15 25 17 36 68 -49 143 14 19 145 9 50 141 57 35 146 21 18
143 57 53 -20 0 0 15 24 54 36 69 -50 142 59 26 144 55 4 141 42 36 146 6 33
143 41 37 -19 0 0 15 24 31 36 70 -51 142 43 2 144 38 53 141 26 1 145 50 29
143 23 52 -18 0 0 15 24 7 36 71 -52 142 25 7 144 21 18 141 7 49 145 33 4
143 4 37 -17 0 0 15 23 44 36 72 -53 142 5 37 144 2 16 140 47 56 145 14 16
142 43 49 -16 0 0 15 23 20 36 73 -55 141 44 30 143 41 45 140 26 22 144 54 4
142 21 26 -15 0 0 15 22 56 36 74 -56 141 21 43 143 19 43 140 3 1 144 32 25
141 57 23 -14 0 0 15 22 32 36 75 -57 140 57 12 142 56 5 139 37 49 144 9 16
141 31 38 -13 0 0 15 22 7 35 75 -58 140 30 54 142 30 50 139 10 42 143 44 35
141 4 5 -12 0 0 15 21 43 35 76 -59 140 2 42 142 3 51 138 41 35 143 18 16
140 34 39 -11 0 0 15 21 18 35 77 -60 139 32 32 141 35 6 138 10 20 142 50 16
140 3 15 -10 0 0 15 20 53 34 78 -61 139 0 17 141 4 28 137 36 51 142 20 31
139 29 45 - 9 0 0 15 20 28 34 79 -62 138 25 49 140 31 51 137 0 58 141 48 54
138 54 2 - 8 0 0 15 20 3 33 80 -64 137 48 59 139 57 8 136 22 30 141 15 20
138 15 57 - 7 0 0 15 19 38 33 81 -65 137 9 38 139 20 11 135 41 17 140 39 41
137 35 18 - 6 0 0 15 19 13 32 81 -66 136 27 32 138 40 50 134 57 3 140 1 48
136 51 54 - 5 0 0 15 18 47 32 82 -67 135 42 28 137 58 55 134 9 31 139 21 33
136 5 29 - 4 0 0 15 18 21 31 83 -69 134 54 8 137 14 11 133 18 20 138 38 44
135 15 46 - 3 0 0 15 17 56 30 84 -70 134 2 12 136 26 25 132 23 4 137 53 7
134 22 23 - 2 0 0 15 17 30 29 84 -71 133 6 14 135 35 16 131 23 11 137 4 28
133 24 53 - 1 0 0 15 17 3 28 85 -73 132 5 43 134 40 24 130 18 0 136 12 28
132 22 45 0 0 0 15 16 37 27 86 -74 130 59 59 133 41 20 129 6 37 135 16 45
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
131 0 0 1 12 54 15 16 5 26 86 -76 - 0 0 1 2 23 0 - 1 38 3 3 49 10
130 0 0 2 1 12 15 15 43 25 87 -77 0 50 29 3 9 22 - 0 44 20 4 33 18
129 0 0 2 46 2 15 15 23 24 87 -78 1 37 15 3 52 27 0 5 17 5 14 24
128 0 0 3 27 38 15 15 5 23 87 -78 2 20 35 4 32 29 0 51 7 5 52 38
127 0 0 4 6 12 15 14 47 22 87 -79 3 0 42 5 9 39 1 33 28 6 28 10
126 0 0 4 41 56 15 14 31 21 87 -80 3 37 49 5 44 6 2 12 36 7 1 10
125 0 0 5 14 59 15 14 16 19 88 -80 4 12 7 6 16 1 2 48 42 7 31 44
124 0 0 5 45 30 15 14 1 18 88 -80 4 43 46 6 45 29 3 21 57 8 0 0
123 0 0 6 13 36 15 13 48 17 88 -80 5 12 54 7 12 39 3 52 32 8 26 4
122 0 0 6 39 24 15 13 36 16 88 -80 5 39 37 7 37 36 4 20 34 8 50 2
121 0 0 7 3 0 15 13 25 15 88 -80 6 4 3 8 0 26 4 46 11 9 11 57
120 0 0 7 24 29 15 13 14 14 88 -79 6 26 18 8 21 14 5 9 29 9 31 55
119 0 0 7 43 56 15 13 5 13 88 -79 6 46 26 8 40 3 5 30 34 9 50 0
118 0 0 8 1 25 15 12 56 12 88 -78 7 4 31 8 56 58 5 49 31 10 6 15
117 0 0 8 16 59 15 12 48 11 88 -78 7 20 38 9 12 2 6 6 24 10 20 43
116 0 0 8 30 43 15 12 40 10 87 -77 7 34 51 9 25 18 6 21 18 10 33 27
115 0 0 8 42 38 15 12 34 9 87 -76 7 47 12 9 36 49 6 34 16 10 44 29
114 0 0 8 52 48 15 12 28 8 87 -75 7 57 45 9 46 37 6 45 20 10 53 52
113 0 0 9 1 14 15 12 23 7 87 -74 8 6 31 9 54 45 6 54 34 11 1 38
112 0 0 9 7 59 15 12 18 6 87 -73 8 13 33 10 1 14 7 2 0 11 7 48
111 0 0 9 13 4 15 12 15 5 87 -73 8 18 53 10 6 6 7 7 40 11 12 24
110 0 0 9 16 31 15 12 11 4 87 -72 8 22 32 10 9 22 7 11 35 11 15 28
109 0 0 9 18 21 15 12 9 3 86 -71 8 24 31 10 11 4 7 13 48 11 16 59
108 0 0 9 18 36 15 12 7 2 86 -70 8 24 52 10 11 12 7 14 18 11 17 0
107 0 0 9 17 15 15 12 6 1 86 -69 8 23 36 10 9 47 7 13 8 11 15 30
106 0 0 9 14 19 15 12 5 0 86 -68 8 20 42 10 6 49 7 10 18 11 12 30
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