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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Oct 14 UT, the 184 km diameter asteroid (154) Bertha will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
111 52 16 - 75 30 44 12 50 8 55 315 -1 108 28 4 - 75 3 32 115 30 47 - 75 55 18 106 9 42 - 74 42 29 118 17 2 - 76 11 8
113 20 4 - 74 17 52 12 50 15 55 311 -2 110 8 38 - 73 52 9 116 43 24 - 74 41 5 107 58 3 - 73 32 15 119 17 10 - 74 56 6
114 38 20 - 73 5 13 12 50 22 56 308 -3 111 38 10 - 72 40 50 117 48 31 - 73 27 15 109 34 37 - 72 21 56 120 11 38 - 73 41 31
115 49 3 - 71 52 48 12 50 29 56 306 -4 112 58 53 - 71 29 36 118 47 46 - 72 13 46 111 1 39 - 71 11 38 121 1 44 - 72 27 21
116 53 43 - 70 40 36 12 50 35 57 303 -5 114 12 27 - 70 18 30 119 42 23 - 71 0 36 112 20 56 - 70 1 22 121 48 22 - 71 13 34
117 53 28 - 69 28 37 12 50 42 57 300 -6 115 20 10 - 69 7 30 120 33 14 - 69 47 42 113 33 48 - 68 51 9 122 32 14 - 70 0 6
118 49 10 - 68 16 48 12 50 49 57 297 -7 116 23 1 - 67 56 37 121 21 2 - 68 35 4 114 41 20 - 67 40 58 123 13 52 - 68 46 56
119 41 32 - 67 5 9 12 50 56 57 294 -8 117 21 49 - 66 45 49 122 6 19 - 67 22 38 115 44 23 - 66 30 50 123 53 40 - 67 34 0
120 31 6 - 65 53 38 12 51 3 58 292 -9 118 17 13 - 65 35 6 122 49 31 - 66 10 23 116 43 39 - 65 20 43 124 31 57 - 66 21 16
121 18 19 - 64 42 12 12 51 10 58 289 -10 119 9 44 - 64 24 25 123 31 0 - 64 58 15 117 39 43 - 64 10 37 125 9 1 - 65 8 41
122 3 33 - 63 30 49 12 51 17 58 286 -12 119 59 48 - 63 13 46 124 11 1 - 63 46 13 118 33 1 - 63 0 30 125 45 4 - 63 56 14
122 47 7 - 62 19 28 12 51 23 58 284 -13 120 47 47 - 62 3 6 124 49 50 - 62 34 15 119 23 59 - 61 50 21 126 20 16 - 62 43 50
123 29 16 - 61 8 7 12 51 30 58 281 -14 121 33 59 - 60 52 23 125 27 39 - 61 22 17 120 12 55 - 60 40 9 126 54 48 - 61 31 29
124 10 13 - 59 56 43 12 51 37 57 278 -15 122 18 39 - 59 41 37 126 4 38 - 60 10 18 121 0 7 - 59 29 50 127 28 46 - 60 19 6
124 50 9 - 58 45 14 12 51 44 57 276 -16 123 2 1 - 58 30 44 126 40 56 - 58 58 15 121 45 50 - 58 19 25 128 2 19 - 59 6 40
125 29 15 - 57 33 38 12 51 51 57 273 -17 123 44 17 - 57 19 42 127 16 41 - 57 46 6 122 30 16 - 57 8 50 128 35 33 - 57 54 8
126 7 39 - 56 21 52 12 51 58 57 271 -18 124 25 37 - 56 8 30 127 51 59 - 56 33 48 123 13 36 - 55 58 3 129 8 32 - 56 41 28
126 45 29 - 55 9 53 12 52 5 56 269 -20 125 6 10 - 54 57 5 128 26 58 - 55 21 17 123 56 1 - 54 47 3 129 41 22 - 55 28 36
127 22 52 - 53 57 40 12 52 11 56 266 -21 125 46 4 - 53 45 25 129 1 43 - 54 8 33 124 37 39 - 53 35 47 130 14 8 - 54 15 30
127 59 55 - 52 45 9 12 52 18 55 264 -22 126 25 28 - 52 33 26 129 36 19 - 52 55 31 125 18 39 - 52 24 12 130 46 55 - 53 2 6
128 36 44 - 51 32 18 12 52 25 55 262 -23 127 4 26 - 51 21 7 130 10 51 - 51 42 8 125 59 8 - 51 12 17 131 19 46 - 51 48 22
129 13 24 - 50 19 3 12 52 32 54 260 -24 127 43 7 - 50 8 24 130 45 25 - 50 28 23 126 39 13 - 49 59 57 131 52 45 - 50 34 15
129 50 0 - 49 5 22 12 52 39 54 258 -26 128 21 36 - 48 55 14 131 20 5 - 49 14 10 127 19 0 - 48 47 11 132 25 58 - 49 19 40
130 26 39 - 47 51 10 12 52 46 53 256 -27 129 0 0 - 47 41 35 131 54 55 - 47 59 27 127 58 36 - 47 33 55 132 59 28 - 48 4 35
131 3 25 - 46 36 25 12 52 53 52 254 -28 129 38 22 - 46 27 22 132 30 0 - 46 44 11 128 38 6 - 46 20 6 133 33 19 - 46 48 56
131 40 23 - 45 21 3 12 53 0 51 252 -29 130 16 50 - 45 12 33 133 5 25 - 45 28 16 129 17 37 - 45 5 40 134 7 36 - 45 32 38
132 17 38 - 44 4 59 12 53 6 51 250 -31 130 55 29 - 43 57 2 133 41 15 - 44 11 39 129 57 14 - 43 50 33 134 42 22 - 44 15 37
132 55 17 - 42 48 9 12 53 13 50 249 -32 131 34 24 - 42 40 46 134 17 35 - 42 54 15 130 37 3 - 42 34 41 135 17 44 - 42 57 48
133 33 24 - 41 30 28 12 53 20 49 247 -33 132 13 41 - 41 23 40 134 54 30 - 41 35 58 131 17 9 - 41 18 0 135 53 46 - 41 39 5
134 12 5 - 40 11 51 12 53 27 48 245 -35 132 53 27 - 40 5 39 135 32 6 - 40 16 44 131 57 40 - 40 0 25 136 30 34 - 40 19 24
134 51 27 - 38 52 10 12 53 34 47 244 -36 133 33 47 - 38 46 36 136 10 29 - 38 56 25 132 38 41 - 38 41 49 137 8 14 - 38 58 37
135 31 36 - 37 31 21 12 53 41 46 242 -37 134 14 48 - 37 26 26 136 49 46 - 37 34 55 133 20 19 - 37 22 7 137 46 53 - 37 36 36
136 12 41 - 36 9 14 12 53 48 44 241 -39 134 56 38 - 36 5 1 137 30 4 - 36 12 5 134 2 42 - 36 1 11 138 26 38 - 36 13 15
136 54 49 - 34 45 42 12 53 54 43 240 -40 135 39 26 - 34 42 14 138 11 33 - 34 47 47 134 45 58 - 34 38 54 139 7 39 - 34 48 22
137 38 10 - 33 20 34 12 54 1 42 239 -42 136 23 20 - 33 17 53 138 54 21 - 33 21 50 135 30 16 - 33 15 7 139 50 5 - 33 21 48
138 22 54 - 31 53 40 12 54 8 41 237 -43 137 8 30 - 31 51 50 139 38 42 - 31 54 1 136 15 46 - 31 49 39 140 34 9 - 31 53 19
139 9 16 - 30 24 45 12 54 15 39 236 -45 137 55 10 - 30 23 51 140 24 47 - 30 24 8 137 2 40 - 30 22 18 141 20 4 - 30 22 40
139 57 29 - 28 53 35 12 54 22 38 235 -47 138 43 33 - 28 53 42 141 12 53 - 28 51 52 137 51 12 - 28 52 50 142 8 7 - 28 49 34
140 47 52 - 27 19 49 12 54 29 36 234 -48 139 33 56 - 27 21 4 142 3 19 - 27 16 53 138 41 37 - 27 20 59 142 58 39 - 27 13 39
141 40 46 - 25 43 5 12 54 36 35 233 -50 140 26 40 - 25 45 37 142 56 30 - 25 38 46 139 34 15 - 25 46 24 143 52 5 - 25 34 28
142 36 40 - 24 2 54 12 54 42 33 232 -52 141 22 9 - 24 6 54 143 52 55 - 23 56 59 140 29 31 - 24 8 40 144 48 57 - 23 51 27
143 36 7 - 22 18 40 12 54 49 31 231 -54 142 20 56 - 22 24 22 144 53 13 - 22 10 52 141 27 53 - 22 27 16 145 49 59 - 22 3 51
144 39 56 - 20 29 34 12 54 56 29 230 -56 143 23 42 - 20 37 18 145 58 17 - 20 19 31 142 30 1 - 20 41 32 146 56 7 - 20 10 42
145 49 9 - 18 34 32 12 55 3 27 230 -58 144 31 23 - 18 44 44 147 9 20 - 18 21 40 143 36 45 - 18 50 34 148 8 43 - 18 10 36
147 5 15 - 16 32 0 12 55 10 25 229 -61 145 45 16 - 16 45 20 148 28 6 - 16 15 33 144 49 17 - 16 53 12 149 29 46 - 16 1 32
148 30 31 - 14 19 42 12 55 17 23 228 -63 147 7 17 - 14 37 10 149 57 23 - 13 58 22 146 9 18 - 14 47 39 151 2 31 - 13 40 14
150 8 43 - 11 53 51 12 55 24 20 228 -66 148 40 27 - 12 17 10 151 41 55 - 11 25 21 147 39 28 - 12 31 14 152 52 48 - 11 0 54
152 6 52 - 9 7 27 12 55 31 16 227 -70 150 30 8 - 9 39 58 153 51 29 - 8 26 50 149 24 16 - 9 59 28 155 13 23 - 7 50 54
154 41 44 - 5 43 57 12 55 37 12 226 -74 152 47 40 - 6 34 20 156 53 37 - 4 35 46 151 32 41 - 7 3 23 158 48 44 - 3 26 48
159 10 1 - 0 28 34 12 55 44 5 226 -81 156 8 28 - 2 25 30 ... .. .. .. .. .. 154 28 44 - 3 19 21 ... .. .. .. .. ..
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