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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Oct 12 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (391) Ingeborg will occult a 9.3 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a path across Australia, New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.9 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
126 4 49 - 16 43 23 16 30 10 6 89 -60 127 11 29 - 16 36 56 124 43 10 - 16 49 45 129 29 27 - 16 19 58 ... .. .. .. .. ..
129 27 30 - 17 17 10 16 30 14 9 88 -58 130 13 16 - 17 10 33 128 37 40 - 17 23 44 131 58 33 - 16 53 20 125 57 3 - 17 40 40
131 54 38 - 17 50 41 16 30 18 12 87 -56 132 32 1 - 17 44 0 131 15 9 - 17 57 21 134 1 13 - 17 26 37 129 19 19 - 18 14 37
133 55 54 - 18 24 8 16 30 22 13 86 -54 134 28 30 - 18 17 24 133 21 56 - 18 30 51 135 47 46 - 17 59 54 131 45 42 - 18 48 18
135 41 18 - 18 57 35 16 30 25 15 85 -53 136 10 44 - 18 50 49 135 10 52 - 19 4 21 137 23 8 - 18 33 12 133 46 13 - 19 21 56
137 15 41 - 19 31 4 16 30 29 16 84 -51 137 42 51 - 19 24 15 136 47 44 - 19 37 52 138 50 10 - 19 6 34 135 30 53 - 19 55 34
138 41 50 - 20 4 36 16 30 33 18 84 -50 139 7 16 - 19 57 46 138 15 46 - 20 11 27 140 10 41 - 19 39 59 137 4 35 - 20 29 14
140 1 33 - 20 38 13 16 30 37 19 83 -48 140 25 37 - 20 31 21 139 36 55 - 20 45 6 141 25 54 - 20 13 29 138 30 5 - 21 2 59
141 16 1 - 21 11 55 16 30 40 20 82 -47 141 39 0 - 21 5 0 140 52 33 - 21 18 49 142 36 42 - 20 47 3 139 49 10 - 21 36 48
142 26 7 - 21 45 42 16 30 44 21 82 -46 142 48 12 - 21 38 46 142 3 38 - 21 52 39 143 43 47 - 21 20 44 141 3 1 - 22 10 43
143 32 32 - 22 19 36 16 30 48 22 81 -45 143 53 51 - 22 12 37 143 10 50 - 22 26 34 144 47 38 - 21 54 31 142 12 32 - 22 44 44
144 35 45 - 22 53 36 16 30 52 23 80 -44 144 56 25 - 22 46 36 144 14 44 - 23 0 36 145 48 40 - 22 28 24 143 18 22 - 23 18 51
145 36 10 - 23 27 43 16 30 56 24 80 -43 145 56 18 - 23 20 41 145 15 44 - 23 34 46 146 47 13 - 23 2 24 144 21 1 - 23 53 6
146 34 7 - 24 1 58 16 30 59 25 79 -41 146 53 46 - 23 54 53 146 14 11 - 24 9 2 147 43 33 - 23 36 31 145 20 53 - 24 27 28
147 29 52 - 24 36 20 16 31 3 25 78 -40 147 49 6 - 24 29 14 147 10 22 - 24 43 27 148 37 53 - 24 10 47 146 18 17 - 25 1 58
148 23 38 - 25 10 51 16 31 7 26 77 -39 148 42 31 - 25 3 43 148 4 31 - 25 18 0 149 30 25 - 24 45 10 147 13 29 - 25 36 36
149 15 37 - 25 45 31 16 31 11 27 77 -38 149 34 10 - 25 38 20 148 56 49 - 25 52 42 150 21 18 - 25 19 42 148 6 43 - 26 11 24
150 5 57 - 26 20 19 16 31 15 27 76 -37 150 24 14 - 26 13 6 149 47 27 - 26 27 32 151 10 42 - 25 54 22 148 58 9 - 26 46 21
150 54 48 - 26 55 17 16 31 18 28 75 -37 151 12 50 - 26 48 2 150 36 32 - 27 2 33 151 58 42 - 26 29 12 149 47 57 - 27 21 27
151 42 16 - 27 30 25 16 31 22 28 74 -36 152 0 5 - 27 23 8 151 24 13 - 27 37 43 152 45 26 - 27 4 12 150 36 15 - 27 56 44
152 28 27 - 28 5 43 16 31 26 29 74 -35 152 46 5 - 27 58 23 152 10 37 - 28 13 4 153 30 59 - 27 39 21 151 23 10 - 28 32 11
153 13 28 - 28 41 12 16 31 30 29 73 -34 153 30 57 - 28 33 50 152 55 48 - 28 48 35 154 15 27 - 28 14 41 152 8 49 - 29 7 49
153 57 23 - 29 16 53 16 31 33 30 72 -33 154 14 43 - 29 9 27 153 39 51 - 29 24 18 154 58 53 - 28 50 12 152 53 17 - 29 43 39
154 40 17 - 29 52 44 16 31 37 30 71 -32 154 57 29 - 29 45 17 154 22 52 - 30 0 13 155 41 21 - 29 25 55 153 36 39 - 30 19 41
155 22 12 - 30 28 48 16 31 41 31 70 -31 155 39 19 - 30 21 18 155 4 54 - 30 36 19 156 22 56 - 30 1 49 154 18 59 - 30 55 55
156 3 14 - 31 5 5 16 31 45 31 70 -30 156 20 16 - 30 57 31 155 46 1 - 31 12 39 157 3 40 - 30 37 55 155 0 20 - 31 32 22
156 43 25 - 31 41 34 16 31 49 31 69 -30 157 0 22 - 31 33 58 156 26 16 - 31 49 11 157 43 36 - 31 14 14 155 40 47 - 32 9 2
157 22 47 - 32 18 18 16 31 52 31 68 -29 157 39 42 - 32 10 38 157 5 42 - 32 25 58 158 22 48 - 31 50 46 156 20 23 - 32 45 56
158 1 25 - 32 55 15 16 31 56 32 67 -28 158 18 16 - 32 47 32 157 44 22 - 33 2 58 159 1 17 - 32 27 32 156 59 9 - 33 23 5
158 39 19 - 33 32 27 16 32 0 32 66 -27 158 56 9 - 33 24 41 158 22 17 - 33 40 14 159 39 5 - 33 4 33 157 37 9 - 34 0 29
159 16 32 - 34 9 54 16 32 4 32 65 -26 159 33 21 - 34 2 5 158 59 31 - 34 17 44 160 16 16 - 33 41 48 158 14 26 - 34 38 9
159 53 5 - 34 47 38 16 32 7 32 65 -26 160 9 55 - 34 39 45 159 36 5 - 34 55 31 160 52 50 - 34 19 19 158 51 0 - 35 16 5
160 29 2 - 35 25 38 16 32 11 33 64 -25 160 45 52 - 35 17 41 160 12 1 - 35 33 35 161 28 49 - 34 57 6 159 26 54 - 35 54 19
161 4 23 - 36 3 55 16 32 15 33 63 -24 161 21 15 - 35 55 54 160 47 21 - 36 11 56 162 4 15 - 35 35 9 160 2 9 - 36 32 50
161 39 10 - 36 42 30 16 32 19 33 62 -23 161 56 4 - 36 34 26 161 22 5 - 36 50 35 162 39 10 - 36 13 30 160 36 48 - 37 11 39
162 13 24 - 37 21 24 16 32 23 33 61 -23 162 30 21 - 37 13 15 161 56 16 - 37 29 33 163 13 34 - 36 52 9 161 10 51 - 37 50 48
162 47 7 - 38 0 37 16 32 26 33 60 -22 163 4 7 - 37 52 24 162 29 55 - 38 8 50 163 47 29 - 37 31 8 161 44 19 - 38 30 17
163 20 18 - 38 40 10 16 32 30 33 59 -21 163 37 23 - 38 31 53 163 3 3 - 38 48 28 164 20 56 - 38 10 25 162 17 15 - 39 10 7
163 53 1 - 39 20 5 16 32 34 33 58 -21 164 10 10 - 39 11 44 163 35 40 - 39 28 28 164 53 56 - 38 50 4 162 49 37 - 39 50 19
164 25 15 - 40 0 22 16 32 38 33 58 -20 164 42 30 - 39 51 56 164 7 47 - 40 8 50 165 26 30 - 39 30 3 163 21 29 - 40 30 53
164 57 0 - 40 41 2 16 32 41 33 57 -19 165 14 22 - 40 32 31 164 39 26 - 40 49 35 165 58 39 - 40 10 26 163 52 49 - 41 11 52
165 28 19 - 41 22 6 16 32 45 33 56 -18 165 45 49 - 41 13 30 165 10 37 - 41 30 44 166 30 24 - 40 51 11 164 23 39 - 41 53 16
165 59 11 - 42 3 36 16 32 49 33 55 -18 166 16 49 - 41 54 54 165 41 21 - 42 12 19 167 1 44 - 41 32 21 164 53 59 - 42 35 5
166 29 36 - 42 45 32 16 32 53 33 54 -17 166 47 23 - 42 36 44 166 11 37 - 42 54 21 167 32 42 - 42 13 57 165 23 49 - 43 17 23
166 59 36 - 43 27 56 16 32 57 33 53 -16 167 17 33 - 43 19 2 166 41 26 - 43 36 51 168 3 16 - 42 55 59 165 53 9 - 44 0 9
167 29 10 - 44 10 49 16 33 0 33 52 -16 167 47 18 - 44 1 49 167 10 48 - 44 19 50 168 33 28 - 43 38 30 166 22 0 - 44 43 25
167 58 17 - 44 54 12 16 33 4 33 52 -15 168 16 38 - 44 45 5 167 39 43 - 45 3 21 169 3 18 - 44 21 30 166 50 21 - 45 27 13
168 27 0 - 45 38 8 16 33 8 32 51 -14 168 45 33 - 45 28 54 168 8 12 - 45 47 23 169 32 46 - 45 5 1 167 18 12 - 46 11 34
168 55 16 - 46 22 38 16 33 12 32 50 -14 169 14 4 - 46 13 16 168 36 13 - 46 32 0 170 1 52 - 45 49 4 167 45 32 - 46 56 31
169 23 5 - 47 7 43 16 33 15 32 49 -13 169 42 9 - 46 58 14 169 3 46 - 47 17 13 170 30 36 - 46 33 42 168 12 20 - 47 42 4
169 50 27 - 47 53 26 16 33 19 32 48 -13 170 9 48 - 47 43 48 169 30 51 - 48 3 4 170 58 58 - 47 18 56 168 38 35 - 48 28 17
170 17 22 - 48 39 48 16 33 23 31 47 -12 170 37 1 - 48 30 3 169 57 25 - 48 49 36 171 26 57 - 48 4 48 169 4 17 - 49 15 12
170 43 47 - 49 26 53 16 33 27 31 47 -11 171 3 47 - 49 16 58 170 23 29 - 49 36 50 171 54 32 - 48 51 20 169 29 22 - 50 2 51
171 9 41 - 50 14 43 16 33 31 31 46 -11 171 30 4 - 50 4 38 170 49 1 - 50 24 49 172 21 43 - 49 38 36 169 53 49 - 50 51 16
171 35 3 - 51 3 20 16 33 34 30 45 -10 171 55 50 - 50 53 5 171 13 58 - 51 13 37 172 48 29 - 50 26 36 170 17 36 - 51 40 31
171 59 51 - 51 52 48 16 33 38 30 44 -10 172 21 4 - 51 42 22 171 38 17 - 52 3 16 173 14 49 - 51 15 25 170 40 38 - 52 30 40
172 24 1 - 52 43 9 16 33 42 29 43 -9 172 45 44 - 52 32 32 172 1 57 - 52 53 49 173 40 39 - 52 5 6 171 2 53 - 53 21 45
172 47 30 - 53 34 29 16 33 46 29 43 -8 173 9 46 - 53 23 39 172 24 53 - 53 45 22 174 5 59 - 52 55 41 171 24 14 - 54 13 51
173 10 15 - 54 26 50 16 33 50 29 42 -8 173 33 6 - 54 15 47 172 47 0 - 54 37 57 174 30 46 - 53 47 15 171 44 37 - 55 7 3
173 32 9 - 55 20 19 16 33 53 28 41 -7 173 55 40 - 55 9 1 173 8 13 - 55 31 40 174 54 55 - 54 39 52 172 3 54 - 56 1 25
173 53 8 - 56 14 59 16 33 57 27 41 -7 174 17 22 - 56 3 26 173 28 25 - 56 26 36 175 18 23 - 55 33 38 172 21 57 - 56 57 5
174 13 2 - 57 10 58 16 34 1 27 40 -6 174 38 6 - 56 59 7 173 47 28 - 57 22 52 175 41 5 - 56 28 36 172 38 33 - 57 54 7
174 31 42 - 58 8 22 16 34 5 26 39 -6 174 57 42 - 57 56 12 174 5 10 - 58 20 35 176 2 54 - 57 24 55 172 53 29 - 58 52 40
174 48 56 - 59 7 18 16 34 8 26 39 -5 175 15 59 - 58 54 49 174 21 18 - 59 19 52 176 23 41 - 58 22 40 173 6 29 - 59 52 53
175 4 29 - 60 7 57 16 34 12 25 38 -4 175 32 44 - 59 55 5 174 35 35 - 60 20 53 176 43 16 - 59 22 1 173 17 8 - 60 54 55
175 18 0 - 61 10 28 16 34 16 24 37 -4 175 47 37 - 60 57 12 174 47 39 - 61 23 50 177 1 25 - 60 23 5 173 24 59 - 61 59 0
175 29 4 - 62 15 4 16 34 20 23 37 -3 176 0 17 - 62 1 21 174 57 0 - 62 28 54 177 17 51 - 61 26 6 173 29 22 - 63 5 21
175 37 5 - 63 22 2 16 34 24 22 37 -3 176 10 12 - 63 7 47 175 2 59 - 63 36 23 177 32 12 - 62 31 15 173 29 27 - 64 14 16
175 41 17 - 64 31 37 16 34 27 21 36 -2 176 16 41 - 64 16 48 175 4 46 - 64 46 35 177 43 55 - 63 38 49 173 24 3 - 65 26 6
175 40 35 - 65 44 14 16 34 31 21 36 -2 176 18 45 - 65 28 44 175 1 6 - 65 59 53 177 52 19 - 64 49 7 173 11 30 - 66 41 18
175 33 28 - 67 0 21 16 34 35 19 36 -1 176 15 5 - 66 44 4 174 50 15 - 67 16 48 177 56 27 - 66 2 32 172 49 22 - 68 0 26
175 17 41 - 68 20 33 16 34 39 18 36 -1 176 3 42 - 68 3 21 174 29 39 - 68 37 57 177 54 55 - 67 19 35 172 13 58 - 69 24 13
174 49 46 - 69 45 38 16 34 42 17 36 -1 175 41 36 - 69 27 20 173 55 17 - 70 4 11 177 45 38 - 68 40 54 171 19 21 - 70 53 40
174 4 6 - 71 16 41 16 34 46 16 36 0 175 4 1 - 70 57 3 173 0 34 - 71 36 40 177 25 25 - 70 7 21 169 55 17 - 72 30 11
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