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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Oct 02 UT, the 255 km diameter asteroid (31) Euphrosyne will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Telescopium for observers along a path across Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.0 mag to 13.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 17.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
... .. .. 7 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 125 54 50
... .. .. 6 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. 127 16 3 ... .. .. 125 10 17
129 33 13 5 0 0 16 1 53 0 220 -77 ... .. .. 126 31 26 ... .. .. 124 29 8
128 46 42 4 0 0 16 1 53 2 220 -78 ... .. .. 125 50 23 ... .. .. 123 51 7
128 4 14 3 0 0 16 1 52 3 219 -79 131 18 4 125 12 37 ... .. .. 123 15 59
127 25 26 2 0 0 16 1 51 4 219 -79 130 33 23 124 37 53 133 11 32 122 43 32
126 50 0 1 0 0 16 1 50 5 219 -80 129 52 56 124 5 57 132 25 38 122 13 38
126 17 40 0 0 0 16 1 48 6 219 -80 129 16 19 123 36 40 131 44 27 121 46 6
125 48 14 - 1 0 0 16 1 46 7 219 -80 128 43 14 123 9 52 131 7 30 121 20 51
125 21 32 - 2 0 0 16 1 44 8 220 -80 128 13 23 122 45 27 130 34 25 120 57 45
124 57 24 - 3 0 0 16 1 41 9 220 -79 127 46 35 122 23 16 130 4 52 120 36 43
124 35 43 - 4 0 0 16 1 38 10 220 -79 127 22 39 122 3 16 129 38 38 120 17 41
124 16 24 - 5 0 0 16 1 35 11 220 -78 127 1 26 121 45 20 129 15 30 120 0 35
123 59 21 - 6 0 0 16 1 32 12 220 -78 126 42 49 121 29 26 128 55 18 119 45 22
123 44 30 - 7 0 0 16 1 28 13 220 -77 126 26 42 121 15 31 128 37 55 119 31 59
123 31 48 - 8 0 0 16 1 24 14 220 -76 126 13 1 121 3 31 128 23 15 119 20 24
123 21 11 - 9 0 0 16 1 20 15 220 -76 126 1 43 120 53 25 128 11 13 119 10 35
123 12 40 -10 0 0 16 1 16 16 221 -75 125 52 44 120 45 11 128 1 46 119 2 31
123 6 11 -11 0 0 16 1 12 17 221 -74 125 46 3 120 38 49 127 54 51 118 56 11
123 1 44 -12 0 0 16 1 7 17 221 -73 125 41 40 120 34 17 127 50 27 118 51 34
122 59 20 -13 0 0 16 1 2 18 221 -72 125 39 33 120 31 37 127 48 33 118 48 42
122 58 58 -14 0 0 16 0 57 19 221 -71 125 39 43 120 30 47 127 49 11 118 47 34
123 0 41 -15 0 0 16 0 52 20 222 -70 125 42 13 120 31 50 127 52 22 118 48 11
123 4 29 -16 0 0 16 0 46 20 222 -69 125 47 3 120 34 47 127 58 9 118 50 34
123 10 25 -17 0 0 16 0 41 21 222 -68 125 54 17 120 39 39 128 6 35 118 54 46
123 18 32 -18 0 0 16 0 35 22 222 -67 126 3 59 120 46 29 128 17 45 119 0 47
123 28 54 -19 0 0 16 0 29 22 223 -66 126 16 14 120 55 21 128 31 46 119 8 41
123 41 36 -20 0 0 16 0 23 23 223 -65 126 31 8 121 6 17 128 48 46 119 18 32
123 56 43 -21 0 0 16 0 16 24 223 -64 126 48 49 121 19 23 129 8 53 119 30 22
124 14 21 -22 0 0 16 0 9 24 223 -63 127 9 24 121 34 43 129 32 19 119 44 16
124 34 38 -23 0 0 16 0 3 25 224 -62 127 33 4 121 52 23 129 59 19 120 0 19
124 57 43 -24 0 0 15 59 56 25 224 -61 128 0 3 122 12 30 130 30 9 120 18 38
125 23 48 -25 0 0 15 59 48 26 224 -60 128 30 35 122 35 12 131 5 11 120 39 18
125 53 3 -26 0 0 15 59 41 26 225 -59 129 4 59 123 0 40 131 44 50 121 2 29
126 25 46 -27 0 0 15 59 33 27 225 -58 129 43 36 123 29 3 132 29 41 121 28 18
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
127 0 0 -27 56 32 15 59 26 27 225 -57 -21 33 41 -32 19 4 .. .. .. -35 0 43
128 0 0 -29 23 42 15 59 14 27 226 -55 -23 59 53 -33 25 26 -16 14 57 -35 57 59
129 0 0 -30 39 11 15 59 3 28 226 -54 -25 51 44 -34 24 55 -20 34 41 -36 49 57
130 0 0 -31 45 37 15 58 52 28 226 -53 -27 23 32 -35 18 34 -23 1 25 -37 37 19
131 0 0 -32 44 46 15 58 43 28 226 -51 -28 41 37 -36 7 15 -24 51 35 -38 20 38
132 0 0 -33 37 50 15 58 34 28 226 -50 -29 49 27 -36 51 34 -26 21 7 -39 0 21
133 0 0 -34 25 42 15 58 26 28 226 -49 -30 49 13 -37 32 3 -27 36 46 -39 36 49
134 0 0 -35 9 4 15 58 18 28 226 -48 -31 42 23 -38 9 4 -28 42 7 -40 10 20
135 0 0 -35 48 28 15 58 10 28 226 -47 -32 29 57 -38 42 59 -29 39 23 -40 41 9
136 0 0 -36 24 18 15 58 3 27 226 -46 -33 12 44 -39 14 2 -30 30 3 -41 9 29
137 0 0 -36 56 54 15 57 56 27 226 -46 -33 51 18 -39 42 28 -31 15 9 -41 35 30
138 0 0 -37 26 35 15 57 49 27 226 -45 -34 26 6 -40 8 28 -31 55 27 -41 59 21
139 0 0 -37 53 33 15 57 43 27 226 -44 -34 57 31 -40 32 13 -32 31 32 -42 21 11
140 0 0 -38 18 1 15 57 37 27 226 -43 -35 25 50 -40 53 50 -33 3 50 -42 41 6
141 0 0 -38 40 8 15 57 31 26 226 -42 -35 51 19 -41 13 26 -33 32 44 -42 59 13
142 0 0 -39 0 3 15 57 25 26 225 -42 -36 14 10 -41 31 9 -33 58 30 -43 15 35
143 0 0 -39 17 53 15 57 19 26 225 -41 -36 34 32 -41 47 2 -34 21 23 -43 30 19
144 0 0 -39 33 44 15 57 14 25 225 -40 -36 52 35 -42 1 12 -34 41 35 -43 43 27
145 0 0 -39 47 40 15 57 9 25 224 -40 -37 8 24 -42 13 41 -34 59 15 -43 55 3
146 0 0 -39 59 47 15 57 3 25 224 -39 -37 22 7 -42 24 34 -35 14 31 -44 5 9
147 0 0 -40 10 8 15 56 58 24 224 -39 -37 33 48 -42 33 52 -35 27 29 -44 13 49
148 0 0 -40 18 46 15 56 53 24 223 -38 -37 43 31 -42 41 39 -35 38 14 -44 21 5
149 0 0 -40 25 43 15 56 49 23 223 -38 -37 51 20 -42 47 56 -35 46 51 -44 26 57
150 0 0 -40 31 2 15 56 44 23 223 -37 -37 57 16 -42 52 45 -35 53 22 -44 31 27
151 0 0 -40 34 43 15 56 39 22 222 -36 -38 1 21 -42 56 6 -35 57 51 -44 34 36
152 0 0 -40 36 48 15 56 35 22 222 -36 -38 3 38 -42 58 1 -36 0 18 -44 36 25
153 0 0 -40 37 16 15 56 30 21 222 -35 -38 4 5 -42 58 30 -36 0 45 -44 36 54
154 0 0 -40 36 9 15 56 26 21 221 -35 -38 2 44 -42 57 33 -35 59 11 -44 36 3
155 0 0 -40 33 25 15 56 22 20 221 -34 -37 59 34 -42 55 10 -35 55 35 -44 33 52
156 0 0 -40 29 4 15 56 18 20 220 -34 -37 54 34 -42 51 20 -35 49 56 -44 30 21
157 0 0 -40 23 5 15 56 14 19 220 -33 -37 47 41 -42 46 2 -35 42 12 -44 25 28
158 0 0 -40 15 25 15 56 10 19 219 -33 -37 38 53 -42 39 14 -35 32 19 -44 19 12
159 0 0 -40 6 2 15 56 6 18 219 -32 -37 28 8 -42 30 54 -35 20 13 -44 11 31
160 0 0 -39 54 53 15 56 2 17 218 -32 -37 15 20 -42 21 2 -35 5 48 -44 2 25
161 0 0 -39 41 55 15 55 58 17 218 -31 -37 0 25 -42 9 32 -34 48 59 -43 51 49
162 0 0 -39 27 3 15 55 55 16 217 -31 -36 43 17 -41 56 23 -34 29 36 -43 39 42
163 0 0 -39 10 12 15 55 51 16 217 -31 -36 23 49 -41 41 30 -34 7 31 -43 26 1
164 0 0 -38 51 15 15 55 48 15 216 -30 -36 1 52 -41 24 49 -33 42 31 -43 10 41
165 0 0 -38 30 7 15 55 44 14 216 -30 -35 37 15 -41 6 15 -33 14 21 -42 53 38
166 0 0 -38 6 38 15 55 41 13 215 -29 -35 9 46 -40 45 41 -32 42 42 -42 34 47
167 0 0 -37 40 38 15 55 38 12 215 -29 -34 39 10 -40 22 59 -32 7 13 -42 14 2
168 0 0 -37 11 55 15 55 35 12 214 -28 -34 5 8 -39 58 3 -31 27 24 -41 51 16
169 0 0 -36 40 15 15 55 32 11 214 -28 -33 27 16 -39 30 40 -30 42 37 -41 26 21
170 0 0 -36 5 20 15 55 29 10 213 -28 -32 45 6 -39 0 41 -29 52 3 -40 59 9
171 0 0 -35 26 49 15 55 26 9 213 -27 -31 57 59 -38 27 51 -28 54 32 -40 29 28
172 0 0 -34 44 16 15 55 24 8 212 -27 -31 5 6 -37 51 52 -27 48 26 -39 57 6
173 0 0 -33 57 7 15 55 22 7 212 -26 -30 5 18 -37 12 26 -26 31 9 -39 21 46
174 0 0 -33 4 39 15 55 19 6 211 -26 -28 56 58 -36 29 6 .. .. .. -38 43 12
175 0 0 -32 5 54 15 55 18 4 211 -26 -27 37 38 -35 41 22 .. .. .. -38 1 1
176 0 0 -30 59 32 15 55 16 3 210 -25 .. .. .. -34 48 33 .. .. .. -37 14 45
177 0 0 -29 43 38 15 55 15 1 210 -25 .. .. .. -33 49 48 .. .. .. -36 23 51
178 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -32 43 55 .. .. .. -35 27 34
179 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -31 29 14 .. .. .. -34 24 55
180 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -30 3 14 .. .. .. -33 14 36
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