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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Mar 02 UT, the 37 km diameter asteroid (474) Prudentia will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.6 mag to 16.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
110 12 54 -49 0 0 11 48 45 26 359 -4 110 39 55 109 45 58 111 39 41 108 47 2
111 10 6 -48 0 0 11 48 55 27 357 -5 111 36 47 110 43 31 112 35 48 109 45 21
112 7 31 -47 0 0 11 49 6 28 356 -6 112 33 53 111 41 15 113 32 13 110 43 47
113 5 12 -46 0 0 11 49 16 29 355 -7 113 31 17 112 39 13 114 29 1 111 42 23
114 3 14 -45 0 0 11 49 27 30 354 -8 114 29 4 113 37 30 115 26 16 112 41 13
115 1 40 -44 0 0 11 49 39 31 353 -9 115 27 17 114 36 10 116 24 1 113 40 23
116 0 36 -43 0 0 11 49 51 32 352 -10 116 26 2 115 35 17 117 22 21 114 39 55
117 0 5 -42 0 0 11 50 3 33 350 -11 117 25 21 116 34 55 118 21 21 115 39 56
118 0 12 -41 0 0 11 50 16 34 349 -12 118 25 21 117 35 11 119 21 4 116 40 30
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
119 0 0 -40 1 1 11 50 29 34 348 -13 -40 25 40 -39 36 41 -41 21 5 -38 44 10
120 0 0 -39 2 35 11 50 43 35 346 -14 -39 26 50 -38 38 37 -40 21 19 -37 46 54
121 0 0 -38 4 57 11 50 56 36 345 -15 -38 28 49 -37 41 21 -39 22 23 -36 50 25
122 0 0 -37 8 9 11 51 10 37 343 -16 -37 31 39 -36 44 55 -38 24 21 -35 54 44
123 0 0 -36 12 14 11 51 24 37 342 -18 -36 35 22 -35 49 22 -37 27 13 -34 59 55
124 0 0 -35 17 15 11 51 38 38 341 -19 -35 40 2 -34 54 43 -36 31 4 -34 5 58
125 0 0 -34 23 13 11 51 52 38 339 -20 -34 45 39 -34 1 1 -35 35 53 -33 12 58
126 0 0 -33 30 10 11 52 6 39 338 -21 -33 52 16 -33 8 17 -34 41 45 -32 20 55
127 0 0 -32 38 8 11 52 21 39 336 -22 -32 59 55 -32 16 34 -33 48 39 -31 29 51
128 0 0 -31 47 9 11 52 35 40 334 -23 -32 8 37 -31 25 52 -32 56 38 -30 39 47
129 0 0 -30 57 13 11 52 50 40 333 -25 -31 18 23 -30 36 14 -32 5 43 -29 50 46
130 0 0 -30 8 22 11 53 4 40 331 -26 -30 29 15 -29 47 40 -31 15 55 -29 2 47
131 0 0 -29 20 37 11 53 19 40 330 -27 -29 41 14 -29 0 12 -30 27 15 -28 15 53
132 0 0 -28 33 59 11 53 33 41 328 -28 -28 54 19 -28 13 49 -29 39 43 -27 30 4
133 0 0 -27 48 28 11 53 48 41 327 -29 -28 8 33 -27 28 34 -28 53 21 -26 45 21
134 0 0 -27 4 6 11 54 2 41 325 -31 -27 23 56 -26 44 26 -28 8 9 -26 1 44
135 0 0 -26 20 52 11 54 17 41 324 -32 -26 40 27 -26 1 27 -27 24 8 -25 19 15
136 0 0 -25 38 47 11 54 31 41 322 -33 -25 58 9 -25 19 35 -26 41 17 -24 37 53
137 0 0 -24 57 52 11 54 45 41 321 -34 -25 17 0 -24 38 53 -25 59 37 -23 57 38
138 0 0 -24 18 6 11 54 59 41 319 -35 -24 37 1 -23 59 20 -25 19 9 -23 18 32
139 0 0 -23 39 30 11 55 13 41 318 -36 -23 58 12 -23 20 56 -24 39 52 -22 40 34
140 0 0 -23 2 3 11 55 27 40 317 -37 -23 20 34 -22 43 41 -24 1 46 -22 3 44
141 0 0 -22 25 47 11 55 41 40 315 -39 -22 44 5 -22 7 36 -23 24 52 -21 28 2
142 0 0 -21 50 39 11 55 54 40 314 -40 -22 8 47 -21 32 39 -22 49 8 -20 53 29
143 0 0 -21 16 42 11 56 7 40 313 -41 -21 34 39 -20 58 52 -22 14 36 -20 20 4
144 0 0 -20 43 53 11 56 21 39 311 -42 -21 1 40 -20 26 13 -21 41 14 -19 47 46
145 0 0 -20 12 14 11 56 34 39 310 -43 -20 29 51 -19 54 43 -21 9 3 -19 16 37
146 0 0 -19 41 43 11 56 46 38 309 -44 -19 59 11 -19 24 22 -20 38 2 -18 46 35
147 0 0 -19 12 21 11 56 59 38 308 -45 -19 29 40 -18 55 8 -20 8 10 -18 17 40
148 0 0 -18 44 7 11 57 11 37 307 -46 -19 1 17 -18 27 3 -19 39 28 -17 49 52
149 0 0 -18 17 0 11 57 24 37 306 -48 -18 34 3 -18 0 4 -19 11 55 -17 23 11
150 0 0 -17 51 1 11 57 35 36 305 -49 -18 7 56 -17 34 13 -18 45 31 -16 57 36
151 0 0 -17 26 9 11 57 47 36 304 -50 -17 42 57 -17 9 28 -18 20 15 -16 33 7
152 0 0 -17 2 24 11 57 59 35 303 -51 -17 19 4 -16 45 50 -17 56 6 -16 9 43
153 0 0 -16 39 45 11 58 10 34 302 -52 -16 56 18 -16 23 17 -17 33 5 -15 47 24
154 0 0 -16 18 11 11 58 21 34 301 -53 -16 34 38 -16 1 50 -17 11 11 -15 26 10
155 0 0 -15 57 43 11 58 32 33 300 -54 -16 14 4 -15 41 27 -16 50 23 -15 6 1
156 0 0 -15 38 20 11 58 42 32 299 -55 -15 54 35 -15 22 10 -16 30 41 -14 46 55
157 0 0 -15 20 1 11 58 52 32 299 -56 -15 36 11 -15 3 56 -16 12 5 -14 28 53
158 0 0 -15 2 46 11 59 2 31 298 -57 -15 18 51 -14 46 46 -15 54 34 -14 11 54
159 0 0 -14 46 35 11 59 12 30 297 -58 -15 2 35 -14 30 40 -15 38 7 -13 55 57
160 0 0 -14 31 27 11 59 22 29 297 -59 -14 47 23 -14 15 36 -15 22 44 -13 41 3
161 0 0 -14 17 22 11 59 31 28 296 -59 -14 33 13 -14 1 35 -15 8 25 -13 27 11
162 0 0 -14 4 19 11 59 40 28 295 -60 -14 20 6 -13 48 36 -14 55 10 -13 14 20
163 0 0 -13 52 18 11 59 48 27 295 -61 -14 8 2 -13 36 39 -14 42 57 -13 2 31
164 0 0 -13 41 19 11 59 57 26 294 -62 -13 56 59 -13 25 43 -14 31 47 -12 51 42
165 0 0 -13 31 21 12 0 5 25 294 -63 -13 46 58 -13 15 48 -14 21 39 -12 41 53
166 0 0 -13 22 24 12 0 13 24 293 -64 -13 37 58 -13 6 54 -14 12 33 -12 33 5
167 0 0 -13 14 27 12 0 20 23 293 -64 -13 29 59 -12 59 0 -14 4 28 -12 25 16
168 0 0 -13 7 31 12 0 27 23 292 -65 -13 23 1 -12 52 5 -13 57 24 -12 18 27
169 0 0 -13 1 34 12 0 34 22 292 -66 -13 17 2 -12 46 11 -13 51 21 -12 12 36
170 0 0 -12 56 37 12 0 41 21 292 -66 -13 12 4 -12 41 16 -13 46 19 -12 7 45
171 0 0 -12 52 40 12 0 48 20 291 -67 -13 8 5 -12 37 20 -13 42 16 -12 3 52
172 0 0 -12 49 41 12 0 54 19 291 -68 -13 5 5 -12 34 23 -13 39 14 -12 0 58
173 0 0 -12 47 42 12 1 0 18 291 -68 -13 3 4 -12 32 24 -13 37 11 -11 59 1
174 0 0 -12 46 41 12 1 5 17 290 -68 -13 2 2 -12 31 24 -13 36 7 -11 58 2
175 0 0 -12 46 38 12 1 10 16 290 -69 -13 1 59 -12 31 21 -13 36 3 -11 58 1
176 0 0 -12 47 33 12 1 15 15 290 -69 -13 2 54 -12 32 17 -13 36 57 -11 58 57
177 0 0 -12 49 26 12 1 20 14 289 -69 -13 4 47 -12 34 10 -13 38 50 -12 0 51
178 0 0 -12 52 17 12 1 24 13 289 -70 -13 7 39 -12 37 1 -13 41 42 -12 3 41
179 0 0 -12 56 6 12 1 28 12 289 -70 -13 11 27 -12 40 49 -13 45 32 -12 7 28
180 0 0 -13 0 52 12 1 32 11 288 -70 -13 16 14 -12 45 34 -13 50 20 -12 12 12
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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