RASNZ Occultation Section - Baucis Occultation Update

ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (172) BAUCIS - 2003 AUG 02

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

UPDATE: 2003 JUL 05, 19:05 UT

THE UPDATED PATH

(Note: The time given in the line below is for the midpoint of the path as it crosses the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)

On 2003 Aug 02 UT, the 62 km diameter asteroid (172) Baucis will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across northern Australia.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 10.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.0 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from AstDys, and the UCAC catalog for the star position.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :

Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to
the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path
width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path).
Date and approx. UT time of event : 2003 Aug 02, 13:43 - 13:50 UT
(Refer to map(s) for your own location)
Magnitude of target star : 10.7
Magnitude drop [mag] : 0.8
Estimated maximum duration [s] : 7.0
Phase of moon, angular distance : 21 % sunlit, 122° distance
Sun : 171° distance
Rough path description : Australia, Indonesia

Data for the target star :

Name : TYC 6929-01189-1
Constellation : Capricornus
J2000 position [h,m,s ; °,',"]: RA: 20 41 08.5787 DE: -26 34 26.798
Position source : Pos: UCAC2, pm: UCAC2, pi:
Standard error : RA,DE ["]: ( .017, .017 )
V mag [mag] : 10.7
Remarks : (none)

Data for the minor planet :

Number, name : (172) Baucis
Approx. diameter [km] : 62
Approx. diameter [arcsec] : .077
Source of used astrometry : FASTT Astdys
Number of used observations : 442
Number of rejected observations : 43
Time covered by the observations : 1904 Aug 13 - 2003 Jun 27
1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : 0.049, 0.025, 72°
Remarks :
Update computed by : Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).

The Occultation Path :

Approximate projected width [km] : 63
Uncertainty interval [path widths] : +/- 0.45 (1 sigma)
Uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["] : (+/- .050 +/- .032) (1 sigma)
Uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : ( .052", .030", 74° ) (1 sigma)
Remarks :
Path Co-ordinates :

                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    100  0  0     0 32  0   13 53  0    34   123   -34    0 51  0    0 13  0    0 51  0    0 13  0
    101  0  0     0  2 59   13 52 52    35   123   -36    0 21 58  - 0 15 59    0 21 58  - 0 15 59
    102  0  0   - 0 25 47   13 52 44    36   123   -37  - 0  6 50  - 0 44 42  - 0  6 50  - 0 44 42
    103  0  0   - 0 54 16   13 52 36    37   123   -38  - 0 35 22  - 1 13 10  - 0 35 22  - 1 13 10
    104  0  0   - 1 22 30   13 52 27    38   123   -39  - 1  3 37  - 1 41 21  - 1  3 37  - 1 41 21

    105  0  0   - 1 50 26   13 52 19    39   123   -40  - 1 31 36  - 2  9 16  - 1 31 36  - 2  9 16
    106  0  0   - 2 18  5   13 52 10    40   123   -41  - 1 59 17  - 2 36 52  - 1 59 17  - 2 36 52
    107  0  0   - 2 45 26   13 52  1    41   124   -42  - 2 26 40  - 3  4 11  - 2 26 40  - 3  4 11
    108  0  0   - 3 12 29   13 51 52    42   124   -43  - 2 53 45  - 3 31 12  - 2 53 45  - 3 31 12
    109  0  0   - 3 39 12   13 51 43    43   124   -44  - 3 20 31  - 3 57 53  - 3 20 31  - 3 57 53

    110  0  0   - 4  5 37   13 51 34    44   124   -45  - 3 46 57  - 4 24 15  - 3 46 57  - 4 24 15
    111  0  0   - 4 31 41   13 51 25    45   124   -46  - 4 13  4  - 4 50 17  - 4 13  4  - 4 50 17
    112  0  0   - 4 57 26   13 51 15    46   124   -47  - 4 38 50  - 5 15 59  - 4 38 50  - 5 15 59
    113  0  0   - 5 22 49   13 51  5    47   124   -48  - 5  4 16  - 5 41 21  - 5  4 16  - 5 41 21
    114  0  0   - 5 47 52   13 50 55    48   124   -49  - 5 29 21  - 6  6 21  - 5 29 21  - 6  6 21

    115  0  0   - 6 12 33   13 50 45    49   124   -50  - 5 54  5  - 6 31  0  - 5 54  5  - 6 31  0
    116  0  0   - 6 36 53   13 50 35    50   125   -51  - 6 18 27  - 6 55 18  - 6 18 27  - 6 55 18
    117  0  0   - 7  0 51   13 50 25    51   125   -52  - 6 42 27  - 7 19 13  - 6 42 27  - 7 19 13
    118  0  0   - 7 24 26   13 50 15    52   125   -53  - 7  6  5  - 7 42 46  - 7  6  5  - 7 42 46
    119  0  0   - 7 47 39   13 50  4    53   125   -54  - 7 29 20  - 8  5 57  - 7 29 20  - 8  5 57

    120  0  0   - 8 10 29   13 49 54    54   125   -55  - 7 52 13  - 8 28 45  - 7 52 13  - 8 28 45
    121  0  0   - 8 32 56   13 49 43    55   125   -56  - 8 14 42  - 8 51 10  - 8 14 42  - 8 51 10
    122  0  0   - 8 55  0   13 49 33    56   126   -57  - 8 36 48  - 9 13 11  - 8 36 48  - 9 13 11
    123  0  0   - 9 16 40   13 49 22    57   126   -58  - 8 58 31  - 9 34 49  - 8 58 31  - 9 34 49
    124  0  0   - 9 37 57   13 49 11    58   126   -59  - 9 19 49  - 9 56  3  - 9 19 49  - 9 56  3

    125  0  0   - 9 58 49   13 49  0    59   126   -60  - 9 40 44  -10 16 53  - 9 40 44  -10 16 53
    126  0  0   -10 19 18   13 48 49    60   127   -61  -10  1 15  -10 37 19  -10  1 15  -10 37 19
    127  0  0   -10 39 22   13 48 38    61   127   -62  -10 21 21  -10 57 21  -10 21 21  -10 57 21
    128  0  0   -10 59  1   13 48 27    62   128   -63  -10 41  3  -11 16 59  -10 41  3  -11 16 59
    129  0  0   -11 18 17   13 48 15    63   128   -64  -11  0 20  -11 36 12  -11  0 20  -11 36 12

    130  0  0   -11 37  7   13 48  4    64   128   -65  -11 19 13  -11 55  0  -11 19 13  -11 55  0
    131  0  0   -11 55 33   13 47 53    65   129   -66  -11 37 41  -12 13 23  -11 37 41  -12 13 23
    132  0  0   -12 13 33   13 47 42    66   130   -67  -11 55 43  -12 31 22  -11 55 43  -12 31 22
    133  0  0   -12 31  9   13 47 30    67   130   -68  -12 13 21  -12 48 56  -12 13 21  -12 48 56
    134  0  0   -12 48 19   13 47 19    68   131   -69  -12 30 33  -13  6  4  -12 30 33  -13  6  4

    135  0  0   -13  5  4   13 47  7    68   132   -70  -12 47 21  -13 22 47  -12 47 21  -13 22 47
    136  0  0   -13 21 24   13 46 56    69   133   -71  -13  3 43  -13 39  5  -13  3 43  -13 39  5
    137  0  0   -13 37 19   13 46 44    70   134   -72  -13 19 39  -13 54 58  -13 19 39  -13 54 58
    138  0  0   -13 52 48   13 46 33    71   135   -73  -13 35 10  -14 10 25  -13 35 10  -14 10 25
    139  0  0   -14  7 52   13 46 21    72   136   -74  -13 50 16  -14 25 27  -13 50 16  -14 25 27

    140  0  0   -14 22 30   13 46  9    73   137   -75  -14  4 56  -14 40  3  -14  4 56  -14 40  3
    141  0  0   -14 36 42   13 45 58    73   139   -76  -14 19 10  -14 54 14  -14 19 10  -14 54 14
    142  0  0   -14 50 29   13 45 46    74   140   -77  -14 32 58  -15  7 59  -14 32 58  -15  7 59
    143  0  0   -15  3 51   13 45 35    75   142   -78  -14 46 21  -15 21 19  -14 46 21  -15 21 19
    144  0  0   -15 16 46   13 45 23    76   144   -79  -14 59 19  -15 34 13  -14 59 19  -15 34 13

    145  0  0   -15 29 16   13 45 11    76   147   -80  -15 11 50  -15 46 41  -15 11 50  -15 46 41
    146  0  0   -15 41 20   13 45  0    77   149   -81  -15 23 56  -15 58 44  -15 23 56  -15 58 44
    147  0  0   -15 52 59   13 44 48    78   152   -82  -15 35 36  -16 10 20  -15 35 36  -16 10 20
    148  0  0   -16  4 11   13 44 36    78   155   -83  -15 46 50  -16 21 32  -15 46 50  -16 21 32
    149  0  0   -16 14 58   13 44 25    79   159   -83  -15 57 38  -16 32 17  -15 57 38  -16 32 17

    150  0  0   -16 25 20   13 44 13    79   163   -84  -16  8  1  -16 42 37  -16  8  1  -16 42 37
    151  0  0   -16 35 15   13 44  1    80   167   -85  -16 17 58  -16 52 31  -16 17 58  -16 52 31
    152  0  0   -16 44 45   13 43 50    80   172   -86  -16 27 29  -17  2  0  -16 27 29  -17  2  0
    153  0  0   -16 53 48   13 43 38    80   176   -87  -16 36 34  -17 11  2  -16 36 34  -17 11  2
    154  0  0   -17  2 27   13 43 26    80   181   -88  -16 45 13  -17 19 39  -16 45 13  -17 19 39

    155  0  0   -17 10 39   13 43 15    80   187   -88  -16 53 26  -17 27 50  -16 53 26  -17 27 50
    156  0  0   -17 18 25   13 43  3    80   192   -88  -17  1 14  -17 35 36  -17  1 14  -17 35 36
    157  0  0   -17 25 46   13 42 52    80   197   -88  -17  8 36  -17 42 56  -17  8 36  -17 42 56
    158  0  0   -17 32 41   13 42 40    80   202   -88  -17 15 31  -17 49 50  -17 15 31  -17 49 50
    159  0  0   -17 39 10   13 42 29    80   206   -87  -17 22  1  -17 56 18  -17 22  1  -17 56 18

    160  0  0   -17 45 14   13 42 17    79   211   -86  -17 28  6  -18  2 21  -17 28  6  -18  2 21
    161  0  0   -17 50 51   13 42  6    79   215   -85  -17 33 44  -18  7 57  -17 33 44  -18  7 57
    162  0  0   -17 56  3   13 41 54    79   218   -84  -17 38 57  -18 13  8  -17 38 57  -18 13  8
    163  0  0   -18  0 49   13 41 43    78   222   -83  -17 43 43  -18 17 54  -17 43 43  -18 17 54
    164  0  0   -18  5  9   13 41 32    77   225   -82  -17 48  4  -18 22 14  -17 48  4  -18 22 14

    165  0  0   -18  9  4   13 41 20    77   227   -82  -17 51 59  -18 26  7  -17 51 59  -18 26  7
    166  0  0   -18 12 32   13 41  9    76   230   -81  -17 55 28  -18 29 36  -17 55 28  -18 29 36
    167  0  0   -18 15 35   13 40 58    76   232   -80  -17 58 32  -18 32 38  -17 58 32  -18 32 38
    168  0  0   -18 18 12   13 40 47    75   234   -79  -18  1  9  -18 35 15  -18  1  9  -18 35 15
    169  0  0   -18 20 24   13 40 36    74   236   -78  -18  3 21  -18 37 26  -18  3 21  -18 37 26

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.

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