THE UPDATED PATH

This updated path lies around half a path width to the north of that given by Goffin and around 20 seconds earlier. The path now crosses the north Queensland coastline south of Cairns(11:01 UT) running west to the pass just north of Mount Isa and close to Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory (11:02 UT).

Calculation Source

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho 2 position of the target star has been used.

• Date and approx. UT time of event: 2002 January 25 - 11:01UT
• Magnitude of target star: 10.71
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.8
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.9
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 36, 85%
• Goffin's original chart reference: A02_0117

• Approximate width [km]: 120
• Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 1.5 (95% certainty - asteroid position only)
• Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the expected asteroid positional accuracy ONLY.

• Name: TYC 1370-02403-1
• Constellation: Gemini
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 7h 46m 16.776s; +19^o 05' 25.19"
• Position source: Tycho 2
• V mag [mag]: 10.71
• Remarks:
• The target star is in south eastern Gemini. The star is 34 minutes of arc north of 81 Geminorum (magnitude = 4.9).

• Number, name: (122) Gerda
• Approx. diameter [km]: 86.5
• Source of used astrometry: USNO - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 12
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2001 10 28 - 2002 01 14
• Update computed by: Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, QLD, Australia (Win Occult V2.0)

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.