THE UPDATED PATH

The updated path is virtually coincident with the original Goffin prediction. The path crosses the North Island of New Zealand with the Auckland metropolitan area lying squarely within the occultation shadow at 11:12 UT (about two minutes earlier than the Goffin prediction).

Calculation Source

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from AstDys, and the Hipparcos catalog for the star position.

• Date and approx. UT time of event: 2002 January 16 - 11:12 UT for Auckland
• Magnitude of target star: 8.2
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 6.0
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 24.3
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 146, 8%

• Approximate width [km]: 87
• Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 0.96 (95% certainty - asteroid position only)
• Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the expected asteroid positional accuracy ONLY.

• Name: HIP 57132
• Constellation: Crater
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 11h 42m 48.7045s; -09^o 20' 30.345"
• Position source: Hipparcos
• V mag [mag]: 8.2

• Number, name: (754) Malabar
• Approx. diameter [km]: 87
• Source of used astrometry: USNO - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone); ASTDYS
• Number of used observations: 334
• Number of rejected observations: 33
• Time covered by the observations: 1901 Oct 12 - 2001 Dec 14
• Update computed by: Steve Preston

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.