ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (1243) PAMELA - 2002 JANUARY 12
[Prediction by Edwin Goffin]
[Prediction using OCCULT software]
The prediction given by Goffin passes through the Tasman Sea just missing the northern tip of the North Island of New Zealand and the far southern tip of Tasmania. The path given by Occult using the Tycho 1 star position lies slightly to the west covering far southern Tasmania including Hobart.
UPDATE: 8 JANUARY 2002
THE UPDATED PATH
This updated path lies around 5 path widths to the northwest of that given by Goffin and around 1 minute earlier. The path does not make landfall as it neatly passes through Bass Strait between Tasmania and the Australian mainland.
The error tolerance for this event is quite large and Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Hobart are all just within reasonable prospect of seeing an occultation over the period 13:35 UT to 13:37 UT.
Calculation Source
This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, Bill Owen at JPL - Table Mountain Observatory, California and Gordon Garradd, Loomberah, New South Wales supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used combined with proper motion data from Tycho 2.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: 2002 January 12 - 13:36 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 10.75
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 4.4
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 12.0
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 111, 1%
- Goffin's original chart reference: A02_0156
The Occultation Path:
- Approximate width [km]: 72
- Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 1.53 (1 sigma)
- Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal star position errors and the expected asteroid positional accuracy.
Data for the target star:
- Name: TYC 5502-00098-1
- Constellation: Sextans
- J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 10h 50m 19.5262s; -10o 35' 50.625"
- Position source: UCAC + Tycho 2 PM
- Estimated accuracy ["]: 0.041" (0.030", 0.030")
- V mag [mag]: 10.8
- B-V [mag]: +0.36
- Remarks:
- The target star is far southeastern Sextans. It lies 5.5 degrees north of nu Hydrae (magnitude = 3.1).
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (1243) Pamela
- Approx. diameter [km]: 75.5
- Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen), Gordon Garradd, AstDys
- Number of used observations: 322
- Number of rejected observations: 23
- Time covered by the observations: 1929 12 02 - 2001 12 06
- Update computed by: Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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