ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (1031) ARCTICA - 2002 JANUARY 9
[Prediction by Edwin Goffin]
[Prediction using OCCULT software]
The prediction given Goffin crosses the Wellington/Marlborough area of New Zealand and Tasmania at local sunset. The prediction by OCCULT crosses passes well to the south of both land masses.
UPDATE: 6 JANUARY 2002
THE UPDATED PATH
This updated path lies around 0.5" to south of that given by Goffin and around 90 seconds earlier. The path makes no landfall as it passes almost halfway between the South Island of New Zealand and Antarctica. The time of closest approach for most New Zealand observers will be 9:56:30 UT.
While the error tolerance for this calculation is fairly large, it is unlikely that any occultations involving (1031) Arctica will be visible from any part of New Zealand. Observers are still urged to monitor this event in case there are any satellite objects to (1031) Arctica.
Calculation Source
This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, Bill Owen at JPL - Table Mountain Observatory, California and Gordon Garradd, Loomberah, New South Wales supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used combined with proper motion data from Tycho 2.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: 2002 January 9 - 9:56 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 10.45
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.6
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.4
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 140, 17%
- Goffin's original chart reference: A02_0152
The Occultation Path:
- Approximate width [km]: 125
- Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 0.94 (1 sigma)
- Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal star position errors and the expected asteroid positional accuracy.
Data for the target star:
- Name: TYC 0132-00692-1
- Constellation: Orion
- J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 6h 20m 53.8488s; +0o 30' 45.016"
- Position source: UCAC + Tycho 2 PM
- Estimated accuracy ["]: 0.041" (0.030", 0.030")
- V mag [mag]: 10.5
- B-V [mag]: +0.18
- Remarks:
- The target star is on the border between Orion and Monoceros. It lies 9.4 degrees southeast of Betelgeuse - alpha Orionis (magnitude = 0.6 variable).
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (1031) Arctica
- Approx. diameter [km]: 78
- Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), TMO (Bill Owen), Gordon Garradd, AstDys
- Number of used observations: 316
- Number of rejected observations: 36
- Time covered by the observations: 1913 05 07 - 2001 12 19
- Update computed by: Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
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