THE UPDATED PATH

This updated path lies around a one path width to the south of that given by Goffin with little difference in time. The path crosses the southern parts of Queensland crossing the coast between Bundaberg and Rockhampton at 16:08:30 UT. Running to the northwest, the path passes over Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory at 16:10:20 UT before moving west to the Western Australian coastline just north of Derby at 16:12 UT.

While the error circle given above is quite small, it should be pointed out that it does NOT include any error for the star position - in this case, they are likely to be somewhat larger than the error for the asteroid position. Given the above, Brisbane is an outside chance of an occultation around 16:08:30 UT.

Observers should note that this will be a very difficult event to monitor for those not using large telescopes. The target star is of magnitude 11.8 and the appulse occurs only 29 degrees from a full moon. Higher magnifications and some way of shielding the observer from the moon will improve the observability of this event.

Calculation Source

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho 2 position of the target star has been used.

• Date and approx. UT time of event: 2001 December 30 - 16:10 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 11.79
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.0
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.5
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 29, 100%
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_1220

• Approximate width [km]: 70
• Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 1 (95% certainty - asteroid position only)
• Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the expected asteroid positional accuracy ONLY.

• Name: TYC 0116-00105-1
• Constellation: Orion
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 5h 45m 19.985s; +0^o 03' 03.16"
• Position source: Tycho 2
• V mag [mag]: 11.78
• Remarks:
• The target star is in central eastern Orion. The star is only 24 minutes of arc west of the reflection nebula Messier 78 and 2.3 degrees northeast of zeta Orions = Alnitak (magnitude = 1.9).

• Number, name: (304) Olga
• Approx. diameter [km]: 68.5
• Source of used astrometry: USNO - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 15
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2001 10 11 - 2001 12 17
• Update computed by: Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, QLD, Australia (Win Occult V2.0)

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.