ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (904) ROCKEFELLIA - 2001 DECEMBER 15
[Prediction using OCCULT software]
The prediction given by OCCULT runs from the Mackay/Prosperine area on the central Queensland coast west across central Australia to Perth.
UPDATE: 14 DECEMBER 2001
THE UPDATED PATH
This updated path lies around 0.3" to the southeast of that given by Occult and around one minute earlier. The path now crosses the Queensland coastline around the Maryborough/Hervey Bay area at 14:09 UT. Running southwest, the path crosses southern Queensland and central South Australia to run along the southern coastline of Western Australia. The path is expected around Albany around 14:18 UT.
The error margins in this calculation are larger than some recent updates and Brisbane lies within range at 14:09 UT while Perth is an extreme outside chance at 14:18 UT.
Calculation Source
This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used combined with Tycho 2 proper motion data.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: 2001 December 15 - 14:15 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 11.5
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.5
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 9.6
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 130, 1%
The Occultation Path:
- Approximate width [km]: 75
- Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 1.41 (1 sigma)
- Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal star position errors and the expected asteroid positional accuracy.
- Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!
Data for the target star:
- Name: TYC 0058-01158-1 = TAC +02o01195
- Constellation: Cetus
- J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 3h 05m 08.2391s; + 2o 51' 01.579"
- Position source: UCAC + Tyc 2 Proper Motion
- Estimated accuracy ["]: 0.041" (0.030", 0.030")
- V mag [mag]: 11.5
- Remarks:
- The target star is in far eastern Cetus. It lies 1.4 degrees southeast of Menkaa (alpha Ceti - Magnitude = 2.55).
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (904) Rockefellia
- Approx. diameter [km]: 58
- Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), AstDys
- Number of used observations: 369
- Number of rejected observations: 28
- Time covered by the observations: 1913 10 28 - 2001 10 10
- Update computed by: Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
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