ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (1263) VARSAVIA - 2001 DECEMBER 4
[Prediction using OCCULT software + finder charts]
The prediction given by OCCULT runs several path widths to the south of New Zealand and Tasmania.
UPDATE: 2 DECEMBER 2001
THE UPDATED PATH
This updated path lies around fourth path widths to the north of that given by Occult and around 50 seconds later. The nominal path still does not actually make landfall at any point but passes very close to Stewart Island at 11:27:15 UT and the southern tip of Tasmania at 11:30:15 UT. The path also passes very close to the southern tip of Western Australia in bright twilight at 11:34 UT.
While the path does not appear to make landfall, the error margin on this calculation certainly includes Invercargill and much of Southland at 11:27 UT while Hobart is a bit more of a stretch at 11:30 UT.
Calculation Source
This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, USA and Raoul Behrend of the Observatoire de Geneve supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The Hipparcos position of the target star has been used.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:
- Date and approx. UT time of event: 2001 December 4 - 11:30 UT
- Magnitude of target star: 8.5
- Magnitude drop [mag]: 5.4
- Estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.0
- Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 64, 85%
The Occultation Path:
- Approximate width [km]: 52
- Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 1.17 (1 sigma)
- Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal star position errors and the expected asteroid positional accuracy.
- Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!
Data for the target star:
- Name: HIP 24521 = PPM 248666 = SAO 170244
- Constellation: Lepus
- J2000 position [h,m,s; o,',"]: 5h 15m 39.3484s; -26o 26' 30.730"
- Position source: Hipparcos
- Estimated accuracy ["]: 0.014" (0.007", 0.012")
- V mag [mag]: 8.5
- B-V [mag]: +1.04
- Remarks:
- The target star is in southern Lepus. It lies 2.7 degrees southwest of the globular cluster Messier 79 (magnitude = 7.8). Finder charts are available along with the prediction by clicking here.
Data for the minor planet:
- Number, name: (1263) Varsavia
- Approx. diameter [km]: 49
- Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), Geneva (Raoul Behrend), AstDys
- Number of used observations: 270
- Number of rejected observations: 22
- Time covered by the observations: 1933 03 23 - 2001 11 16
- Update computed by: Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
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