THE UPDATED PATH

This updated path lies around a path width to the north of that given by Goffin and a whole 2 minutes earlier. The path crosses Newcastle on the New South Wales coast around 17:27:30 UT at a relatively low altitude of 21 degrees. Running further west, the path crosses northern New South Wales and South Australia and across the central parts of Western Australia. At the coast, the path includes Carnarvon at 17:32 UT.

The error margins in this calculation certainly include all of Sydney and the Blue Mountains/Bathurst areas around 17:28 UT while Canberra is an outside chance seconds later.

Observers should note that this is a fairly faint star (magnitude = 11.8) made all the more difficult to monitor by the relatively low altitude (for eastern observers) and the presence of an 83% moon only 34 degrees distant. The target star is the faint star at the point of an elongated triangle involving TYC/GSC 1867 1166 (magnitude 10.0) just 1 minute of arc to the northwest. This star is merged with the target star in the Goffin paper printed predictions circulated by the RASNZ Occultation Section.

Calculation Source

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho 2 position of the target star has been used.

• Date and approx. UT time of event: 2001 December 4 - 17:28 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 11.8
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.5
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.4
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 34, 83%
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_1215

• Approximate width [km]: 80
• Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 2 (95% certainty)
• Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the expected asteroid positional accuracy ONLY.
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 1867-00763-1
• Constellation: Taurus
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 5h 51m 58.380s; +24^o 57' 32.11"
• Position source: Tycho 2
• V mag [mag]: 11.8
• Remarks:
• The target star is in northeast Taurus. It lies 46 minutes of arc north east of 132 Tauri (magnitude = 4.9). See the notes above with regards to the neighbouring star field.

• Number, name: (184) Dejopeja
• Approx. diameter [km]: 68.2
• Source of used astrometry: USNO - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 19
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2001 10 04 - 2001 11 22
• Update computed by: Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, QLD, Australia (Win Occult V1.4.7)

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.