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THE UPDATED PATH
This updated path lies around 1.8" to the northwest of that given by Occult and around 3 minutes earlier. The new path crosses southern Papua New Guinea and the island of New Britain around 9:07 UT. Port Moresby lies just to the south of the southern limit while Lae lies just within the northern limit.
The dominant reason for this dramatic shift is related to conflicting data on the target star's position. The position used in Occult to generate the original prediction is based on Tycho 1 as is the similar prediction generated in Guide 7. The dramatically different position used here is sourced from the UCAC program and is in agreement with the position given in Tycho 2. There would appear to be something anomolous about the Tycho 1 position. New Zealand observers are urged to still monitor this event just in case we have picked the wrong star position!
Calculation Source
This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, Bill Owen of Table Moutain Observatory, California, USA supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htmEVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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