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THE UPDATED PATH
This updated path lies around 1.5 path widths to the west of that given by OCCULT with little difference in time. The new path covers the western quarter of Tasmania with Burnie near the eastern edge at 13:54 UT. Across Bass Strait, the path covers much of central Victoria between Sale in the east and Ballarat to the west including all of metropolitan Melbourne at 13:54:30 UT. Albury and all of the ACT lie within the path at 13:55 UT with metropolitan Sydney on the eastern edge 15 seconds later.
Further north, the path covers virtually all of the country east of the Newell Highway including Bathurst, the Blue Mountains, Tamworth and Armidale. At 13:56 UT, the path passes into southeastern Queensland with Brisbane near the centre line. Other centres included in the path are Toowoomba and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.
The error tolerance for this calculation is one of the smaller noted so far. Observers within the nominal path stand a very high chance of observing an event from this large asteroid while observers up to half a path width away also are in with a good chance. Observers further afield should also monitor this event in case of previously unidentified satellites to (94) Aurora.
Observers should note that the event occurs at relatively low altitude over much of the predicted path. In Tasmania, the event will occur with the target star at an altitude of 35 degrees falling to around 20 degrees as seen from Brisbane.
Calculation Source
This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, Bill Owen of Table Moutain Observatory, California, USA and Gordon Garradd of Loomberah, New South Wales, Australia supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htmEVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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