This prediction update has been computed by Steve Kerr of Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho 2 position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This updated path lies around 0.6" to the north of that given by Goffin with little difference in time. The path crosses the northen areas of the North Island of New Zealand covering the area between Rotorua and Warkworth north of Auckland around 13:55 UT. The Bay of Plenty area and East Cape lie just within the southern edge of the path.

In Australia, the path makes landfall around Bega in southern New South Wales and includes Canberra near the northern edge (13:58 UT) and Albury near the southern edge. Further west, the path covers the country between Adelaide and Port Pirie in South Australia (13:59 UT) before running across the head of the Great Australian Bight and southwestern Western Australia to the Shark Bay area at 14:03 UT.

The error tolerance on this calculation is around 1 pathwidth and as such, much of the North Island as well as the Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan areas lie sufficiently close to the path to warrent a special effort by observers.

It is pointed out to observers that the target star is not particularly bright (magnitude = 11.0) and the interference from the waning gibbous moon will make the field hard to identify. The magnitude fall is not very large either and any observer able to comfortably see the star will most probably 'see' the asteroid during the occultation.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: August 8, 2001 @ 13:58 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 10.96
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 17.8
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0833

• Approximate width [km]: 210
• Uncertainty [km]: 150 (95% confidence)
• Map: See below
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 6300-02175-1
• Constellation: Sagittarius
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 19h 17m 45.552s; -18^o 28' 16.31"
• Position source: TYC 2
• V mag [mag]: 10.96
• Remarks:
• The target star is in northeastern Sagittarius. It lies around 28' north of 43 Sagittarii (magnitude = 4.9)

• Number, name: (702) Alauda
• Approx. diameter [km]: 202
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 26
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2001 05 23 - 2001 07 29

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 August 8, 14:02.2 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.01
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.03
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 17.8
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 25.85
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 75, 84%
• Update computed by: Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, Queensland Australia. (Win Occult V1.4).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.