This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of the Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This new updated path lies around 1.5 path widths to the south of that given by Edwin Goffin with little difference in time. The path now misses Stewart Island (12:10 UT) although observers at the southern end of the South Island are still encouraged to monitor this event. The new path grazes the south western extremity of Tasmania at 12:13:30 UT although Hobart still lies well within the error bounds of the calculation. In Western Australia, Perth is now closer to the predicted path at 12:18:30 UT.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: July 14, 2001 @ 12:15 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 10.81
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.7
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0719

• Approximate width [km]: 75
• Map: See below
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 7393-00026-1 = PPM 749595
• Constellation: Sagittarius
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 18h 19m 42.4293s; -30^o 28' 32.243"
• Position source: UCAC
• V mag [mag]: 10.81
• Remarks:
• The target star is in southwestern Sagittarius. It lies only 42' southwest of delta Sagittarii - Kaus Meridionalis (magnitude = 2.7).

• Number, name: (133) Cyrene
• Approx. diameter [km]: 70.1
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), AstDys
• Number of used observations: 305
• Number of rejected observations: 45
• Time covered by the observations: 1908 01 03 - 2001 07 01

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 July 14, 12:1.7 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.80
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.20
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.7
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 26.65
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 115, 43%
• Update computed by: Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.