This prediction update has been computed by Stephen Kerr based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho-2 position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This location of the updated path is virtually unchanged from Edwin Goffin and around 15 seconds earlier. The path includes the southern half of metropolitan Sydney (14:31:10 UT) before skimming the northern edges of Canberra some 10 seconds later. The path crosses into Victoria around Echuca at 14:32 UT before running on to the Millicent area of southeastern South Australia (14:32:40).

Both Melbourne and Adelaide would lie on the edges of the error tolerances of this calculation at 14:32 UT and 14:33 UT respectively.

Observers should note that this will be a difficult event to monitor due to the faintness of the target star and the proximity of a near full moon.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: July 8, 2001 @ 14:32 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 11.47
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.6
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0729

• Approximate width [km]: 80
• Map: See below
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 6345-00665-1 = HD 358608
• Constellation: Capricornus
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 20h 56m 46.917s; -16^o 30' 24.83"
• Position source: Tycho 2
• V mag [mag]: 11.47
• Remarks:
• The target star is in central northern Capricornus. It lies 1.4 degree northeast of 19 Capricorni (magnitude=5.8).

• Number, name: (415) Palatia
• Approx. diameter [km]: 80.1
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 11
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2001 06 08 - 2001 07 01

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 July 8, 14:27.3 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 13.75
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.27
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 2.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.6
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 25.32
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 9, 92%
• Update computed by: Stephen Kerr (Win OCCULT 1.4).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.