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This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of the Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station and Gordon Garradd of Loomberah, New South Wales supplemented with historical data from the AstDys database. The UCAC1 position of the target star combined with Tycho 2 proper motion data has been used.
Summary:
The updated path lies 3 to 4 pathwidths to the southwest of that given by Goffin and around 180 seconds earlier. The new path runs from Broome in Western Australia (17:54 UT) to the southeast across eastern Western Australia and western South Australia. The path then runs along the southeastern coastline of South Australia passing just south of Whyalla (18:06 UT) and including the York Peninsula and Adelaide (18:07 UT). Further southeast, the path leaves the Australian mainland to the west of Cape Otway before including King Island and much of central-western Tasmania. The path is expected at Hobart at 18:13 UT. Launceston lies well within the error tolerances of this calculation at 18:12:30 UT while Melbourne observers stand their best chances at 18:10:30 UT.
Observers should note that on the map below, the path centreline is marked by the circles - not the time graduated lines !!
Observers should also note that the target star is quite faint and may be difficult to locate in the bright moonlit conditions. Plenty of time should be given to field identification. In this particular occultation, the asteroid is moving more slowly than typical (hence the long expected duration) and as such, observers should try to observe for as long as practical around the expected time for their site (say at least 20 minutes).
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm
THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:
IMPORTANT NOTE!
Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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